The past year has been a year of comprehensive reshaping of the real estate industry, with sufficient momentum for real estate policies, and the industry has become clear in removing risks and exploring new development models. Under the general tone of economic work of "seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking", what kind of development trend will real estate and urban renewal go out of in 2024? To build a new development model, the future opportunities of the real estate industry are in the first place?
On January 24, the "2024 China Real Estate Annual Trend Forum - and the 24th China Real Estate Fair CIHAF" jointly sponsored by China Real Estate News, the Organizing Committee of the China Real Estate Fair, and the China Institute of Urban and Regional Governance was held in Beijing.
At present, the real estate industry needs to accelerate the supply-side structural reform, increase the accuracy, flexibility and effectiveness of supply, and meet the needs of the market and people for personalization, diversification, differentiation, dynamics and even customization. Zhang Zhanbin, director of the Chinese Modernization Research Center of the Party School (National Academy of Administration), said.
Gao Peiyong, a member of the Academic Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that at present, China's economic recovery is still at a critical stage, and the primary task facing it is to promote economic recovery. In the current process of economic recovery, the new difficulties and challenges we face are concentrated in confidence and expectations, and in a sense, it can be said that this is a round of demand contraction and supply shocks mainly caused by weakening expectations. Take "stabilizing expectations" as the focus and focus on all areas and the whole process of economic work in 2024.
*Li Xiaojiang, an expert of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Advisory Committee and former president of the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, pays more attention to the changes of people and the differentiation of people's needs. He pointed out that when talking about high-quality development and high-quality life, we must study the changes in the structure of the Chinese population and people's needs, otherwise it will be an empty word. Whether urbanization is new or not, the key depends on the family, and the urbanization that can place the family is a good urbanization, not the citizenization of identity.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist of SDIC, said that the significant expansion of second-hand housing transactions in 2023 does not seem to be entirely speculative, and the correction of housing prices in the second-hand housing market is relatively close to a reasonable equilibrium level, the affordability of houses, and the removal of housing price bubbles has been relatively completed, which may be quite closely related. While the rate at which the Chinese population began to re-concentrate in cities in 2023 is slightly slower than before the pandemic, there is no doubt that this trend will continue to improve in the coming years.
Wei Chenyang, vice president of Tsinghua Institute of Financial Technology and secretary-general of PBC Global Real Estate Finance Forum, said that in the current context of macroeconomic uncertainty, real estate from incremental to stock, and industry risks have not been completely eliminated, it is particularly important to revitalize stock assets. In order to support the steady development of the real estate industry, the construction of a new real estate finance model with public REITs as the core has become a key transformation point in the new development stage of the industry. In the future, public REITs are expected to play a positive role in resolving risks in the real estate industry and reducing leverage.
In the summit dialogue session, Qiu Liqin, general manager of the investment and development department of Henderson (China), said that the real estate industry can only be precipitated and thought if it strives to "roll" up. Not only will the real estate industry be "volume" in 2023, but the real estate industry will also be in a state of "volume" in the next 3 to 5 years. Only in this way can businesses see bigger prospects and more hope.
In the face of many uncertainties in the market, enterprises should operate steadily. Road King's strategy is not to blindly increase inventory and develop prudently. At the same time, we also look forward to the improvement of the market environment as soon as possible. Diao Lu, director in charge of Road King Real Estate Group, said.
Jia Feng, chairman of Huanai Home Furnishing Group, believes that the current real estate industry is facing some difficulties is not necessarily a bad thing, because the industry can stop, think about development, return to the essence of development, return to the consumption of residents, and enterprises will also achieve sustainable development.
Dai Dawei, chairman of Tiantai Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., said that it is indeed difficult in 2023, as a private enterprise, it is impossible to increase leverage and achieve fast turnover, but it has accumulated a large amount of inventory, and it has to ensure delivery, in this case, more than 10,000 houses will be delivered throughout the year, and the way is to "squat down". "Squatting" in 2023 is to continue to sink and accumulate strength in 2024, and I look forward to everyone "standing up" together.
Consumer confidence is still there, and the real estate market is still good in the future. Li Wenjie, senior vice president of Beike Housing and president of Beike Research Institute, said.
The current demand for real estate is still there, and how to stimulate it is crucial. In the face of changes in the market environment, if you want to survive, you need to evolve; For the internal enterprise, it is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Yan Guangmao, chairman of Centaline Real Estate Beijing Company, said.
Text: Beijing Youth Daily reporter Song Xia.
Edited by Fan Hongwei.