First, the origin of the project
Emerging specialized and intensive farming model. After years of long-term practice of beef cattle breeding mode, China is forming a special beef cattle breeding industry, and the specialized and intensive beef cattle breeding model of beef production rate is higher, beef cattle slaughter speed is faster, and the quality of beef products is better. By cross-breeding and improving China's local beef cattle breeds with foreign high-quality Charolais, Simmental, Limousin, Hayford and other special beef cattle breeds to be more suitable for China's breeding environment (such as Yunnan's "Yunling cattle", etc.), this not only improves the production performance of China's beef cattle, but also is conducive to the development of large-scale and intensive breeding, relying on the "company + farmer" and other breeding business models, through "large-scale production + specialized processing + chain management" Meet the growing demand for beef products.
With the stop of the decline of fattening cattle in early June 2023 and the ** in July, the confidence of some cattle investors was instantly boosted, and many people began to be optimistic that they had ushered in the opportunity to hit the bottom, and immediately began to snap up the calves and shelf cattle to fill the bar, and at the same time to hold the fattening cattle to be sold in the barn, and in July 2023, with the intensification of the price sentiment and speculation, it has caused the illusion of a serious shortage of fattening cattle.
2. Project background
Cattle breeding is an industry with a long history, as early as the Qin and Han dynasties in China, the production areas of cattle have been distributed throughout the country. The cattle industry is divided into two types: official shepherding and private herding, both of which have different degrees of development, and the experience of husbandry, management, protection, and veterinary technology has been accumulated for a long time, and there has been a trend of commercialization. Prior to the 80s, cattle were protected as a farming tool,** and the slaughter of young and middle-aged cattle was prohibited.
Early stage of commercialization (1979 to 1990) With the popularization of agricultural machinery, people began to gradually convert traditional service cattle to beef cattle breeding, and gradually introduced excellent cattle breeds to improve local cattle. In 1979, the state began to invest in the construction of a beef cattle production base. In order to accelerate the progress of cattle improvement, the Ministry of Agriculture has established 144 cattle breeding base counties across the country, and gradually formed a production pattern based on raising service cattle (farmers' cultivated land) and supplemented by beef cattle, such as the three northern counties (Dachang, Xianghe, Sanhe) in Langfang District, Hebei Province, gradually forming large-scale production.
Rapid development period (1991 to 2006) In order to support the development of the beef cattle industry, the state has issued a number of policies to encourage the development of "straw animal husbandry" in rural areas, and the breeding of beef cattle has gradually shifted from the areas where grassland productivity is declining to the central plains and northeast regions, which are rich in straw resources. In the 21st century, beef cattle farming began to develop in the southwest and northwest regions of the country. Since 1991, the beef cattle breeding industry has begun to grow rapidly, and more than 1,000 beef cattle fattening farms have appeared, and a relatively complete beef cattle production link has gradually formed. By 2006, the number of beef cattle slaughtered in the country reached 4226820,000 heads. Among them, the increase in beef cattle production was mainly due to the effectiveness of breed improvement; For example, the improvement of grassland red cattle, Xinjiang brown cattle, and Xiza cattle is the breed basis of China's modern beef cattle industry.
Adjustment and development period (2007 to present) Since 2007, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Finance have provided a lot of financial support for large-scale beef cattle breeding, on the other hand, affected by the rising cost of beef cattle breeding in China, the market has been accelerated, and China's beef cattle inventory has been in a trough period in 2010 and 2018. Since 2017, China's beef consumption has grown explosively, and a large number of capital from all walks of life has poured into the beef cattle breeding industry, the pace of commercial production of beef cattle breeding has accelerated, large-scale breeding enterprises have emerged, and the proportion of large-scale production has increased rapidly, making the domestic beef cattle breeding volume show a recovery growth in the later period. At the end of 2022, the national cattle herd reached 102.16 million heads.
The current situation of beef cattle breeding in China.
1.Individual family farm model: based on their own land or public waste land, the scale is based on their own wishes, the breeding technology in the north is better than that in the south, and the management is centered on their own people;
2.Bankruptcy dairy farming community transformation model: the original farmers from dairy farming to beef cattle breeding, dairy bull fattening as the basic cattle source, breeding technology in accordance with their own dairy cow standards to improve and develop their own breeding template;
3.Open up the secondary industry evil sword model: they have other businesses, influenced by others to think that beef cattle breeding is profitable, and begin to invest in beef cattle breeding, this kind of basic strength is weak, technology relies on others to transmit or ponder their own development, and the loss is much greater than the above two breeding models;
4.Grazing semi-grazing breeding: make full use of local resources, self-breeding and self-raising with the standard of breeding basic cows, and the length of the grazing cycle varies according to different places, and the technology will be more backward than the above three breeding modes;
5.Group breeding: based on large ranches, through loans or local support, the use of local resources based on self-breeding, the recruitment of professional and technical personnel in the animal husbandry industry for scientific management, in accordance with the dairy farm breeding standards as a reference to beef cattle breeding, the technical aspects have been greatly improved and improved than the above breeding models.
At this stage, the beef cattle breeding mode is different, the north cattle and the south are generally raised, the northwest, northeast and Inner Mongolia are mainly breeding, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi and Anhui and other regions are mainly fattening, and the varieties are mostly Simmental, and some areas are fattened with dairy calves or dairy farms, and Yunnan, Guichuan and other southern regions are based on the development direction of breeding cows and self-breeding.
Beef cattle breeding model in the new era:
With the rapid development of the beef cattle industry structure and the country's focus on environmental protection, the individual production and operation model and grazing breeding will gradually be replaced by the whole industry chain business model of the company's base plus farmers and beef cattle breeding.
Only the model of the whole industrial chain of the integration of the company's base and farmers and beef cattle breeding can reduce costs and promote the healthy and sustainable development of beef cattle breeding. The company is responsible for coordinating the training of financial resources and professional talents; The base is responsible for centralized breeding, fattening program formulation and slaughtering; Farmers mainly raise fattening cattle. This can solve several relatively large problems in domestic beef cattle breeding and restrict the development of beef cattle breeding.
1.Low fertility and breed improvement problems in breeding cows. At present, most of the beef cattle in the market are still mostly bred by local breeding, and the biggest reason is the lack of technical personnel and scientific feeding management concepts. Self-bred bulls do not have good strain stability, and artificial insemination does not have professionals, so breed improvement cannot be continued in many places.
The whole industrial chain of the company's base plus farmers and beef cattle breeding can easily solve this problem. The company provides professional technology, and the base carries out intensive breeding, and then hands over the small breeding cattle to farmers for breeding or fattening. This can not only ensure the continuous improvement of the breed, but also solve the cattle loss caused by the stress of long-distance transportation;
2.Food safety of beef. Just as dairy enterprises now purchase fresh milk from dairy farms, the whole industrial chain of beef cattle breeding integration can also carry out drug residues and pathogenic microorganisms detection for beef production to ensure food safety;
3.The bargaining power of beef cattle farming. In the small-scale farming model of one household, the bargaining power of farmers and farms is very limited. The company's base plus farmer model and the whole industrial chain of beef cattle breeding integration will unite farmers and greatly increase the bargaining power of farmers. The brand products derived from the whole industry chain can increase the breeding benefits of farmers;
4.Information sharing and application. Under the whole industry chain, information is shared, and the collection and feedback analysis of slaughtering data is more conducive to the maintenance and improvement of varieties; It also has better guidance for beef cattle feeding and nutrition management.
3. Market analysis
The Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day are considered to be the peak consumption seasons, but they have not been able to make cattle prices rise. Before and after the National Day, the transaction price of fattening cattle in most areas is basically around 13-16 yuan. When most farmers think that the price of cattle and sheep will rise during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and wait until the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day to ship together, it will be the opposite of everyone's thoughts.
China's beef cattle industry in 2023 will be in surplus. Southeast Asian smuggling of live cattle will begin to resume normal entry in January 2023, the tide of dairy cow slaughter will intensify, the situation of a high proportion of slaughtered cows with breeding cows, and the economic environment will continue to weaken - determined that China's beef cattle ** simply do not have the realistic conditions for a large number of full-line**.
In the past few years, cattle prices have continued to improve, China's beef cattle have maintained a so-called high level, coupled with various subsidy policies, and a large number of large-scale farms have appeared in China. The number of breeding cows continues to accumulate, the number of live cattle continues to rise, and the production capacity of beef cattle continues to increase.
Some data show that in the past few years since 2017, the total number of beef cattle in China has doubled.
The three-year strict epidemic prevention and control system has isolated a large number of foreign and smuggled cattle products, which has actually played a protective role in cattle prices.
Such protection cannot be the norm, nor should it be the norm from the perspective of the economy as a whole. Once the epidemic prevention and control system is lifted, foreign beef products will flood the Chinese market from various channels, and the supply of beef cattle will increase greatly due to the doubling of the local stock.
Beef imports through formal channels increased. According to Chinese customs data, beef imports in the first four months of this year were 830,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons from the same period last year. In addition to the increase in imports this year, a large amount of beef imported in the early stage is also being put on the market. In the past two years, a large number of imported beef have been sold at reduced prices in the market due to the expiration date, and there are about 350,000-450,000 tons of expiring beef on the market this year.
There is a view that the "historical peak" of China's beef cattle ** appeared in 2020, from the end of 2019 to the beginning of March 2023, China's fattening cattle ** maintained a "high sideways period" for more than 3 years - the extremely strict epidemic prevention and control system "has indeed played a vacuum protection role for China's beef cattle**, after the "new crown pneumonia" epidemic prevention and control system was lifted in January 2023, smuggled live cattle in Southeast Asia and smuggled beef products from all over the world began to flock to China one after another, "live cattle**, fresh beef**, frozen beef**" in the Chinese market will begin to appear in mid-March 2023, and it is irrational and unsober to always fantasize and wait for "beef cattle** to return to the historical peak height of 2020".
In the third quarter of 2022, China's beef cattle industry has entered the 21st century for the second time. The ability of feeder cattle in the Chinese market will start to improve.
It is expected that the "breeding cow slaughtering tide" in the autumn and winter of 2023 will be very serious, and the phenomenon of farmers and herdsmen slaughtering breeding cows and selling beef directly will be very common, so in the second half of 2023, there is almost no possibility of the emergence of the whole line of beef cattle in China, and we must be vigilant against the risk of the whole line.
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Feasibility study report