Revelation from 2009
Do you remember that last year someone in the village came out and said that Europe and the United States are white-eyed wolves, forgetting that we saved them during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2009?!
Putting aside the debate on the Internet, at least that's the case.
What's more, since the people in the village said it, it means that the people in the village think so, and there should be no problem with this.
Since China and the United States got it in 2018, there is no possibility of stopping it for the time being.
In addition, during 2021 and 2022, there were different bigwigs in the village who publicly sang about the United States no less than 10 times.
In other words, this is also what the village thinks will happen.
Whether we agree with it or not, it is interesting to see these two views in the village in a coherent manner:
In the 2009 subprime mortgage crisis, we saved the white-eyed wolves in Europe and the United States, but in exchange for their desperate efforts to suppress us, and there is no bottom line. Now that Europe and the United States are facing greater financial risks, we will not save them this time.
Let's recall that the practice in 2009 was that we bailed out the market earlier than the Americans, and then in early 2010, the bailout started a wave of high inflation in the country.
In essence, it is China that has helped the United States absorb a lot of debt pressure and inflationary pressure, which is equivalent to the United States passing on a lot of burdens to us.
However, the approach in this round of villages is completely different.
Whether the Americans are releasing water in 2020 or collecting water in 2022, we are in a standard posture:
Defend it!
There is no way for such international hot money to come in, and there is no strong enough motivation to get in.
As for 2023, that is, the international capital backed by the United States does not want to come in and wants to short you.
This also means that China not only did not help Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea to bear inflation, but also had very limited financial products and debts.
Therefore, if there is any financial risk here in the United States in the future, it will have nothing to do with us.
If we think of the global economy as a large economy, the Fed is the central bank, and the central bank of China is the commercial bank.
So, the normal scenario is that the Fed is desperately releasing water, and after entering the Chinese market, the central bank of China has to print more yuan at the latest exchange rate, thus exacerbating the rise in inflation in us.
That's how 2009 works!
If the harvest is to be harvested, it is the Fed desperately collecting water, and a large amount of hot money that previously flowed into China will be returned to the People's Bank of China with the newly printed yuan, that is, the exchange rate will face a significant impact.
At the same time, by targeting our Hong Kong offshore market, Chinese dollar bonds (real estate), local bonds, etc., it will have a significant impact on us.
This is the tidal effect of the US dollar, plus fixed-point shorting, basically no other country can afford it. In line with the expectation of decoupling and future military conflicts, the layout of financial warfare is very methodical.
However, did the above happen? No!
Why not?
First of all, since June 2020, we have been free of additional monetary stimulus.
Secondly, in January 2021, real estate and big A will be regulated.
Thirdly, all Chinese concept stocks related to U.S. stocks happened to be given an opportunity, and the village also seized the opportunity to rectify it.
As a result, not much hot money has come in, so the outflows that began in 2022 have been very limited.
It's just that the U.S. war, science and technology war, and financial war are indeed very powerful, and they are also desperately trying to divert funds into several economies around us that have good relations with the United States to cause a siphon effect on us.
However, it is precisely because there was too little hot money that entered us during the previous period of the Fed's extreme water release, that is, the soil for shorting was not thick, so the effect of this wave of various operations was greatly reduced.
If in 2020 we release water for 2 years like the rest of the world and rise together, then the result is unknown.
You have to be very clear that the time for Americans to play games can be very long.
Just like in 2014, a large number of underground fortresses have been built in eastern Ukraine with the help of the Americans, and Putin only realized it in the past two years, and this is a lesson from the past.
In the same way, the current round of financial warfare against us by the United States has been deliberately planned for many years.
Assuming that we let international hot money come in at that time, I am afraid that now it is not as simple as domestic deflation, but the national fortune has already ended.
According to the American routine, if an economy turns around in the long run, it will come up with plenty of reasons to say that you have violated the principles of a free market economy.
In other words, it has nothing to do with the American harvest, it is you who can't do it yourself, it's you who mess around, it's as simple as that.
However, Americans will not tell you that one of the topics that many international organizations have done to study so many economies around the world is why East Asia is very prosperous in intervening in the economy, but the success rate of manufacturing is far higher than that of most of the world.
As development economics has said, stability is more important than democracy and is more conducive to economic development.
This is like the defeat of the Qing Dynasty to the British Empire, which was said to be due to the isolation of the Qing Dynasty.
This is nonsense!
The Qing Dynasty did not even have a customs, and after the implementation of the "Treaty of Nanjing", the tariff dominance was in the hands of the British, and overseas manufacturing products directly crushed the handicraft industry of the Qing Dynasty, which was the root of the complete decline of the Qing Dynasty. It's not that you can't close the door yourself, but like today's Argentine Milla, the country is completely open and harvested. On the other hand, for more than 100 years after the founding of the United States, it has always been the Republican Party's protectionism, which has cultivated the world's best advanced manufacturing industry.
Isn't it magical? I'm subverting many people's deep-seated understanding of the fall of the Qing Dynasty, but I'm sorry, that's our attitudeTell you about the real worldThe Qing Dynasty did not die in seclusion, but in complete openness.
Saying this today is to remind everyone that economic history must be studied economically, not abstract concepts.
If we start to fully embrace international hot money in 2020, there will be a wave of hype that everyone will be developed, and then the wealth of decades of reform and opening up will be taken away by Wall Street.
For example, everyone says that Japan has been lost for 30 years, but this is not true.
In the early 90s, after the bursting of the bubble in Japan was lost for a few years.
Then, the United States will PUA Japan, you have to get out of the predicament, you have to open up in an all-round way, you want freedom.
As a result, Japan began to engage in financial liberalization around 95 years, and international capital flowed in and out at will, as well as its own savings.
This makes it the first time that Wall Street in the United States can directly participate in the control of Japan's most bullish top chaebols, behind which are all big American bosses; The story of the so-called "Mrs. Watanabe" is the story of the so-called "Mrs. Watanabe".
It is precisely for this reason that Japan went from being lost for 5 years to being lost for 30 years, and it could never get out of it again, and it completely became an economic colony of the United States. Japan's post-World War II economic autonomy has been completely lost.
Then Japan is an ally of the United States, and the United States still reaps like this, but fortunately, there is still a way to live.
What about us?
As long as we can harvest successfully with low-cost finance, do you think the United States will give us a second chance to rise?
Therefore, once the US strategy fails in this round of financial warfare, the United States will definitely implement financial warfare through reverse operations in the future20。
Now it is a pump short, and in the future, it will be a release of water to export inflation to China, so that China has to go the way of 2009.
For today's United States, if there is no China, the "gas station of national fortune", the United States will continue to be bullish for decades, why should it be?
Finally, economic history tells us that the history of the United States in the true implementation of a liberal economy accounts for less than 1 4 percent of the entire founding time of the United States. Why? Please taste it!
Also, Why did the United States have a Great Depression? Isn't it the United States that has spent a hundred years protecting and intervening in the industry?
This is the view of Korean economists, the pumping ladder effect. The developed countries will never be allowed to follow the path of success, and the developing countries will never be allowed to do the same. On the contrary, there is stigmatization.