Text|Fuji Research Institute Ruonan Xiongsheng.Typography | cathy
Executive Producer | yoda
In 2024, the sales of pre-made dishes for the Spring Festival will be popular, and pre-made dishes will still be the highlight of consumers' "Chinese New Year's Eve Meal". Major fresh food platforms, e-commerce, supermarkets, and catering stores have all started selling prefabricated dishes for the Spring Festival.
Two "players" in the prefabricated food track: "the first share of prefabricated dishes" Weizhixiang (605089SH), "the first share of the catering chain" Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215.)SZ) has previously announced its third quarter report for 2023, and its performance has been differentiated.
Fuji Research According to its third quarterly report, it was found that in the first three quarters of 2023, the revenue growth rates of Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen were respectively. 88%；The growth rate of its net profit was as follows: 29%。At present, the growth rate of revenue and net profit of Qianwei Central Kitchen is overwhelming, and in the view of Fuji Research, the main reason for the negative growth of Weizhixiang's net profit may be the increase in logistics costs caused by the high cost of raw materials and the performance cost of e-commerce business, which will affect Weizhixiang's net profit.
Weizhixiang is a semi-finished food supplier, mainly engaged in the production, research and development and sales of semi-finished dishes; Qianwei Central Kitchen is a professional catering quick-frozen noodle and rice products business, providing customized and standardized prefabricated semi-finished products for catering enterprises.
As of January 26**, Weizhixiang closed at 3157 yuan shares, corresponding to a market value of 43$5.7 billion; Qianwei Central Kitchen reported 4300 yuan shares, corresponding to a market value of 427.4 billion yuan.
Fuji Research According to the third quarterly report of the two, it was found that in the third quarter of 2023, the revenue of Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen was 61.9 billion and 13$2.8 billion; The revenue growth rate was as follows. 88%。
In the same period, the net profit of Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen was 10.7 billion and 9427050,000 yuan; The growth rate of net profit was as follows. 29%。
From the layout point of view, Weizhixiang is mainly based on the C-end, supplemented by the B-end; Qianwei Central Kitchen focuses on the B-end. As the dividends of franchise stores gradually faded, Weizhixiang's net profit showed negative growth. In the third quarter of 2023, the number of new franchise stores opened and the number of closed stores was 66.
Judging from the performance growth rate in the third quarter of 2023, Qianwei Central Kitchen has achieved both revenue and net profit; The revenue of Weizhixiang increased year-on-year, and the net profit declined year-on-year.
In an old article in July last year ("Wei Zhixiang VS Qianwei Central Kitchen First Quarterly Report PK, Who is the new king in the second half of prefabricated dishes?") We focus on the two major players in the prefabricated food track, whose positioning is slightly different, and their performance is also differentiated.
Today, the two prefabricated food companies are not only facing problems such as performance differentiation, but also facing the risk that food safety and the catering industry will not recover as expected.
With the imminent introduction of the national standard policy for prefabricated dishes, the prefabricated food track will experience a new round of reshuffle. Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen, who is the "new favorite" of prefabricated dishes? As a result, Fuji Research has updated some of the data and charts from the previous article in July, as follows:
In 2023, prefabricated dishes will frequently rush to the hot search, whether it is the rumors of "prefabricated dishes occupying shopping malls" or "prefabricated dishes entering the campus", which puts them on the cusp of the first place.
According to iiMedia Consulting's "2023-2025 Analysis Report on the Operation and Investment Decisions of China's Prefabricated Food Industry", the scale of China's prefabricated food market will reach 543.4 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 213%, and it is expected to exceed 1,072 billion yuan by 2026.
The prefabricated vegetable market, which has a wide industry space and a lack of head brands, has attracted a lot of capital to enter the market. In 2021, upstream and downstream enterprises of prefabricated dishes such as Zhenwei Xiaomeiyuan, Sandian Youliu, Xunwei Lion, and Wangjiahuan will receive financing before and after.
The first share of prefabricated dishes, "Wei Zhixiang", and the "first share of the catering chain", Qianwei Central Kitchen, have successively landed on the A** field in 2021.
When the competition in the prefabricated food track continues to intensify, as the two major players in the prefabricated food track, Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen have previously announced their third quarter reports for 2023, and their performance in the capital market is different.
Fuji Research found that in terms of performance, in the first three quarters of 2023, Weizhixiang's revenue growth slowed down, while Qianwei Central Kitchen's revenue growth accelerated, and the net profit growth rate also diverged; From the perspective of layout, Weizhixiang is mainly based on the C-end and supplemented by the B-end, while Qianwei Central Kitchen focuses on the B-end; From the perspective of products, Weizhixiang mainly focuses on meat, poultry and aquatic products, while Qianwei Central Kitchen specializes in quick-frozen rice and flour products.
Two companies with completely different layouts and products, with the reintroduction of national policies, the prefabricated food industry is about to usher in a new round of development and reshuffle, in the second half of the prefabricated food track with trillions of potential market competitors, who can have the last laugh?
In the post-epidemic era in 2023, the revenue growth of Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen will accelerate.
According to the three quarterly reports of the two, Weizhixiang's revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was 61.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 192%；In the same period, Qianwei Central Kitchen's revenue was 132.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2888%。
And in 2022, when the epidemic is raging, Weizhixiang will achieve a revenue of 79.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 440%, Qianwei Central Kitchen achieved revenue of 148.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1686%。
In the first three quarters of 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of Weizhixiang's revenue decreased by 248 percentage points, and Qianwei Central Kitchen decreased by 12 compared with the whole year of 202202 percentage points.
The revenue growth rate of both will accelerate in 2023, but the net profit growth rate will diverge.
According to the financial report, in 2022, Weizhixiang will achieve a net profit of 14.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 795%, Qianwei Central Kitchen achieved a net profit of 12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1520%。
In the first three quarters of 2023, Weizhixiang achieved a net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 290%, a negative growth rate compared with the net profit growth rate in 2022; Qianwei Central Kitchen achieved a net profit of 9724 in the same period500,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3529%, an increase of 20% compared with the net profit growth rate for the full year of 202209 percentage points.
The differentiation of net profit is inseparable from the changes in the gross profit margin of Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen. According to the financial report, in the first three quarters of 2020-2023, the gross profit margin of Weizhixiang were: 16%；During the same period, the gross profit margin of Qianwei Central Kitchen was: 94%。
Obviously, from 2020 to 2023, Weizhixiang's gross profit margin will decline in 2021, mainly due to the increase in logistics expenses caused by the high cost of raw materials** and the performance cost of e-commerce business in 2021-2022, and the increase in operating costs, which will return to normal levels in 2023, so the gross profit margin will fall back from 2023, which will directly lead to the differentiation of net profit growth and revenue growth.
At the same time, the gross profit margin of Qianwei Central Kitchen is lower than that of Weizhixiang as a whole, but it shows a trend of increasing year by year. Although it has fallen slightly in the first three quarters of 2023, on the whole, the gap between Qianwei Central Kitchen and Weizhixiang in terms of gross profit margin is gradually narrowing.
In the view of Fuji Research, Qianwei Central Kitchen and Weizhixiang will both accelerate their revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 under the condition that the industry has benefited**, and the net profit has been differentiated to a certain extent, but it should still not be on the rise. Which of the two will stand out in the prepared vegetable market? It depends on the channel layout and products of both parties.
According to the China Business Industry Research Institute, the current proportion of B-end and C-end demand in the prefabricated food industry is 8:2, according to the China Chain Catering Report**, the C-end market for ordinary consumers is expected to occupy nearly 30% of the market share of prefabricated food in 2025, and the penetration rate of prefabricated food is expected to increase to 15%-20% by 2030.
Source: freepik
Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen have chosen different directions in terms of layout, with Weizhixiang mainly focusing on the C-end and supplemented by the B-end; Qianwei Central Kitchen focuses on the B-end.
Weizhixiang has been deeply involved in the prefabricated food industry for 14 years, and has created two core brands, "Weizhixiang" and "Yuyu".
Among them, "Wei Zhixiang" focuses on the C-end market through retail channels (distributors and franchise stores) and direct sales models, franchise stores are the main mode for Wei Zhixiang to expand the C-end market, and "Yuyu" radiates the B-end market through wholesale channels, mainly serving hotels, restaurants, canteens and other customers.
At present, the demand for pre-made dishes to reach consumers through offline stores has gradually decreased. According to Weizhixiang's financial report, the number of new franchise stores of Weizhixiang in 2021 will be 304, but 102 stores will be closed; In 2022, the number of new franchise stores opened by Weizhixiang will be 559, and 183 stores will be closed. As of the third quarter of 2023, 1,798 franchised stores have been opened.
With the continuous expansion of the number of franchise stores, the revenue contribution of franchise stores to Weizhixiang has gradually increased.
According to Weizhixiang's financial report, the proportion of revenue realized by Weizhixiang's franchise channels, dealerships, wholesale channels and direct sales channels in the first half of 2023 is respectively. 40%, and the revenue proportions of C-end and B-end are respectively. 92%。
Qianwei Central Kitchen focuses on the B-end market. Bind big B customers with direct sales channels, and sink small and medium-sized catering customers through distribution channels.
In terms of direct sales channels, Qianwei Central Kitchen mainly sells customized products to large B customers such as chain restaurants and chain supermarkets, and Yum China, Haidilao, Wallace, Zhen Kung Fu, Lao Xiang Chicken, Luckin Coffee, etc. are its customers. The distribution channels are mostly general products, mainly relying on dealers to sell to end customers such as catering merchants, group meal canteens, hotels, and village kitchens. In the first half of 2023, the proportion of distribution channels and direct sales channels to its revenue was respectively. 85%。
Fuji Research found that in the first half of 2023, the proportion of distribution channels of Qianwei Central Kitchen will decline sharply. From 2020 to the first half of 2023, the revenue of Qianwei Central Kitchen's distribution channels accounted for respectively. 15%。In the first half of 2023, the proportion of distribution channels in revenue decreased by 1049%。
Among them, the core reason is that in addition to the decline in demand caused by the serious impact of social catering channels on big B users in the first half of 2023, the number of distributors of Qianwei Central Kitchen has also declined. According to its prospectus and financial report, from 2022 to 2023, the number of distributors of Qianwei Central Kitchen will decline from 1,152 to 1,066.
Fuji Research believes that the C-end market for prefabricated dishes is cooling down, while the B-end demand is constantly being released.
The demand of the C-end comes from the changes in the consumption structure of young consumers, and young families have relatively lower cooking skills, relatively less energy invested in cooking, and there is a trend towards miniaturization.
This trend makes it faster and more convenient than take-out relatively healthy pre-made dishes, but with the recovery of offline consumption, consumer demand for offline dine-in is also decreasing, and the demand for C-end is constantly cooling.
The demand of the B-end comes more from the demand of the catering side to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
The competition in the catering industry has always been particularly fierce, the rising costs and the consistent taste demand of chain restaurants continue to promote the development of semi-finished dishes, and the development of take-out, group meals, and rural kitchen markets makes small and medium-sized restaurants also need prefabricated semi-finished dishes to achieve the effect of reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Therefore, the demand for the B-end is also growing.
Wei Zhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen happened to step on the C-end and B-end express respectively, and Weizhixiang is widely distributed in the major farmers' markets in East China in the franchise store model, and has excellent competitiveness in the C-end; The distribution model of Qianwei Central Kitchen has developed rapidly, and the stable source of customers has been superimposed on the large B, and the competitiveness of the B-end is also sufficient.
Source: freepik
However, this track has attracted a lot of capital and giant layout, and the future is not yet known. The laying of channels is indispensable, but product categories are also inseparable from competitiveness.
In addition to the completely different channel layout, the product layout direction of Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen has also gone in different directions.
Weizhixiang's products are mainly meat-based pre-made dishes made from meat, poultry and aquatic products.
According to its financial report, Weizhixiang divides its products into meat and poultry and aquatic products, of which meat and poultry products include beef, poultry, pork, and mutton products, and aquatic products include aquatic shrimp and fish. Beef products are the main product categories of Weizhixiang.
According to its financial report, in the first half of 2023, the revenue of Weizhixiang meat and poultry, aquatic products, and other categories will account for the proportion of its revenue. 04%。
The products of Qianwei Central Kitchen are mainly quick-frozen rice and flour products.
According to its financial report, Qianwei Central Kitchen divides its products into four categories: fried, baked, steamed, dished and others, and the revenue from these four categories in the first half of 2023 accounts for its revenue. 18%, fried products as its main business.
In addition to the product classification, the product SKU should be more important.
According to Weizhixiang's financial report, as of the first half of 2023, Weizhixiang has 300+ different dish-based products, covering beef, mutton, pork and other categories. In addition, Weizhixiang also has 8 major product series, including signature dish series, home cooking series, light fried snacks series and other series.
However, Qianwei Central Kitchen did not disclose its detailed SKU distribution. Quick-frozen noodles and rice products can be divided into four categories: fried, baked, steamed, dishes and others according to the processing method, and the specific products mainly include fritters, sesame balls, sweet potato balls, egg tart skin, steamed and fried dumplings, fish every year and ** bag. In 2022, the number of products on sale in Qianwei Central Kitchen will reach more than 600.
Fuji Research believes that Wei Zhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen products are respectively distributed in meat, poultry and aquatic products and quick-frozen rice noodles. From the perspective of SKUs, Qianwei Central Kitchen is richer than Weizhixiang, but Weizhixiang is also constantly expanding its product categories. In the Chinese market, which is full of foodies, it is essential for prefabricated food companies to survive and stand out, and it is essential to constantly update their products.
According to the data of Qichacha, as of January 26, 2024, there are 6,138 county-managed enterprises of prefabricated vegetables in China. In 2022, about 368 new prefabricated food enterprises were newly registered, and about 4,385 new ones were added in 2023, making 2023 the year with the strongest growth momentum of prefabricated food-related enterprises.
As a company that will set foot in the secondary market in 2021, Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen have a C-end and B-end respectively, and their products are meat, poultry and aquatic products and quick-frozen rice noodles, which are excellent SKUs in the prefabricated food industry.
At present, the growth rate of revenue and net profit of Qianwei Central Kitchen is overwhelming, and in the view of Fuji Research, the main reason for the negative growth of Weizhixiang's net profit may be the increase in logistics costs caused by the high cost of raw materials and the performance cost of e-commerce business, which will affect Weizhixiang's net profit.
With the imminent introduction of the national standard policy for prefabricated dishes, the prefabricated food track will experience a new round of reshuffle. Weizhixiang and Qianwei Central Kitchen, who is the "new favorite" of prefabricated dishes?
Some references in this article:
1.Who is the leader of the prefabricated vegetable industry chain: 2B, 2C or shovel sellers? CBN.
2."The advent of prefabricated dishes, the heroes compete for the blue ocean track", Guohai**.
3."Listing and fund-raising grain and grass first, new channels and new markets are gradually expanding", Guoyuan**.
4."The East Wind of the Catering Industry Rises, and the B-end Blue Ocean Rides the Wind", Guoyuan**.
Fuji Research solemnly declares that the views in this article are the author's personal views and do not represent any investment advice made by this platform. Investors should make prudent and rational investment decisions.