Trump s election is a high probability event, and China may face challenges in many aspects

Mondo International Updated on 2024-02-10

According to the global network, the former Trump of the United States is expected to represent the Republican Party in 2024 in the United States *** attempt to return to the White House, and he has repeatedly expressed his views on major issues at home and abroad in recent days. Mr. Trump also mentioned that Taiwan had taken away the U.S. semiconductor business and refused to say whether to defend the island. China Times News Network noticed that this incident triggered a heated discussion among netizens on the island's Internet forum "Criticizing and Kicking Industrial Workshop", and many people were worried that if Trump was really elected, it would hit Taiwan's semiconductor industry hard. The U.S. "Newsweek" said on the 21st that Trump recently said in an interview, "Taiwan has indeed taken away all of our chip business." ”

According to reference sources, Trump has repeatedly boasted that if he returns to power, he can end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in one day. And EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell urged Trump to share his "magic plan" for achieving peace in Ukraine, Borrell said: "We haven't been able to come up with a magic solution to the problem within 24 hours, but I heard that Zelensky** has invited Trump to Kyiv to find a solution quickly." Borrell added: "Of course, the people who want peace the most, the most want to end the war, are of course the Ukrainians, and I am sure they will be very happy if Trump can offer them a magic plan to end the war in 24 hours." ”

Now that Ukraine is still losing step by step, Russia is empty but still maintains the demeanor of a great power, European countries are about to be dragged down, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is still unresolved, and Trump is standing up for strong competition, Biden must be anxious, and regardless of the external environment has been extremely poor, he can't resist Trump's usual crazy state. Therefore, Biden knows very well in his heart that Trump is coming back for revenge, and his revenge is not for the American people, but to save the face he lost during the Biden period.

After winning the Iowa Republican primary, Trump defeated Nikki Haley, the former U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations, in the New Hampshire primary. Trump became the first Republican candidate in nearly 50 years to win both New Hampshire and Iowa. Trump's easy two-game winning streak in the party's primary shows that Republican voters are more inclined to Trump's "Make America Great Again" statement, and the Republican Party is still the "Trump Party." Many believe that Trump's election as the Republican nominee is almost a foregone conclusion. This means that the two oldest presidents in American history, Biden and Trump, will once again face each other directly.

Now, according to "Russia Today" (RT), Russia's *** Minister Sergei Lavrov said on the same day that Trump's so-called promise of "a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict" is almost unrealistic. He added that Ukraine does not seem ready to accept any kind of solution. Lavrov also noted that Zelensky was already "quite rude" in response to Trump's claims. The Ukrainian leader called Trump's ideas "very dangerous" and said he was concerned that Trump was trying to "make his own decisions" without Russia or Ukraine. RT noted that Moscow has said that it has not yet contacted Trump about reaching a peace agreement with Kiev.

Now Trump has won two states in a row, and in the Republican Party, he is unstoppable. And Biden is also very suspenseful about Trump. Various polls show that Biden is 3-10 percentage points behind Trump. Trump said, "I can easily stop World War III, easily." Even before I returned to the White House, I was able to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in a day. Trump revealed that he has a good relationship with Putin and Zelensky. Trump added, "Tariffs give us tremendous power, especially when some countries don't do as we want, including in wartime." I think when products from other countries come into the U.S., they should automatically pay a 10% tax. ”

Now Trump has signaled that he will give up the use of force to protect the Taiwan authorities, telling the outside world that he may abandon the Taiwan authorities. Trump is obviously not friendly to China, but Trump is an absolute refined egoist who will not trade at a loss. On the Taiwan issue, Trump knows very well that if the United States protects the Taiwan authorities by force, it will undoubtedly lose for the United States. Trump publicly revealed signals that the United States should not come forward to protect Taiwan if China recovers it by force, because Taiwan "steals our business." Trump's meaning is very clear, that is, the United States should not protect the Taiwan authorities by force, because this is a loss-making deal for the United States.

As soon as this remark came out, it immediately aroused widespread concern on the island. Because the realistic background of the island's worries is very obvious, that is, Trump is expected to represent the Republican Party in this year's United States*** attempt to return to the White House. Recently, in order to improve his chances of winning the primary battle within the Republican Party, Trump has repeatedly expressed his views on major issues at home and abroad, and has agitated for propaganda. It is worth mentioning that Trump reiterated the topic of "taking away" the business of the American chip industry by companies on the island, and refused to express his position on whether to "defend Taiwan". Some people on the island are worried that if Trump is really elected, it will hit the island's chip industry hard.

A few years ago, the US policy toward Taiwan was indeed yin and yang, which made people very uncomfortable. Since Biden took office, he has constantly hyped up his "commitment to defend Taiwan", repeatedly claimed that "the United States wants to help defend Taiwan", and has also continued to engage in "military aid" to Taiwan. In May 2022, Biden, who was visiting Japan, hinted that the United States was willing to use force to "defend Taiwan" if Taiwan was attacked. In August 2023, Biden** approved an $80 million "military financing" for Taiwan under the "Foreign Military Financing" project, claiming to "strengthen Taiwan's self-defense capabilities." Biden is so bold and openly provokes China's bottom line, which is really reprehensible.

Not long ago, Trump publicly expressed his close relationship with Russia's Putin and said that he would try to stop the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which was unacceptable to Biden. For Japan**, Trump's"America first"This means that Japan's security may be threatened, and that Trump will pursue policies that are beneficial to the United States at the expense of his allies, as evidenced by his frequent withdrawal from international organizations and agreements during the Trump administration. Therefore, Japan had to send dignitaries to meet with Trump, hoping that Trump would give more consideration to Japan's security issues.

If Trump wins in 2024, he will have important implications for the United States and the world. Trump's policy orientation and leadership style are likely to have important implications for U.S. domestic and foreign policy. Over the past term, Trump has pursued intense protectionist policies, including raising tariffs and renegotiating agreements. If he is re-elected, he is likely to continue these policies, which could have an impact on the global landscape. At the same time, Trump's inadmissibility and aggressive policy propositions could bring volatility to financial markets.

Since Trump has always pursued an "America First" strategy, once Trump can take office again, the United States will inevitably reduce its support and assistance to other allied countries, which will make the anti-China encirclement built by the United States a loophole. If Trump succeeds in winning the United States in 2024, China will have a very different international situation in 2025. Now China must start planning ahead of time for Trump's various strategies, which can allow us to avoid some risks and gain some benefits.

February** Dynamic Incentive Program

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