【Author's Profile】Songuo comes from a private equity champion team, with a cumulative scale of 10 figures. With 13 years of investment experience, he is good at ** and restructuring, and is now the manager of Sunshine Private Equity.
A-share investors are particularly envious of U.S. stocks, there are often bull markets, and now we may have to envy Japan and India next door, just on Wednesday, Japan** is a new high, and now there are very few reports, almost invisible, what reason is not to say that everyone knows, for fear of affecting everyone's homework at night, A-shares are still difficult!
Let's talk about three topics, the first topic, Japan's ** new high, the second, will it accelerate the decline in the near future, and the market rumors will have a great negative impact on the large-scale knocking of snowballs? The third is that we discuss when a certain team will shoot
Let's talk about the first one, Japan's ** record high, which is a new high in 91 years
The main reason is that they have come out of the era of low desire, and the economy has begun to circulate positive feedback, so everything is done. Then our big China, my fate is up to me, the national fortune did not say that it is over, we can't give up now, we have a large volume, **will also follow the expected improvement of fundamentals, out of this stage**, and even go better, but now, we can only say not to give up!
The second is that some snowball products may be knocked in on a large scale in the near future, triggering a series of sell-offs in A-shares
The argument is actually very marketable, everyone likes to hear it, and the view is that the CSI 1,000 CSI 500 linked to this snowball product is as high as more than 200 billion, of course, the specific scale is not known, and the regulator has this data in hand. Some analysts estimate that every **100 points will bring concentrated selling pressure of about 10 billion funds, so they are worried about bringing selling pressure.
This analysis seems to be very reasonable, but it ignores one of the most basic principles, that is, the snowball product is used as a derivative, it is more of a hedging tool, and the general brokerage will give the product a hedging combination.
Therefore, as long as the scale of this total snowball product is not reduced or stopped on a large scale, there will be no large-scale selling pressure on such products, and more will be renewed with the new.
Then the third question, when does a certain team make a move?
At present, there are two forward-looking indices worth our focus on, one is **heavy stocks, the second is the CSI 1,000 index, at noon on Wednesday **we said, **heavy stock index, every time the bottom accelerates down, is**liquidation, extremely weak**, the fastest stage of selling pressure release, bringing **possible** time point, as shown in the figure below, then now see**heavy stocks are stopped, but there is not**, we need a long white line.
The same goes for the CSI 1,000, because the scale of the CSI 1,000-linked snowball product is still relatively large, and it is possible to be the first to approach this knock-in range, so if this index can **, it also means that a certain team has made a move.
To sum up, it is very difficult for us to be good on the outside, but these concerns about the snowball knocking in the market are essentially logically flawed, and when the regulator will focus on the heavy stocks and the CSI 1,000 index, these two indexes, staring at when they can take the lead.