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Should we "buy a house" or "save money" this year and next? Wealth planning advice in five years' time
Real estate in our country has been **for the past 20 years**. Most families can afford a two-bedroom house with their own savings. However, with the soaring price of real estate, in just a few years, they can afford to buy a small apartment with one living room. Later, as the house continued to climb, within two or three years, the little savings in his hand were enough to pay a down payment. Therefore, some people are always worried that if they do not buy a house at this time, it will be more difficult to afford a house in the future.
Over time, China's economy has taken on two characteristics. Today, major banks have been lowering interest rates on mortgages, which have fallen to an all-time low. At the same time, in order to reduce the cost of housing for buyers, the local government has also increased the payment limit of the housing provident fund.
Another point is that the interest rate of the bank has been decreasing. At present, the interest rate on three-year certificates of deposit has been reduced to less than 3 per cent, and the interest on one-year certificates of deposit has also been reduced to less than 2 per cent. At present, the savings interest rate of China's commercial banks has fallen to a new low, and it will continue to fall for some time to come.
So, this year and next year, is it "buying a house" or "saving money"? There are also two theories on the Internet about this. Some say that saving interest reduces the incentive to save. And now, the state has introduced a lot of preferential measures to stimulate housing, and it is a wise choice to buy a house again this year and next year. But there are also some people who suggest that there has been a huge bubble in the real estate market in Huaxia, and sooner or later it will return to its original position, so what we have to do is to save more money and wait for the ** to go down, and then buy a house.
In response to the above problems, we believe that for those who buy a house for their own residence, such as settling down, getting married, educating their children, etc., then when they have enough financial resources, they can seize the favorable policies of the state and make everyone have the ability to buy their favorite house. However, if you need to buy a property, you should still "save money" rather than "buy a house". After 5 years, everything will be clear.
First, there is still a housing bubble.
After more than 20 years of continuous climbing, the national housing ** has shown obvious bubble characteristics. Although the real estate ** in the third and fourth-tier cities is not so high, with the outflow of population, the future real estate market will have a trend of "price but no market" and "long-term decline". However, the real estate in the first and second-tier cities is very high and has exceeded their affordability, so the real estate market will have a lot of room for decline.
It is clear that in the next 5 years, the high housing prices in our country are likely to be squeezed out and gradually return to the range of rationality. Therefore, if you buy a house now or next year, then the value of the house is likely to depreciate within five years, and if you put it in the bank, at least the principal and interest will be guaranteed.
Second, the trend of housing** depends on supply and demand.
At present, there is a surplus of housing in this country, and there is a big change in supply and demand. According to the figures released by **: there are currently 600 million houses in our country. The "600 million" houses naturally include residences, campuses, factories, and so on. However, even so, the nation's housing overrun is an undeniable reality. And when the supply of housing increases significantly, the space for rising is blocked, and the room for decline is opened.
Third, there is a dwindling need for improvement.
In recent years, the number of young men and women marrying in the country has been decreasing, which means that the demand for buying a house in the future will become smaller. At the same time, in 2023, the birth rate of babies will decrease. The decrease in the number of second- and third-child families has led to a rapid decrease in the demand for housing purchases. And now, with the increase of young people and the decrease of the population, the real estate industry is also rising. In the next 5 years, real estate** will see a "steady decline", and will eventually gradually return to the nature of residential properties.