Xiao Mu emphasized in yesterday's review that after breaking a new low, the trading volume will be released, and then a short-term over-fall***
Now the views are verified one by one, the current ** does not have the conditions for reversal, and the probability of bullishness is also very low.
Because the bull market is divided into three kinds, the first is the bull market of currency speculation, which is only experienced by old stockholders, that is, the wave of super mad bulls in 05**. The second is the macro economy, the GDP growth rate is bullish, that is, in 14 years, all kinds of industry, real estate, Haikou, infrastructure, transportation, etc., have gone through a bull market with a growth rate**!The latest wave of bull market is a policy bull, and this wave in 20 years is this wave of masks. It is also a lot of opportunities.
Last year, it did release a lot of policy benefits, but the macro data performed poorly, and A-shares did not do much, and they were relatively weak!This year, the opening of the door fell 5 times in a row, and today is ushered in an over-falling reversal**. Trading volume is sluggish. Still no sign of **starting!
Xiao Mu continues to make his point of view clear here, today's slight increase in volume is not the performance of the main force to enter the long, and the amount of energy of 670 billion is to support the ** of A shares!If there is no major policy intervention, then this over-falling reversal will soon end, and the low point broken today is not the lowest point, and it may continue to break in the short term!
Xiao Mu made a clear point of view above, let's take a look at today's overall **.
By the end of **, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen by 020%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 027%, the GEM index soared 037%！
Northbound funds originally had an outflow of 2 billion, but after reaching **, it only flowed into 01.9 billion, the main funds smashed very little in the morning, and after the **, 113 outflowed1.5 billion!
On the whole, ** has picked up, and we finally don't have to lose money!
But Xiao Mu's point of view above is very clear, it is an over-fall**, and it will not last long!
Clause. First, today is just a retaliatory reversal after the emotional freezing point, we can see from the number of ups and downs, there are more than 3,700 ** for several consecutive days, after the emotional freezing point, it is easy to come out of today's **, the number of families has become more than 3,000.
Clause. Second, the amount of energy is insufficient, and there is no panic plate and meat cutting plate, so it also shows in disguise that the opponent of the main force is still lying flat in this position!
Clause. 3. There is no bottom in history that is a small white candlestick bottoming out. Such a weak one** must not be a big capital to go**. Therefore, if the main force does not get the chips, it means that it will continue to break through the defense line in people's hearts, which means that today's lowest point will fall below!
In fact, we can see from the rising plate that the opening has pulled up the direction of track technology, but the big capital has gone to high dividends, high dividends, coal direction, and the direction of treasury bonds, and we have seen that treasury bonds have also risen a lot!
The funds have gone to hedge!
Clause. Fourth, back to the mood, the peripheral U.S. stocks have risen sharply, and Xiao Mu saw a newsDeutsche Bank expects the ECB to start cutting rates in April and cut rates by 100 basis points quicklyto prevent a rapid rise in real interest rates and avoid a prolonged recessionFor the full year of 2024, interest rates are expected to be cut by 150 basis points, and in 2025, interest rates are expected to be cut by 50 basis points.
There are already signs of interest rate cuts in the periphery, and the probability of the periphery is getting bigger and bigger.
It directly affected the 30 minutes of the opening of our A-share market in the morning, and the semiconductor sector was also strong in the first 30 minutes of the morning market**!But it's only 30 minutes before the opening of the market, and then it's back to the prototype!
To sum up, the current A-shares** are weak.
Because there are no more policies to intervene in the market now, it also shows that we want to let the market see the real bottom, rather than a policy rise once and a time, out of a wave of short-term **!
On the contrary, after reaching the real bottom, you can get out of the big bull**!
How long can the main force smash the plate?Xiao Mu has a clear point of view, the main force is almost unable to hold on, and it can be seen from the recent movements of these funds that they are all going to avoid risks, and they can't bear such a **. Secondly, the release of the first net selling is also to release the main institutions to be fully released, so as to accelerate the bottom!
Next, once the panic plate is killed, the meat cutting plate is released, and the bottom of A shares may appear.
Xiao Mu took a trend in the past 20 years as an example, that is, at the bottom stage, a few long black candles continued to come, releasing some energy!
Some people will say that this amount of energy is not as much as the previous time, you know, to the stage of the panic market, it is already very pessimistic, there is not much trading volume, as long as you can kill the last wave of energy, there is a reversal next!
So the current position, we still have to continue to wait!When no one says that this is a triple bottom, and that 2885 points is support, there may be a real bottom!
Xiao Mu's point of view has always been very clear, that is, to break these low-point supports, in order to Phoenix Nirvana!
The GEM refers to the same, they are all in the same market, and the mood will drive the entire market, which is nothing more than who rises more.
So be patient and wait for the real bottom to appear!Don't be in a hurry to go**!
I would have set my heart to the bright moon, but the bright moon shines on the ditch!
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