"It's not that Northern Europe can't afford to go, but Harbin is more cost-effective." Recently, Harbin ice and snow travel has frequently appeared on the hot search circle, and the big consumption related to the tourism sector has been strong day after day. According to the secondary industry classification of Shenwan, as of January 10, the tourism and scenic spot sector has been ranked at **9 in the last ten trading days37% led the way.
In this round of **, Changbai Mountain (603099SH) has won seven consecutive boards, and its stock price has doubled in the last 10 trading days, and it has issued an announcement on serious abnormal fluctuations in trading for several consecutive trading days; Dalian Shengya (600593SH) has also made 5 consecutive boards, and its stock price has risen by more than 67% in the last 10 trading days; Jiuhua Tourism (603199.)SH), Tianmu Lake (603136SH), Mount Emei A (000888SZ), *Tourism (600749SH) and many other ** have risen by more than 10% in the same period.
The reporter noticed that the above-mentioned many **this strong** may make many investors "excited", and the trading volume has expanded recently, and there are obvious signs of speculation. However, there are not many heavy positions in the public offering, and this round seems to have been "missed" by most of the managers.
Tourism** has risen considerably.
Since the beginning of the year, with the popularity of ice and snow tourism cities such as Harbin, tourism-related sectors have slammed a wave of "presence". Wind data shows that in the first 10 trading days to January 10, the tourism and scenic spot index (801993) range**937%, ranking first among 124 sub-sectors, higher than the second place by 31 percentage point, far exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index -073% of the year-on-year performance.
On the disk, among the 21 constituent stocks, 18 ushered in the **range**, and 8 rose by more than 10%. Among them, the share price of Changbaishan has doubled in the last ten trading days, with a cumulative increase of 10477%。It is worth noting that the stock has been up and down for 7 trading days so far in 2024.
As of January 10**, Changbaishan's share price has increased from 14 ten days ago25 yuan rose to 2918 yuan, and the market value rose from 3.8 billion yuan to 7.8 billion yuan. The reporter noticed that during the continuous board period, Changbaishan issued **abnormal fluctuations or**transaction risk warning announcements on January 4, 6, 9, and 10, 2024 respectively.
After January 10, due to the cumulative deviation of more than 100% in 10 consecutive trading days, Changbaishan issued an announcement on serious abnormal fluctuations in trading. The company said that at the end of October 2023, the hosting business of Heping Ski Resort contributed less than 1% to the overall revenue in 2023, and the company's ice and snow project revenue accounted for a relatively small proportion of the company's overall revenue, and the company's main business is still tourism passenger business and hotel business, and there are no other major changes in fundamentals.
In addition, the announcement also said that the static price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio indicators of Changbai Mountain are significantly higher than the average level of the same industry, and there is a risk of overheating market sentiment and irrational speculation. As of January 10, Changbaishan's latest rolling P/E ratio was 5904, the latest price-to-book ratio is 670。
Coincidentally, Dalian Shengya, which also attracted market attention, gained 5 consecutive boards from January 3 to 9. According to the data, as of January 10, Dalian Shengya has accumulated 67 in the last ten trading days84%, during which due to the excessive short-term increase and several abnormal fluctuation announcements were issued to prompt.
Dalian Shengya said that the company's main business is mainly the operation of the Polar Aquarium scenic spot, the commercial operation of the scenic spot and the operation of animals, and there has been no major change in the current production and operation activities. As of January 9, 2024, its rolling price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio indicators are significantly higher than the industry average. As of January 10, the stock was priced at 311 yuan share, with a total market value of 4 billion yuan.
The reporter noticed that the recent turnover of the above two ** has been significantly enlarged. Wind data shows that in December 2023, the average daily turnover of Changbaishan and Dalian Shengya was 09.6 billion yuan, 16.6 billion yuan, the average daily turnover from the beginning of the year to January 10 has risen to 62.2 billion yuan, 34.4 billion yuan. Among them, the turnover of the two on January 10 was further enlarged, respectively, 146.2 billion yuan, 9$1.4 billion.
At the same time, multi-way travel capital is also involved. Taking Changbai Mountain as an example, the stock has been on the Dragon and Tiger list three times this year, and the interval Dragon and Tiger List is **22.9 billion yuan, sold 39.2 billion yuan. For example, on January 9, the top five seats on the ** list purchased a total of 56988.3 billion yuan, and the sell list is in the "shipment" 6642400 million yuan. Among them, in addition to the business department of Hanzhong Street in the west for ordinary seats, Guojun Nanjing Taiping South Road, Oriental Fortune Lhasa Financial City South Ring Road and other 9 business offices are all tourist seats.
However, this round of tourism sector does not seem to have been "captured" by the public offering in advance. According to the data of the third quarter report of 2023, among the 8 tourism and scenic spot sectors with more than 10% in the past 10 trading days, only 5 are included in the top 10 heavy stocks by a small number of products, with a total market value of 27.6 billion yuan.
For example, Changbai Mountain, which has doubled its stock price, has only three ** products with heavy positions. Among them, Jinxin Consumption Upgrade A, Wells Fargo CSI Entertainment Theme Index Enhanced A, and Jinxin Quantitative Select A held 83760,000 shares, 11530,000 shares, 10370,000 shares, totaling 105660,000 shares.
The most heavily held is Emeishan A, which has accumulated **14 in the 10 trading days ending January 1039%, the latest quarterly report data shows that it is heavily held by 25 ** products under 11 ** companies, with a total shareholding of 1441280,000 shares. The number of heavy positions in Jiuhua Tourism, Tianmu Lake, **Tourism, etc. is only in single digits, and the holdings are all below 3 million shares.
The resurgence of big consumption?
High-quality experience is the core expectation of consumers for tourism, and Harbin provides tourists with a full range of high-quality ice and snow travel experience from clothing, food, housing and transportation, which has been well received by the people of the whole country. Wu Yue, director of Harvest ** consumption research, told reporters that it is expected that with the improvement of the brand power of Harbin ice and snow tourism, the income of ice and snow tourism will reach a new high.
In Wu Yue's view, the recovery of domestic tourist flow and income on New Year's Day in 2024 is better than that in November 2023, and it is also better than the recovery of income on May Day. The excellent performance of tourism data during the New Year's Day holiday is a good start, and the consumer industry is expected to achieve good performance in 2024.
In fact, in the past two years, relevant policies to promote consumption have continued to exert force. For example, in order to promote consumption, the Ministry of Commerce has established 2023 as the "Year of Consumption Boost"; In 2024, it will focus on promoting the continuous expansion of consumption, and it will be designated as the "Year of Consumption Promotion".
On the policy side, efforts have been made to promote recovery, and multi-faceted activities have been implemented to promote the overall recovery of the tourism industry. A brokerage analyst said that looking forward to 2024, the recovery of large consumption is still one of the main lines worth paying attention to, and whether the performance can be repaired or even increased may be the key to the differentiation of consumer stocks. "From a valuation point of view, after the previous sharp **, many consumer stocks have gradually entered a reasonable layout range. He said.
China Merchants ** Quantitative Investment Department also believes that domestic consumption will gradually recover in 2023, under the influence of assets, income, expectations and other factors, residents will be more cautious in their consumption decisions, pay more attention to cost performance, and travel and catering and other service consumption will recover faster; The recovery trend is expected to continue in 2024, and we will pay attention to the boosting effect of macroeconomic improvement and the restoration of consumer confidence.
Yongying** investment researchers told reporters that with the endogenous recovery of the economy and the alleviation of the "scarring effect" of residents after the epidemic, consumption is expected to further stabilize and constitute the foundation of the domestic economy in 2024. In terms of rhythm, under the effect of the base, the domestic economy may show a trend of "low in the front, high in the middle, and stable in the future".
The investment researcher said: "Overall, the general environment in the first half of the year may be in the stage of steady recovery of the domestic economy, reasonable and abundant liquidity, and overseas game Fed interest rate cuts, that is, the growth is good and the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed slightly, and the market is expected to deduce a slight upward trend based on valuation repair."
However, some people in the industry believe that the current time point still needs to be cautious. "Back to the disk, the market hotspots are still scattered and rapidly rotating, and the direction of some of the strength is relatively limited for the index or the leading sentiment. A leading investment researcher in East China said in an exchange with reporters that the market may continue to build a bottoming structure in the short term.