The following article is based on Chen Xing's macro research, written by Chen Xing and Ma Jun.
Key takeaways
What is the geometry of domestic restoration? In terms of travel, some travel indicators hit new highs, and international flights increased significantly. First, the cross-regional flow of people during the Spring Festival travel period reached a new high. Second, the passenger traffic of railways and civil aviation exceeded the level of the same period since 2019, and the passenger traffic of civil aviation increased the most compared with the previous year. Third, the passenger flow of the subway hit a new high during the Spring Festival holiday. Fourth, the level of urban traffic congestion has increased year by year since 2020. Fifth, the resumption of outbound travel has led to a significant increase in the execution of international flights. In terms of cultural tourism consumption, outbound tourism recovered rapidly, and the number of moviegoers during the Spring Festival reached a new high. In terms of tourism, travel orders during the Spring Festival increased by more than 7 times year-on-year, of which inbound travel orders increased by more than 10 times year-on-year, and outbound travel is expected to recover to about 80% of the pre-epidemic level. In terms of movies, from the first day to the sixth day of the Spring Festival holiday in 2024, the box office revenue of movies will accumulate 661.4 billion yuan, down 19%；However, the number of moviegoers has increased, and the cumulative number of 6-day movies has increased by 3 year-on-year4%。In terms of consumption, according to the data on Chinese New Year's Eve, the instant retail sales of some key large supermarkets increased by about 20% year-on-year, and the sales of catering on key e-commerce platforms increased by 40% year-on-year8%, the industry-wide online payment transactions processed by the NetUnion Clearing Corporation and China UnionPay reached a peak, an increase of 4% from 202361%, a record high for the same period in history. In terms of real estate sales, the sales of new homes in the week of the holiday were low in the same period, and the sales of second-hand houses in the week before the holiday were higher than those of new homes year-on-year. In the first 6 days of the holiday, new home sales hit a new low in the same period since 2019. In the week before the holiday, the sales of second-hand houses hit a new low in the same period since 2019, and the year-on-year growth rate was higher than that of new houses
How do global assets perform? During the Spring Festival holiday, the U.S. inflation data in January exceeded expectations, and the number of new non-farm jobs in January rose sharply, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut were lower. Most of the world's major U.S. stock indexes have**; Both Europe and Asia were strong. Overseas Treasury bond interest rates have mostly risen, with the US 10-year Treasury interest rate rising sharply, and the UK, Japan and Germany 10-year Treasury bond interest rates all rising. Commodity majority, WTI and Brent are relatively resilient and continue to weaken. Against the backdrop of a stronger dollar, the RMB exchange rate weakened, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 722。
When will the overseas crisis subside? In terms of monetary policy, the US and Eurozone inflation data for January were higher than expected, which may push the Fed and the European Central Bank to postpone both interest rate cuts, and we believe that future US economic growth will continue to slow, and the first rate cut may take place in the second quarter. In terms of financial risks, the risk of commercial real estate in the United States has spread to the banking sector, and a number of financial institutions involved in commercial real estate lending have encountered crises, and factors such as value**, high financing costs and poor leasing performance have combined to put pressure on the U.S. commercial real estate market, and small and medium-sized banks are more risky. In terms of the United States and geopolitics, the United States may reproduce the showdown between Trump and Biden, while Trump's protectionist tendencies worry European allies. The prospect of an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is uncertain, the Red Sea crisis may continue, and global shipping costs may not come back in the short term.
The body of the report
Bidding farewell to the old and welcoming the new year, this year's super long Spring Festival holiday has a strong flavor, domestic travel has reached a new high, overseas inflation in the United States has exceeded expectations, European inflation has fallen less than expected, and interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States are expected to be postponed. Looking at the demand from holiday activities, to what extent has the country recovered? When will the overseas crisis subside? This is analysed in this report.
1.What is the geometry of domestic restoration?
1.1 Travel: Travel data during the Spring Festival holiday hit a new high
During the Spring Festival, the flow of people across regions reached a new high. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from January 26 to February 13, the cumulative cross-regional flow of people in the whole society was about 41600 million person-times, with an average daily cross-regional flow of about 2200 million passengers, an increase of 15 percent from 2023 and 20193% and 110%。Judging from the cross-regional flow of population depicted by the migration index, the national migration index during this year's Spring Festival holiday hit a new high for the same period since 2019. As the impact of the epidemic subsides, the ultra-long Spring Festival holiday has driven residents' travel demand to soar.
From the perspective of passenger dispatch, the passenger traffic of railways and civil aviation exceeded the level of the same period since 2019, and the passenger traffic of civil aviation increased the most compared with the previous year. In terms of travel modes, in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival in 2023, the national railway is expected to send an average of 1,152 passengers per day40,000 passengers, an increase of 61% over the same period in 2023 and an increase of 24% over the same period in 20193%。The highway is expected to send an average of 2,555 passengers per day70,000 person-times, an increase of 37 over the same period in 20235%, down 464%。The waterway is expected to send an average of 74 passengers per day20,000 person-times, an increase of 43 over the same period in 20237%, down 50. from the same period in 20197%。Civil aviation is expected to send an average of 210 passengers per day40,000 passengers, an increase of 70 over the same period in 20237%, an increase of 188%。The growth of civil aviation passenger traffic during this year's Spring Festival holiday was mainly driven by international flights.
The passenger flow of the subway hit a new high during the Spring Festival holiday since 2019. Six days before the Spring Festival holiday this year, the average daily subway passenger volume of the top ten cities (including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Nanjing, Xi'an, Chongqing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Shenzhen) recorded 2,79360,000 person-times, an increase of 52 over the same period in 20232%, recovering to 128% in the same period of 2019; The average daily subway passenger volume in first-tier cities recorded 1,53830,000 people, an increase of 48 over the same period in 20230%, recovering to 107 in the same period of 20195%, both hitting new highs since 2019.
The level of traffic congestion in the city has increased slightly compared to last year. Six days before the Spring Festival holiday this year, the average urban congestion delay index of 100 cities across the country recorded 124, an increase of 09%；Among them, the average congestion delay index of first-tier cities during the Spring Festival holiday recorded 111. Compared with last year's Spring Festival holiday, an increase of 13%。In contrast, the traffic congestion in first-tier cities during the Spring Festival has not changed much, but with the increase in car ownership, the level of urban traffic congestion during the Spring Festival has steadily increased year by year since 2020.
The resumption of outbound travel has led to a significant increase in the execution of international flights. According to Flight Steward, in the first 6 days of the Spring Festival holiday, a total of 82,058 domestic flights and 11,007 international flights were carried out; The average daily number of domestic and international flights was 13,676 and 1,835 respectively, an increase over the same period in 2023. 6%, respectively, recovered to 2019%. With the further recovery of international routes and outbound travel business, overseas tourism is expected to occupy a more important position in the choice of residents' holiday travel.
1.2 Cultural tourism consumption: The recovery of outbound travel has accelerated, and the number of moviegoers during the Spring Festival has reached a new high
The domestic tourism market ushered in a good start during the Spring Festival. In terms of travel orders, according to Ctrip's "2024 Spring Festival Travel Market** Report", travel orders during the Spring Festival increased by more than 7 times year-on-year, of which inbound travel orders increased by more than 10 times year-on-year. In terms of air and train tickets, according to the data of the Ministry of Transport, the number of air and rail trips has far exceeded the same period of the previous year; According to data from travel platforms, the average air ticket payment in popular cities for the Spring Festival is 960 yuan**, an increase of 10% year-on-year in 2023. In terms of scenic spots, according to Meituan data, the number of scenic spot ticket orders during the Spring Festival holiday increased by more than 6% compared with last year.
From the perspective of regions, the "north-south swap" northern ice and snow tours and southern cold resorts are popular domestic tours. According to Ctrip data, the most popular destinations in China during the Spring Festival are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Harbin, Chengdu, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Sanya and Kunming. The tourism popularity of the northern city of Harbin continued from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival holiday, and the popularity ranking climbed to fifth place, with travel booking orders increasing by more than 14 times year-on-year. Sanya and Kunming, two cities that escape the cold, have seen year-on-year growth of more than 2 times and 6 times respectively in travel bookings.
The recovery of outbound travel is accelerating. According to Thailand's tourism statistics report during the Spring Festival from February 5 to 11, the number of Chinese tourists reached 872235, an increase of 38% from the previous week, far exceeding expectations. According to Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, since the 30-day visa exemption arrangement between Singapore and China came into effect on Chinese New Year's Eve, the number of Chinese tourists has recovered to 780% of the pre-epidemic level, and the number of Chinese tourists received by the industry has increased by 9 times compared with the same period last year. The China Tourism Academy predicts that outbound travel will return to about 80% of pre-pandemic levels in 2024, and Chinese tourists are returning to the global market.
The number of moviegoers during the Spring Festival hit a new high since 2022, but the box office revenue was mediocre. From the first day to the sixth day of the Spring Festival, the number of moviegoers in the film market exceeded last year, but the box office revenue was not as good as last year. According to the data of Maoyan Professional Edition, from the first day to the sixth day of the Spring Festival holiday in 2024, the box office revenue of the movie will accumulate 661.4 billion yuan, down 19%；The average ticket price is 496 yuan, down 5 percent year-on-year2%。However, the number of moviegoers has increased, with a total of 13.3 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 34%。Specifically, "Hot and Hot" ended with 23The box office of 400 million yuan temporarily ranked the box office champion, and "Flying Life 2" won 20The box office revenue of 500 million yuan ranked second, and "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" and "Article 20" ranked 11800 million and 10The box office revenue of 400 million yuan ranked third and fourth, while other films did not exceed 100 million.
Consumption during the Spring Festival holiday is full of vitality. According to the big data monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, on Chinese New Year's Eve in 2024, the instant retail sales of some key large supermarkets increased by about 20% year-on-year; On Chinese New Year's Eve, the sales of catering on key e-commerce platforms increased by 40% year-on-year8%, the passenger flow and turnover of the national demonstration pedestrian street increased by 26 year-on-year9% and 217%。According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, at midnight on Chinese New Year's Eve in 2024, the industry-wide online payment transactions processed by the Netlink Clearing Company and China UnionPay will reach a peak, with the highest concurrency at 1090,000 transactions, an increase of 4 compared to 202361%, a record high for the same period in history.
1.3 Real estate sales: sales of new and second-hand houses are at a low level in the same period of the previous year, and second-hand houses are better than new houses
New home sales offices are at a historic low for the same period during the holidays. Historically, at the beginning of the Spring Festival holiday, the daily sales area of new homes will drop sharply, and the daily sales area of new homes will rebound after the holiday. Judging from the pre-holiday sales, in the week before the holiday, the cumulative sales area of real estate was at a new low since 2019. From the perspective of sales during the festival, the sales area of real estate on Chinese New Year's Eve and the first day of the new year is at the median level of the same period since 2019, and the sales area of real estate from the second to the fifth day of the new year is at the lowest level since the same period since 2019.
Third- and fourth-tier cities are the biggest drag on new home sales. The first 6 days of the holiday cumulatively come to see,The sales area of new homes in 42 cities was 160,000 square meters, a record low for the same period since 2019, and the year-on-year growth rate recorded -78%. pointsCity levelSee, the cumulative sales volume of first- and second-tier cities is at a medium-high level in the same period since 2019, while the third- and fourth-tier cities have hit a new low in the same period since 2019, which is the main drag on new home sales. The cumulative value of new home sales in the four first-tier cities is 140,000 square meters, which is only lower than 2021 and 2022 in the same period of the calendar year since 2019, with a year-on-year growth rate of 283%; The cumulative value of new home sales in 12 second-tier cities was 970,000 square meters, only lower than the same period in 2019 and 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1845%；The cumulative value of new home sales in 26 third- and fourth-tier cities was 490,000 square meters, a new low in the same period since 2019, with a year-on-year growth rate of -929%。
In the week before the holiday, the sales of second-hand houses were low in the same period, higher than that of new houses year-on-year. In terms of trend, second-hand housing sales are similar to new homes, with daily sales areas falling seasonally before the start of the Spring Festival holiday and rebounding after the end. Judging from the pre-holiday sales, in the week before the holiday, the cumulative sales area of second-hand houses was at a low level in the same period since 2019. From the perspective of sales during the festival, the sales area of second-hand houses on Chinese New Year's Eve hit a new high in the same period since 2019, and then declined, and because less than 20% of the cities updated second-hand housing transaction data during the Spring Festival, we mainly discussed the sales in the week before the festival. At the city level, in the week before the holiday, the average daily sales area of a single city in first-tier cities was the highest, followed by second-tier cities, and third- and fourth-tier cities were weak.
The third and fourth tiers are also a major drag on second-hand home sales. Accumulated in the week before the festival,The sales area of second-hand houses in 16 cities is 7060,000 square meters, a new low for the same period since 2019The year-on-year growth rate was -28%。The cumulative sales area of the two first-tier cities of Beijing and Shenzhen is 1980,000 square meters, the second lowest in the same period since 2019, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29%；The cumulative sales area of the five second-tier cities is 3370,000 square meters, a new low in the same period since 2019, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11%；The cumulative sales area of 9 third- and fourth-tier cities is 1710,000 square meters, the lowest level in the same period since 2019, with a year-on-year growth rate of -114%。
2.How do global assets perform?
During the Spring Festival holiday, the U.S. inflation data in January exceeded expectations, and the number of new non-farm jobs in January rose sharply, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut were adjusted. After the US CPI data was released, the 10-year US Treasury yield soared more than 10bp in a single day to 431%, and the US dollar also ** to 10486 points. But the overall impact is limited, and the global **majority**.
Global **majority**. During the Spring Festival holiday (February 9 to February 15), major stock indexes are the majority**. Specifically, the MSCI World Index**08%, MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI Developed Markets rose 114% and 076%。In terms of major stock indexes, the Nikkei 225 Index **351% led the global gains, and are currently at a high of less than 1% from their all-time highs; Argentina's MERV index and Russia's RTS were the top decliners, with **199% and 10%。In Asia, the Nikkei 225 and the Singapore Straits Index both rose, while the South Korean Kospi **025%。
The U.S. stock materials sector was the top gainer. During the Spring Festival holiday (February 9 to February 15), most of them are in Europe and the United States.
All three major U.S. stock indexes rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each up**64% and 012%。Among them, the S&P 500 index hit an all-time high. In terms of U.S. stocks by industry, most of the industry indices during the Spring Festival were **, of which the materials industry and the financial industry both rose by 21%, leading other industries; Daily consumption industry**09%, the largest decline. In Europe, France's CAC 40, Germany's DAX and UK's FTSE 100 are each **49% and 003%。
The opening of Hong Kong stocks ushered in a "good start". Hong Kong ** market opened on February 14 after two consecutive days**, specifically, the Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index respectively7% and 09%。At the industry level, except for consumer staples, information technology and conglomerates, there are other sectors in Hong Kong stocks, among which raw materials, health care and industry are among the top decliners, respectively7% and 24%。
Overseas Treasury yields mostly rose. During the Spring Festival (February 9 to February 15), most of the interest rates on overseas long-term government bonds rose. Among them, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States rose sharply by 9bp, and the interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds in the United Kingdom, Japan and Germany rose by 8 per cent respectively73bp、3.0bp and 10bp；The 10-year government bond rates in France and Italy fell by 38bp and 26bp, the performance is the last.
The U.S. Treasury interest rate was once ** to 43%。During the Spring Festival holiday, the U.S. inflation data for January was released and exceeded market expectations, coupled with the previously released January non-farm payrolls data rose sharply, and the market's interest rate cut expectations cooled. The 10-year Treasury rate rose rapidly after the release of inflation data, rising by more than 10bp in a single day and breaking through 43%, the highest since December last year, before entering consolidation.
The dollar index jumped as high as 104 at one point8。During the Spring Festival holiday (February 9 to February 15), the U.S. dollar index as a whole **012% to 1043。The U.S. dollar index jumped to 104 after the release of the US CPI data8, and then entered consolidation, hitting a new high in three months for consecutive days and then falling slightly. In terms of exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate weakened against the backdrop of a stronger US dollar, and the offshore RMB exchange rate closed at 722。In addition, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the euro are also significantly higher against the dollar**.
Gold prices continued to weaken, and oil prices were somewhat weaker. During the Spring Festival holiday (February 9 to February 15), the commodity market is mostly **. The escalating situation in the Red Sea has pushed energy products ***WTI and Brent ** respectively6% to 780 and 85$8; Non-ferrous metals are common**, LME aluminum, copper, lead and zinc respectively**0% and 22%, only LME tin and nickel achieved **, with an increase of 65% and 31%。*On the other hand, the pullback in the US dollar and US Treasury yields failed to support gold prices**, COMEX **16%，comex***1.4%。The agricultural market is the majority, with CBOT wheat, CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn respectively**9% and 21%。
3.When will the overseas crisis subside?
3.1 Monetary policy in the United States and Europe: Inflation growth in January exceeded expectations, and interest rate cuts were both postponed
The US CPI growth rate exceeded expectations, and the first interest rate cut may be in the second quarter. The year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI recorded 31%, and the core CPI grew by 3 year-on-year9%, both exceeding expectations. The main reason is that the core service items** remained stubborn in January, among them, services such as car insurance, entertainment and health care***, however, leading indicators such as house prices and market rents showed a downward trend, which means that the housing items in the core services will continue to fall in the future, driving inflation to improve steadily. Overall, inflation is still in a downward channel, and the trend of moving closer to the 2% target level remains unchanged. After the release of the January inflation data, the market's expectations for the path of the Fed's target interest rate have generally moved upward, and the timing of the first rate cut has been postponed to June. In our view, while the U.S. economy remains resilient for now, economic growth will continue to slow in the future, given that the impact of higher interest rates on all sectors of the economy may gradually emerge, and the first rate cut may take place in the second quarter.
Inflation fell less than expected, and the European Central Bank may also postpone the timing of interest rate cuts. Eurozone CPI growth recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, and the core CPI recorded a preliminary year-on-year value of 33%, both of which are higher than market expectations. Most ECB Governing Council members believe that, similar to the United States, European services inflation is sticky, combined with a strong labor market and excessively high wage growth, which together drive inflation growth higher than expected. WhileSticky inflation growth is also a key consideration for the ECB to maintain its hawkish outlookECB President Christine Lagarde, Governing Council members Centeno, Lane and others** all said that the ECB will not set a timetable for interest rate cuts, but will make interest rate decisions based on data one by one, and the eurozone still needs to wait for the high interest rate policy to take effect further. Regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, ECB Governing Council members Kazaks and Holzmann saidThe first rate cut in the eurozone could be in late 2024 or next year.
3.2 U.S. Financial Risk: Commercial real estate is in crisis, and the risk spreads to the banking sector
U.S. commercial real estate risks spill over into the banking sector. In February, due to the fact that the profit of the quarterly report was much lower than market expectations, and the dividend payout margin was significantly reduced, coupled with the potential risk of bad debts of commercial real estate loans, the stock price of New York Community Bank appeared many times**. In addition to the New York Community Bank, some of the other institutions involved in commercial real estate lending in the United States have also suffered from the crisis. For example, JER Trust** filed for bankruptcy at the end of last year, and KKR REIT's share price plummeted after it squeezed its dividend payout to deal with non-performing loans. Real estate analyst firm Green Street noted that U.S. commercial real estate values have fallen 22% since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, while the U.S. banking sector held about 2.2% at the end of the third quarter of 2023$7 trillion in commercial real estate debt.
Small and medium-sized banks are more risky. Commercial real estate value**, while high interest rates have increased refinancing costs, coupled with the underperformance of commercial real estate leasing due to the prevalence of remote work in the post-pandemic eraA combination of factors has weighed on the U.S. commercial real estate market and increased banking risks for commercial real estate loans. Consider that commercial real estate loans account for 28 percent of small banks' assets7%, compared to 6 for the big banks5%。This means that smaller banks with less loss-absorbing capacity have greater exposure to commercial real estate. Yellen also said that smaller banks could be under pressure from the commercial real estate sector. The Federal Reserve**, such as Barkin's request for the banking sector to prepare for commercial real estate risks, and the European Central Bank's warning that commercial real estate risks in the banking sector could lead to higher capital requirements.
3.3 United States**: Trump and Biden lead in the primaries, and all parties are preparing for Trump's re-election
The United States may reproduce the Trump and Biden showdown. Trump has won Republican primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as a Republican caucus in Nevada, while Biden has won his first Democratic primary in South Carolina. In addition, polling data such as FiveThirtyEight also show that Trump and Biden are far ahead of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, respectivelyBut Trump has a slightly higher overall approval rating than Biden.
Trump's protectionist tendencies have worried European allies. Trump said that if elected, he would impose tariffs on most foreign products to encourage domestic production. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that Trump's re-election could put Europe back to high tariffs on US exports, and British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt also warned Trump that protectionist policies would be a serious mistake. Japan has sent a former prime minister to Trump to woo him in order to rally support on issues such as security and security. In addition to the tariff issue, Trump also said that if he is elected, he will not continue to appoint Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve.
3.4 Geopolitics: Ukraine is showing signs of decline, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Red Sea crisis continue
Ukraine is showing signs of fatigue. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is about to enter its third year, and Western aid to Ukraine, especially military aid, is exhausted. In the past six months, among the large-scale aid provided by Europe and the United States, only the European Union has passed a new economic aid bill of 50 billion euros. Although the United States has introduced the latest military aid bill, which has been voted on by the Senate, it still needs to go through the House of Representatives in the future. In the face of dwindling aid and a failed battlefield offensive, Ukraine's Zelensky announced changes to a number of top military officials. The new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army said,The situation on the front line is difficult, and the Ukrainian army has shifted from offensive to defensive.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Red Sea crisis continue. Red Sea side,The Houthis continued to attack a number of merchant ships and **, while the United States and Britain carried out counter-air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Although the Houthis have announced that the targets of their ship attacks include only Israeli, American, and British ships, global shipping** remains high. Palestinian-Israeli side,Israeli forces continue to attack Gaza and southern Lebanon, while there is little hope for Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire talks. On the whole, the prospect of the end of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is uncertain, the Red Sea crisis may continue, and global shipping costs may be difficult to fall in the short term.
Risk Warning:
The policy changes exceeded expectations. The judgment of this paper on the policy is based on the current environment and historical experience, and there is a possibility that subsequent changes may exceed expectations.
The economic recovery has been slower than expected. The judgment of economic operation in this paper is based on public data, and it is impossible to predict the future economic trend.
Historical experience is invalid. Historical economic circumstances and conditions cannot be exactly the same as those of today.
Research report information
The report in this article is excerpted from the research report published by Caitong ** Research Institute, and the specific report content and related risk warnings are detailed in the full report.
*Research Report:Full scan during the Spring Festival holiday What happened at home and abroad? 》
Release time: 20242.16
Report issued by: Caitong ** shares *** has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission ** investment consulting business qualification).
Analyst: Chen Xing
SAC certificate number: S0160523030002
Analyst: Ma Jun
SAC certificate number: S0160523080004
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