Cialis is still losing money, but its imagination is greater

Text|Zinc scale Chen Dengxin.

Edit|Meng Huiyuan.

A few days ago, Cialis released a performance forecast, which is expected to achieve operating income of 35.5 billion yuan and 36.5 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 409%~7.02%；The net profit loss was 2.1 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease.

This means that Cialis has been losing money for four consecutive years.

The strange thing is that the capital market doesn't care too much about this, and Cialis still maintains a market value of about 100 billion yuan, what is the reason?

In a word, although the days of Cialis are hard, there is hope.

The performance is to the left, and the sales are painful and happy to the right, which is the true portrayal of Cialis.

The median operating income forecast for 2023 is 36 billion yuan, and the median net profit forecast is -2.4 billion yuan, showing a trend of "increasing revenue but not increasing profits".

The fundamentals are not ideal, and the capital market has long expected it.

In fact, the operating income and net profit of Cialis have long gone their separate ways: from 2020 to 2023, the operating income will be 14.3 billion yuan and 16.7 billion yuan respectively200 million yuan, 34.1 billion yuan, 36 billion yuan, net profit was -172.9 billion yuan, 182.4 billion yuan, -383.2 billion yuan, -2.4 billion yuan.

Correspondingly, the market capitalization has been rising.

In April 2020, the lowest share price of Cialis was 762 yuan, and the highest price rose to 83 in June 202183 yuan, becoming a famous "ten baggers" in the capital market, has since been adjusted, and will hit 99 in 2023A record high of 97 yuan, and the market value once exceeded 140 billion yuan.

It can be seen that the capital market does not focus on the performance of Cialis, but pays more attention to the sales volume of Cialis.

According to public data, in December 2023, the sales volume of Sailis cars will be 31,490 units, a year-on-year increase of 21003%, monthly sales exceeded 30,000 units for the first time, and the cumulative sales volume in 2023 will be 106703 units, a year-on-year increase of 3331%；Most of them are the subject of cooperation with Huawei.

M7 sales chart.

With the help of Wenjie, Cialis has become the head player of the new car-making force.

A private equity source told Zinc Scale: "Net profit is a key indicator to measure the fundamentals of a company, and it is also one of the important bases for investment, no institution will not value it, but this situation is more special, although it is in the rhythm of 'selling more and losing more', but once it succeeds in seizing market share, profitability is a matter of time, Tesla has also experienced this stage, it is not surprising, so the market is more concerned about the prospects of the new M7 and M9." ”

In layman's terms, performance represents the past, but the past cannot represent the future.

In this regard, the Pacific ** said: "The third plant will be completed in the second half of 2023 according to the planned project, and the total annual production capacity is expected to reach 700,000 units after completion. ”

Profits turned positive, and the dawn appeared In fact, Cialis sales are rising, but the losses are still there, and there are three reasons behind it.

First of all, it is still in the investment period.

Although Cialis was the first batch of players in the pure electric track, it has been tepid until it joined hands with Huawei to change its fate, and it continued to increase investment after becoming serious.

The R&D investment in the core technology and products of high-end intelligent electric vehicles is high, resulting in an increase in R&D expenses and labor costs, which affects the current performance. Cialis officials said.

As of the end of 2022, the cumulative investment in core R&D exceeded 12 billion yuan, and although Huawei has taken the lead, Cialis has also made a contribution, with R&D investment in 2020 and 2022 being 83.7 billion yuan, 94.8 billion yuan, 131.4 billion yuan, showing a trend of increasing gradually.

In addition, in order to solve the problem of production capacity, it is necessary to lay out and build factories in advance, and take advantage of the integration of AI vision, big data and other technologies to build an automotive smart factory.

It is not difficult to see that high operating costs are inevitable during the investment period, and this trend is difficult to change in a short period of time.

Secondly, the time for the explosion to be increased is behind.

On September 12, 2023, the new M7 was officially launched, with intelligent driving, high cost performance and high traffic out of the circle, with a total of 100,000 units in 60 days of listing, of which the intelligent driving version accounted for 60%, and the urban intelligent driving package selection rate was 75%.

The problem is that it takes time to get from finalization to delivery.

As a result, the time window left for Cialis to cash in on the "dividends" of Huawei's smart cars in 2023 is not long, and the boost to the overall performance is limited.

Even so, the new M7 also showed its strength in the performance forecast.

In the first three quarters of 2023, the operating income of Cialis was 1668 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2786%, based on this estimate, the operating income for the fourth quarter was 188200 million yuan 198200 million yuan, the single-quarter operating income exceeded the total operating income of the first three quarters, and the growth rate changed from a year-on-year decrease to a year-on-year increase in one fell swoop.

In addition to operating income, net profit is also reflected.

In the first three quarters of 2023, the net profit of Cialis was -229.4 billion yuan, based on which the net profit for the fourth quarter is -40.6 billion 19.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6492% to 11677%。

This means that Cialis sees the "dawn" of positive profits.

Institutions' earnings expectations for Cialis turned positive.

Again, lithium carbonate** conduction is not a one-step process.

According to the data of the business community, on January 1, 2023, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 5250,000 tons, and the average price was 10 on December 3130,000 tons, down 8038%。

Lithium carbonate** avalanche, visible to the naked eye.

However, this wave of decline is not a one-step decline, but a quarter by quarter decline, it is necessary to know that lithium carbonate *** reflects the price of the end product has a conduction cycle of 1 month to 2 months.

As a result, the cost of raw materials of Cialis is high and low, especially in the first half of the year, the cost of raw materials is high, which has a great impact on its performance.

In this regard, "Mokeguan Lithium" said: "The lowest point of this round of lithium carbonate ** cycle may be 50,000 tons and 60,000 tons, which will appear at some point in 2025." At that point, ** will penetrate the cost line of most miners, leading to a reversal of the overall supply and demand pattern, thus starting the next cycle. ”

In other words, the pressure on the cost of raw materials for Cialis in 2024 may be smaller.

In fact, the new M7 will continue to make efforts after entering 2024.

According to the "Sales Volume of New Power Brands in the Chinese Market from January 1 to 21, 2024", the cumulative sales volume of Wenjie in the first three weeks was 2010,000 units, in one fell swoop to become the "leading brother" of the new car-making forces.

It should be noted that the target for 2024 is 600,000 units, which is expected to increase by more than 500% year-on-year.

Soochow** said: "Sailis is the first cooperative car company under Huawei's intelligent selection model, and has worked closely with Huawei, and since 2023, the two parties have established a joint working group to complete the closed-loop management of sales and delivery; The M5 M7 has been replaced, and Huawei's latest intelligent driving technology has been applied, and the delivery performance of the M7 continues to exceed expectations. ”

More importantly, the scale delivery of the M9 is imminent.

Xiang Ligang, a well-known communication expert, said: "The M9 is ahead of a generation, or even more than a generation, in terms of intelligent lighting, Turing chassis, intelligent driving, hard-core safety, changeable space, intelligent space, and natural space. ”

As a result, the capital market has greater expectations.

At present, new energy vehicles are still an incremental market, and players are far from the point of life and death, and eating the territory of fuel vehicles is the top priority, especially the M9, Ideal L9, Xiaopeng G9, Weilai ET9, Denza D9, etc. will join hands to attack the core fortress of BBA.

CITIC** said: "The flagship model Wenjie M9 was launched, focusing on intelligence and luxury, with a total of more than 30,000 units in 7 days on the market, and we expect to sell about 10,000 units per month in a steady state." ”

From this point of view, Cialis has greater profitability elasticity.

In his New Year's speech, Ken Hu, Huawei's Rotating Chairman, said, "In 2024, Huawei's business units will focus on value creation and focus on more food. Among them, intelligent vehicle solutions need to work together with partners to turn technological advantages into commercial success. ”

In other words, the performance of Cialis in 2024 is worth looking forward to.

All in all, although Cialis will continue to lose money in 2023, there are signs of improvement, and with the upward trend of the Wenjie brand and the growth of the market, the capital market has greater imagination, which is the key to maintaining its market value of 100 billion yuan.

Then, Cialis has to work harder.