If you want to know more exciting content, come and pay attention to my steel polysilicon ** stable operation this week. At present, polysilicon manufacturers have scheduled production orders, with most manufacturers placing orders until the end of February, and some of them already scheduled for March. With the approach of the Spring Festival and the end of the signing, the market has basically entered a state of closure. However, wafer manufacturers continue to produce as usual during the holiday season, and the demand for polysilicon is rigid. However, there are many downstream cell and module production reductions, and the upstream inventory has a high-risk situation after the holiday.
Silicon wafers maintain stable operation. The Spring Festival is approaching, and the stocking of downstream battery factories is basically completed, and the current order performance is average, and the market investment atmosphere has dissipated. The output of n-type silicon wafers continues to increase, but the downstream demand has not yet started, and the supply and demand mismatch is under pressure. Last week, wafers continued to brew an upward adjustment, but the downstream demand was insufficient, and the resistance was obvious, such as internode wafers could not adjust their own output, and it is expected that the pressure after the holiday will be greater.
Cells** are running steadily. The cell market is expected to remain stable, and the expectations of cell makers to reduce production this week are basically clear. At present, there is less production of high-efficiency p-type cells in the market, and there is some support for p-type cells, but the downstream demand is limited. Type 182 and 210 are currently basically flat**. The proportion of n-type cell output increased, but the profitability was poor due to the lack of downstream demand.
The module market remained stable. At present, most industry players have entered a state of vacation or waiting for vacation, the actual market transaction is small, the construction of domestic terminal power stations is basically suspended, the demand for modules has contracted significantly in February, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers continues. During the Spring Festival, all enterprises have reduced production to varying degrees, and the holiday cycle has also been extended. It is expected that the pre-holiday components will be difficult to improve.
This week's photovoltaic industry chain ** trend:
This week's average price change at a glance:
part.1 Market analysis of the photovoltaic industry chain
1.1 Polysilicon analysis
This week, the polysilicon market is running smoothly, and the market signing is over. Polysilicon compound feeding 616 yuan kg, the same as last week; Polysilicon densifier 581 yuan kg, the same as last week; Polysilicon cauliflower 528 yuan kg, the same as last week. N-type material was 72 yuan kg, which was the same as last week.
With the Chinese New Year approaching, the polysilicon market is basically closed this week, and manufacturers are scheduled to produce orders. In the past two weeks, downstream wafer factories have been highly motivated to purchase n-type materials due to the demand for stocking. The average price of n-type Siemens polysilicon rose to above 70 yuan, and the average price of n-type granular silicon also rose to 62 yuan. As the year approaches, the downstream wafer pulling end is highly motivated to stock up, and the demand for polysilicon is relatively rigid. During the Spring Festival, downstream wafer factories did not significantly reduce production, which provided good support for polysilicon. However, as downstream cell and module factories have successively reduced production and suspended production, the risk of wafer inventory accumulation has intensified. It is not excluded that the manufacturer will revise and schedule production in the later stage.
From the perspective of the first end, the current polysilicon output is temporarily stable, and the domestic polysilicon output in January was 16880,000 tons, 163%。At present, the enterprises that can provide n-type materials in the market are still dominated by leading enterprises; In the short term, the supply and demand relationship of n-type materials is still tight. Now dense material compound feeding is also mostly used as an N-type pull rod, which has a certain support for the first grade.
Polysilicon market** (yuan kg).
1.2 Wafer** analysis
Wafers** continued to run steadily this week. The average price of P-type M10 wafers is 202 yuan tablets, the same as last week; The average price of mono-Si G12 wafers this week was 298 yuan tablets, the same as last week; The average price of N-type M10 is 212 yuan tablets, the same as last week; The average price of N-type G12 is 32 yuan, the same as last week.
As the Chinese New Year approached this week, the wafer market remained virtually unchanged. In the early stage, the price of polysilicon also drove the upward adjustment of silicon wafers. The market transaction price re-stood at 2 yuan. However, with the sharp reduction of production by downstream cell and module companies, the demand for silicon wafers has weakened, and the momentum continues to be insufficient. In terms of n-type wafers, due to the continuous increase in the output ratio at this stage, but the total demand has not yet been fully expanded, the overall output of n-type silicon wafers is obviously in surplus, the consumption rate cannot keep up with the output at all, and the overall inventory level is accelerating.
From the supply side, the domestic wafer output in January was 575GW, down 369%。During the Spring Festival, wafer manufacturers did not significantly reduce production; However, in order to stabilize the overall supply and demand relationship between n-type, cell makers revised down production schedules during the inter-session, and the demand for wafers contracted in February, and the wafer inventory problem may become prominent after the holiday, and the current wafer inventory is still dominated by n-type.
Silicon wafersMarket** (RMBtablets
1.3 Cell analysis
This week, the cell ** generally maintained stable operation, and the upstream link failed to transmit to the cell link, and the average price of p-type M10 this week was 038 yuan watts, unchanged from last week. The average price of P-type G12 this week is 039 yuan watts, the same as last week, and the average price of M10 monocrystalline TOPCon cells this week was 046 yuan, unchanged from last week.
This week, the cell segment basically entered a holiday state, and there was no change in all models and sizes**. Although the upstream polysilicon and wafers were slightly better in the early stage, the cell was still stable. In January, the overall cell production was suspended, and the total domestic production in January was 54GW, a significant decrease of 1148%。At present, the output of high-efficiency p-type cells in the market is still small, and there is still some support for the market. n-type cells** are under pressure, and the price difference of each efficiency is also obvious. Although some manufacturers are willing to explore, the downstream demand has not been able to increase for a long time, and the trend of n-type batteries is weak.
With the Chinese New Year approaching, domestic cell demand was weak this week. In order to stabilize the overall supply-demand relationship between n-type cells, most cell makers have reduced or suspended production during the Spring Festival, and it is expected that cell output will decrease significantly in February. In addition, downstream module manufacturers have also reduced production production in order to reduce their own inventories, and they are also relatively resistant to cell production, and the actual trend depends on the release of demand after the holiday.
CellsMarket** (RMBtile
1.4 PV module analysis
With the Chinese New Year approaching, market orders have basically stagnated, and the module market has not fluctuated significantly. The average price of 182 mono and monofacial PERC modules is 091 yuan w, the same as last week. The average price of 210 monofacial mono PERC modules is 093 yuan w, the same as last week. The average price of 182 monocrystalline bifacial PERC modules is 092 yuan, unchanged from last week, and the average price of 210 monocrystalline bifacial PERC modules was 094 yuan w, the same as last week.
In the last week before the Spring Festival, the construction of power plants in China has basically been suspended, and the module market has basically entered a state of stagnation. During the Spring Festival, most module makers reduced production and extended holiday hours. The new orders signed by various module companies are relatively cold. Although there are both upstream polysilicon and wafers, the price increase has not been transmitted to the module side, and the module ** remains sluggish.
The module market is currently in the off-season, but due to the weaker off-season, there are fewer new orders from module manufacturers, and the demand visibility in March is not high, so manufacturers can only reduce production schedules and output, and the total domestic module output in January was 41.8GW, a decrease of 1106%, which is still expected to be significantly reduced in February. However, judging from the current market sentiment and bidding, the pressure on modules after the holiday is still large, and this year's clearance will continue.
Photovoltaic modulesMarket** (RMBtile
part.2 Photovoltaic auxiliary materials**
2.1 Weekly comparison of photovoltaic auxiliary materials**
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