Soybean is an important food crop to meet the needs of the Chinese people for a better life, and an important strategic material related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Although China is the world's largest soybean consumer, its self-supply capacity is seriously insufficient, and the self-sufficiency rate in 2021 is only 1431%。At this stage, the basic national conditions of more people and less land determine that China's soybean industry cannot achieve self-sufficiency. MarxWasIt was noted that countries or regions could communicate through the world marketMake up for the natural resources that are needed for their own development but do not have.
However, at present, China's soybean import channels are concentrated and single, and there is a high degree of dependence risk. At the intersection of the epidemic of this century and the changes unseen in a century, the superposition of external risks further threatens the stability of China's soybean external chain. ExcellentIt is of great significance to improve the stability, safety and resilience of China's soybean supply chain and enhance the stability, safety and resilience of China's soybean supply chain
The factor endowment conditions of a country or region will change over time. Changes in the quantity and quality of cultivated land endowment in China will affect the effective supply of grain, thus affecting China's food security. Therefore, soybean arable land is a key factor in soybean productionIts fluctuation will directly affect the effective supply of soybeans in China.
There are a wide range of soybean planting areas in mainland China, and in 2020, except for Qinghai Province and **, other provinces and cities have large-scale soybean planting. According to the climatic conditions of local provinces and cities, soybean farming systems, and soybean varieties, China is divided into 5 main soybean producing areas. Among them, the spring soybean sub-region in Northeast China and the soybean sub-region in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin are the main soybean planting areas in China.
From 2009 to 2020, the soybean sowing area in China's main soybean producing areas first decreased and then slowly rebounded. After the financial crisis, except for Sichuan Province, the soybean sown area still maintained a steady upward trend, and the soybean sown area in other provinces has declined significantly. In 2016, the state implemented the structural reform of the agricultural supply side and promoted the policy of "corn to soybean", which made the soybean sowing area in various provinces stop the declineThe soybean planted area has recovered and is gradually rising.
The limitation of cultivated land resources in China and the slow acceleration of yield level make the total soybean yield increase in China small, which poses a potential threat to food security. From 2001 to 2020, the fluctuation of soybean yield in China was similar to the change trend of soybean sowing area and soybean yield level, and showed an upward trend after fluctuating and declining. After the implementation of the first soybean revitalization plan in 2002, China's soybean output reached a peak of 1740 in 2004180,000 tonsHowever, it quickly declined to a peak in 2007.
From 2009 to 2020, China's soybean output showed a "U" shaped structural fluctuation, and in 2015, soybean production fell to the bottom, with an output of only 1178770,000 tons. From 2009 to 2020, China's soybean production totaled 17,60280,000 tons, Heilongjiang Province contributed 40% of the soybean supply. Therefore, Heilongjiang Province is the main soybean producing area in ChinaTo a large extent, the change in soybean production directly determines the domestic soybean self-sufficiency.
With the abundant arable land endowment and breeding technology level, the soybean industry in Brazil, the United States and Argentina has formed a comparative advantage over China in the world market. In 1998, Argentina became the world's third soybean producer, and China's soybean output has been ranked fourth in the world. The transfer effect of the Sino-US friction has caused China to transfer some of the US bean orders to Brazil and ArgentinaPrompting Brazil and Argentina to further increase soybean production.
In 2019, Brazil overtook the United States to become the world's number one soybean producer. Compared with the United States, Brazil and Argentina, China's soybean production is significantly low, and the development rate is slow. U.S. soybean production in 2020 9670,000 tons, which is 493 times. From 2001 to 2020, Brazil and Argentina saw production growth of up to 20157% and 8153%，The growth rate of soybean production in China is only 2725%
The United States, Brazil and Argentina are the most important traditional soybean countries in China. In 2021, China imported 10,000 tons of soybeans from Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, accounting for 97% of China's total soybean imports57%。In 1995, Brazil and Argentina began exporting soybeans to our country. Before 2013, except for a few years, the United States was the most important soybean country in China, starting from 2013Brazil has officially surpassed the United States to become China's largest soybean partner.
From the perspective of soybean imports, from 1995 to 2021, the soybean imports of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina accounted for a slight decline after a rapid increase in China's total soybean imports. From 1995 to 2001, the proportion of total soybean imports of the three countries showed a rapid upward trend, and in 2001, after China joined the world ** organization, China 997% of soybean imports** are imported from these three countries, and the total import share of the three countries reached a peak of 99 in 2003After 94%, it began to fall slowly. From 2012 to 2018, the proportion of imports of the three countries fluctuated at a high level of 95%.It briefly dropped to 94 in 201911% and then quickly rebounded to 97%.
There is a risk of highly concentrated and single dependence in China's soybean ** chain. It can be said that the soybean supply capacity of Brazil, the United States and Argentina directly determines the safety of China's soybean industry. At this stage and even in the future, there will still be conflicts in the political, economic and trade fields, and once foreign countries pick up the "food diplomacy", it will directly threaten the security of China's soybean supply. At the same time, climate change is leading to higher temperatures, which will affect crop production in important agricultural regions of the world.
The soybean supply in Brazil and Argentina will be affected by extreme weather and environmental protection pressures. The La Niña phenomenon in South America in 2022 will significantly reduce the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina in South America, which will inevitably affect the stability of China's soybean ** chain and threaten China's food security. Therefore, it is urgent to optimize the layout of soybeans in China.
In addition, in recent years, China has actively developed soybean countries in Asia and Africa. In 2017, China imported 6,924 tons of soybeans to its Asian neighbor Kazakhstan for the first time, and in 2018, the import volume reached 17,223 tons, but in 2019, it was affected by the new crown epidemic and domestic political conflictsKazakhstan's soybean supply to China has been declining year by year
In 2021 there were only 135 tons. In 2016, China imported 209 tons of soybeans to the African country Ethiopia for the first time, and 29,928 tons in 2021, an increase of 142 in five years45 times. In 2020, China imported 7,811 tons of Benin soybeans, and in 2021, 150218 tons of imported soybeans increased by 1823 times,Benin surpassed Ukraine in 2021 to become China's seventh largest soybean country.
In 2021, China imported 801 tons of soybeans to the African country Tanzania for the first time, and Tanzania also surpassed Kazakhstan to become the tenth largest soybean country in China. Compared with the traditional countries, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, the emerging soybean countries have a relatively small scale of exchanges with China's soybeans, but the potential of soybeans that can be tapped is huge. In addition to Canada, other emerging countries have joined our country at different timesGo outInitiative.
In the long run, with the successful rollout of China's initiative to go global, China's international exchanges with emerging soybean countries are becoming closer and closer, and China can tap the soybean supply capacity of emerging soybean countries by investing in infrastructure construction and improving soybean production technologyOptimize China's soybean import structure and channels, so as to ensure China's food security.
In 2018, the United States' soybean exports to China plummeted by nearly 50%, and the occurrence of the "Meng Wanzhou incident" at the end of the same year also caused Canada's soybean supply to China to plummet by 975 in the second year75%。In 2018, Brazil's soybean exports to China increased by 151.54 million tons, even though the impact of extreme dry weather led to a significant reduction in soybean production in Argentina and Brazil.
In 2019, Argentina's soybean supply to our country increased by 500% after the resumption of soybean production. * The war has made the relationship between the two countries more and more tense, although the international exchanges are warm, but the political, economic and trade, science and technology conflicts are frequent, thus inhibiting the export of American soybeans to China. Most of the gap left by the U.S. and Canadian soybeans was filled by Brazil and Argentina. Therefore, when the international relations between China and soybean countries develop towards a vicious development, it will have a destructive effect and a transfer effect.
As a food crop endowed with political and strategic significance, on the one hand, China has diversified its soybean channels by improving the level of soybeans in emerging soybean countries, and on the other hand, it can also use China's huge soybean market to improve economic and trade cooperation between the two sides, so as to build bilateral friendly relations. The initiative of going out is a form of international exchange that contains the concept of "community with a shared future for mankind" in ChinaIt plays an important role in reconstructing the global soybean chain, reducing external instability and ensuring China's food security.
The endowment of natural resources determines a country's grain production, and the imbalance in the distribution of resources and demand determines that China will inevitably use international resources to bridge the gap between domestic food supply and demand. Through the description and analysis of the current situation of soybean supply in China, it can be seen that at this stage, only by adhering to the principles of "moderate import" and "self-oriented" of the concept of food security in the new era, and continuously optimizing the structure of China's soybean imports, can the pressure on domestic resources and environment be alleviated, and the consumption demand of the domestic market can be effectively metIt can also make the "rice bowl" of food security more flat.
According to the analysis of the current situation of soybean supply in China, limited by China's limited natural resource endowment and the "hard demand" of the domestic soybean industry, it is necessary to use the resources of the world market to adjust the contradiction of domestic structural shortage. Through diversification and expansion of soybean import channels, we will optimize the layout and enhance the stability and safety of China's soybean chainIt is an important way to ensure the security of soybean supply and food security in China.
China can make use of its own infrastructure advantages to invest in infrastructure and logistics and warehousing construction in countries along the route, which not only reduces the cost of soybean imports and releases the potential of soybeans in countries along the route, but also provides real benefits and development opportunities for countries along the route, so as to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. However, at the same time, the situation in countries along the route is complex and changeable, and China should pay close attention to the national risks of the first country, and ensure the security of China's soybean supply and food security while promoting international exchanges.
Only by adhering to the security strategy of "moderate imports and diversified imports" can we give full play to the important role of the world market in ensuring the security of China's high-quality grain supply. February** Dynamic Incentive Program