The International Labour Organization's latest World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 report shows that while the labour market has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a deteriorating economic environment, global unemployment will rise and inequality will rise in 2024 due to factors such as the uneven post-pandemic recovery.
The report found that both the unemployment rate and the jobs gap (the number of unemployed people who want to work) are below pre-pandemic levels. The global unemployment rate in 2023 is 51%, up from 5 in 20223% is a slight improvement. In 2023, the global employment gap and labor market participation rate also improved.
The report also finds that behind these figures, vulnerabilities are also beginning to emerge. Both the outlook for the labor market and global unemployment will deteriorate, according to the report. In 2024, 2 million new job seekers are expected to be added, resulting in a global unemployment rate that will increase from 5.5 in 20231% rises to 52%。Disposable incomes have fallen in most G20 countries, while inflation-induced declines in living standards are generally "unlikely to recover in the short term".
There are still significant differences between high-income and low-income countries. In 2023, the jobs gap rate in high-income countries is 82 per cent, compared to 20 in low-income countries5%。Similarly, the unemployment rate in high-income countries will remain at 4 in 20235% compared to 5 in low-income countries7%。
This is despite the fact that since 2020, the world's working population living in extreme poverty (per capita daily income at purchasing power parity is less than 2.).$15) is rapidly decreasing, but in 2023, this group still adds 1 million people. In 2023, workers living in moderate poverty (per capita daily income at purchasing power parity is less than 3.$65) by 8.4 million people.
Income inequality has also widened, while lower real disposable incomes "are not conducive to [boosting] aggregate demand and a more sustainable economic recovery," the report warns.
The report also shows that the proportion of informal work will not change much, accounting for 58% of the global workforce in 2024. At the same time, the extent to which labor market participation rates have recovered to pre-pandemic levels varies among different groups. Women's participation has rebounded rapidly, but gender gaps remain significant, especially in emerging and developing countries. Youth unemployment remains a challenge. The proportion of unemployed, uneducated or untrained youth ("NEET") remains high, especially among young women, posing a challenge to long-term employment prospects.
For those who have returned to the workforce after the pandemic, the number of sick days has increased significantly, the report said.
After a brief post-pandemic upswing, labor productivity has returned to the slump of growth over the past decade. Despite technological advances and increased investment, this problem still exists. One reason for this is that a lot of investment has gone to less productive sectors such as services and construction. Other barriers include skills shortages and the dominance of large digital monopolies, which hinder the rapid adoption of technology, especially in developing countries and industries dominated by low-productivity firms.
ILO Director-General Gilbert Hombau said the report** addresses the issues behind key labour market data and that the issues it reveals must be addressed. The imbalances in the labour market do not appear to be due solely to the post-pandemic recovery, but rather to structural issues, with the labour-related challenges identified in the report posing a threat to both individual livelihoods and businesses. We must address it effectively and expeditiously. Persistently declining living standards and low productivity, combined with stubbornly high inflation, will create deeper levels of inequality. Without broader social justice, we will never achieve a sustainable recovery. Gilbert Humber said.