Since January 2024, relations between South Korea and North Korea have been strained, and friction between the two sides has continued. First and foremost is the abolition of the inter-Korean affairs agency, which marks the blockage of an important channel for dialogue and cooperation between the two sides and exacerbates uncertainty on the peninsula. Immediately after, the United States sent three aircraft carriers to the Asia-Pacific region, a move that was undoubtedly a tough gesture against North Korea and a support for its ally South Korea. In response, North Korea announced strategic cruise missile training to demonstrate its military capabilities, with the intention of raising the bargaining stakes through a show of strength.
This series of events has made the situation in Northeast Asia more complicated and tense. In the face of the current situation, the future trend of the situation on the peninsula has become the focus of attention of the international community.
The impasse in inter-Korean relations
According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) 16**, the 10th session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK was held in Pyongyang on the 15th. On the same day, the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK issued a decision to abolish the DPRK and ROK affairs institutions, such as the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland and the Mt. Kumgang International Tourism Bureau. At the meeting on the 15th, Kim Jong-un said that he would clearly demarcate the border line between the two Koreas and not accept the "northern line".
The abolition of the inter-Korean affairs agency is a clear sign of the deterioration of relations between the two sides. The abolition of the body, which was once an important platform for communication and problem-solving, means that the two sides will face greater obstacles to dialogue and cooperation. Without effective communication channels, misunderstandings and suspicions are more likely to accumulate, increasing the risk of accidental conflicts. Kim Jong-un has repeatedly stressed that inter-Korean relations are "no longer homogeneous" but completely hostile. According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean side said it would firmly defend and guard the line. Some analysts have pointed out that the most controversial point on the issue of demarcation between the DPRK and the ROK is the "northern limit." The latest statements from the two Koreas may signal an increased risk of confrontation or even conflict near the Northern Limit.
On 25 January, as the US aircraft carrier "Theodore Roosevelt" appeared in the US Navy's Seventh Fleet operational area, the aircraft carrier joined the "Reagan" and "Carl Vinson," and the three nuclear-powered aircraft carriers were all carrying out their duties in the operational area. The U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet is covering the Korean Peninsula. The United States has dispatched three aircraft carriers to the Asia-Pacific region, claiming to be a direct response to North Korea's continuous tests and military provocations. This action is intended to demonstrate the United States' commitment to its allies, but also to deter North Korea, and more implicitly, to make South Korea willingly pay "protection money". However, such a military deployment could also exacerbate North Korea's sense of insecurity and prompt it to further strengthen its military preparations, leading to a further escalation of tensions.
According to the Korean Central News Agency on January 31, North Korea conducted a strategic cruise missile launch training on the 30th. According to information released by South Korea's Joint Staff Headquarters, North Korea fired several cruise missiles into the waters west of the peninsula.
North Korea's announcement of strategic cruise missile training is a demonstration of its military capabilities to the international community, especially deterrence capabilities against the United States and its allies, and a tough response to the stationing of three U.S. aircraft carriers in Northeast Asia. Such exercises are not only a response to external pressures, but also for internal political stability, consolidating the position of the leadership through a demonstration of military might.
In the face of the current tense situation, the future direction of the situation on the Korean Peninsula will depend on many factors, including the foreign policy adjustments of various countries, the involvement and mediation efforts of the international community, and the policy choices of the ROK and the DPRK themselves.
On the one hand, if the international community, especially the United States, China, and Russia, can play an active role in pushing the two sides back to the dialogue table and resolving their differences through diplomatic means, then the situation on the peninsula is expected to be eased.
However, for the big powers now, it is impossible for Russia to shift its focus to Northeast Asia for the time being because of the Russia-Ukraine war. China is also waiting and watching because of Yoon Suk-yeol's small actions, and the stability of the peninsula is the most important thing for China. On the other hand, the United States is insisting on a confrontational posture and raising the level of military provocation by sending three aircraft carriersFor the United States, the unstable situation in Northeast Asia can better harvest South Korean assets, allow South Korea's high-end manufacturing and capital to be transferred to the United States, and from the overt increase in military spending during the Trump era, to the more subtle "protection fee" through the deterioration of the situation.
In short, peace and stability in the North-East Asian region require the joint efforts of all parties. The two Koreas should seek to resume dialogue and reduce tensions; The international community, especially the major powers, should actively participate in mediation and provide support and solutions for the settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue. Only through peaceful dialogue and diplomacy can lasting peace and stability be achieved on the peninsula and in the entire North-East Asian region.
February** Dynamic Incentive Program