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At the moment, the iron rice bowl is a false proposition.
Last year, there were 9.02 million new births, half of the 17.86 million newborns in 2016, and 90,000 more, which is not as bad as rumored to be, but it is not as good as imagined.
Counting the number of deaths, the total population has already experienced a negative growth of 2.08 million, and the decline cannot be stopped at all.
As for the population decline, in fact, everyone knows that there is no shortage of people in China today, we are still one of the most populous countries in the world, and the concern about the current birth population is mainly based on future social development considerations. For example, the tidal changes in the birth population are having an immeasurable impact on those working in the education industry.
Especially the seemingly unbreakable iron job bowl of teachers, in the next ten years, the quality will become more and more bleak.
Qiao Jinzhong of Beijing Normal University said that the number of students enrolled in compulsory education in the country will reach a peak of 1 in 2024After 4.6 billion, the decline will accelerate. From an average annual decrease of one or two million at the beginning, to a decrease of three or four million per year.
Eventually, it will be reduced to about 1. by 20351 billion, up from 1 in 2020400 million is a drop of about 30 million people.
Although you can see that in the past two years, there has been an unprecedented shortage of primary school places, but this is also the last highlight moment for primary school students. The peak of junior high school places will occur a little later, in 2029 and 2030. The number of new births is decreasing, the number of students is decreasing, and teachers are running out of work. According to Qiao Jinzhong's **, by 2035, there will be a surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 junior high school teachers in the country.
As the so-called landlord's family has no surplus grain, it is either open source or throttling.
At present, Beijing Fengtai has begun to explore the withdrawal mechanism of teachers. The first sentence at the beginning of the news is: teachers are no longer "iron rice bowls".
The introduction of the teacher exit mechanism is actually equivalent to "graduation from a large factory", and for teachers who do not have a staff, this kind of operation is fine, but it is cruel.
The significance of the pilot in first-tier cities is self-evident, and once successful, it can be replicated in other cities. Thinking of the "participation system" implemented in Xiamen, the "post system" implemented in Chengdu, and the "dispatch system" implemented in Shandong, simply put, there is no establishment, although the treatment is the same, but it is not a "iron rice bowl".
Let's talk about personal development. You know, the size of our teachers is as high as 1880360,000, an increase of more than 4 million compared to 2012.
Coupled with the yearning for the teaching profession, there are still countless people who go to the certification and apply for the teaching profession one after another. According to data from the Ministry of Education, the number of applicants for the UGC examination has increased by 66 times in 10 years, and the number of undergraduate education graduates has increased by 30% in five years.
After all, in everyone's eyes, "it's a big deal to go back to your hometown to be a teacher" has become the second choice in life.
But is there a possibility that you can't pass the exam after signing up?
Because there is no direct correlation between the number of applicants and the pass rate. According to the data of education and training institutions, the pass rate of the UGC written examination is only about 30%, and the interview rate is 70%.
Even if you finally pass the written interview and successfully enter the teaching team, you think that you have a moment to retreat. You will find another amazing topic - there is a moment when you want to give up being a teacher.
Do you still remember that students from famous schools went to teach in primary and secondary schools in Shenzhen en masse? Big cities, with many opportunities and incomes, are not difficult to understand. But this phenomenon has gradually spread to second- and third-tier cities.
Do you think being a teacher has a lot of money, little work, and stability? In fact, the real working state of teachers is not as easy as imagined. There are also small and large trivial things that occupy the teacher's evenings and weekends, and I have to reply to the parent group WeChat around the clock....
From this point of view, "being a teacher" seems to have become a siege.
The people on the outside want to get in, and the people on the inside want to come out.
Far away, back to the reform of the teacher establishment, it is true that the prelude to smashing the iron rice bowl has begun, but there may be a series of signals that we cannot ignore.
1. In the data of the Ministry of Finance in the first 11 months, 9 of the 13 tax items divided have declined, including last year's consumption areas, business operations, personal income and ** conditions, etc.
2. In the first 11 months, the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 4,203.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 179%。
3. Also according to the data of the Ministry of Finance, in 2023, the country will issue 9,337.4 billion yuan of local bonds, a year-on-year increase of about 27%. The debt balance increased significantly, exceeding the 40 trillion yuan mark for the first time.
In fact, whether it is financial pressure, or the decrease in land sales income, debt pressure, these three aspects are interlocking, in layman's terms, it is the pressure of money.
How to crack it? Saying a thousand things and ten thousand, it is still the four words "open source and reduce expenditure".
Everyone understands that open source is nothing more than to promote industrial transformation and bring new financial support.
The key is to "throttle". As a matter of fact, since the beginning of last year, when the comprehensive institutional reform plan was set, at least 18 provinces have successively deployed and mobilized the reform work.
In Shanxi Province, which was the first to carry out the pilot project of reorganization and reform, the establishment of many counties has been reduced, such as Hequ County, Xinzhou City, where 36 party and government institutions have been reduced to 22, 186 institutions involved in reform have been integrated into 40, and 1964 institutions have been reduced to 659.
Although teachers are not civil servants, most of the practitioners are eating the financial expenses of the local government, and they have better salaries than other professions.
In the past era of financial madness, it may still be able to be lucky. However, in today's changing internal and external environment, it is necessary to carry out institutional reform.
In fact, looking back on the drastic actions in finance, medical care, and education in recent years, you will feel that no one can stay out of these attempts to break the iron rice bowl. After all, if you look around you, the only people who really retire safely are the people who started working in the 80s of the last century. In 2024, when "first establish and then break", in the environment of East Asian involution, not being rotten is also a manifestation of self-confidence.
The ** used in this article is from the Internet, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete. The article is the original of "Daily Room Talk", plagiarism is strictly prohibited, and it must be studied deeply. (Written by: Cai Shuojun).