The construction of factories in the mainland is accelerating, and Zhang Zhongmou's warning is worth paying attention to!
Zhang Zhongmou's words should attract people's attention!
called"Rice"The meaning of the chip is obvious. But you have to understand that this is not the ultimate product, it is the core of electronic products, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, it is the core. Some time ago, there was a set of figures that caused controversy: our chip exports decreased by 1 compared to the same period last year8%, and the export value is even more shocking**101%。Why? Despite the decline in exports, local chip factories are still under construction. Is this an opportunity or a test? TSMC founder Zhang Zhongmou once issued a warning: overcapacity may be coming. Doesn't this situation deserve our attention?
The first is the output numbers. In 2023, a total of 267.8 billion pieces will be exported globally, which seems to be a lot, but in fact it will only increase by 18%。More importantly, the export value has increased by 10.1 percent. What does it mean that production is growing slightly on one side and falling sharply on the other? In fact, the demand for wafers in the wafer market is also changing, especially for wafers with mature processes.
You might say, which process is ripe? In layman's terms, it is those chips that have matured and are very versatile. Although the demand for this product is great, the growth rate is not large, and the scale of this industry has become smaller and smaller.
At present, the number of domestic chip foundries is still growing. So far, there are already 44 chip manufacturing plants, while 32 are expected to be completed by the end of 2024. This shows that even in the case of declining exports, the output of domestic chips with mature processes is also growing rapidly. However, the underlying reason for this problem is: can the demand of the market really match it?
Zhang Zhongmou's opinion, in this case, is very crucial. He pointed out that the current requirements for mature processes are limited, and when the shortage is alleviated, it will cause overproduction. This is not only a warning for the development of the industry, but also a keen observation of the current market situation.
So, is there really an overcapacity in our chips? This is not an easy question. First, although the demand for mature wafers is increasing slowly, it is stable. Especially in the fields of new energy vehicles and the Internet of Things, the market demand for this type of semiconductor material is also increasing. Secondly, there is still a great demand for chips with mature processes in the domestic market. By 2025, we will manufacture 70% of our chips in China, most of which will use mature processes.
On the other hand, however, it is also a matter of concern. In 2022, the demand for chips will decline overall, and so will its. The price reduction of some products is as high as 90%, which brings great difficulties to manufacturers. Even so, the market share of proven chips is gradually increasing. Mature integrated circuits in China will occupy about 35% of the market share by 2027.
And then abroad. We must not only make domestic demand bigger and stronger, but also bigger and stronger, and promote products to the world. The existing mature domestic integrated circuits in China occupy an increasing market share in the world. This shows that despite the decline in export figures, the processed integrated circuits that we have become a powerful force in the world.
The U.S. concern about Chinese chips is also very necessary. The Commerce Department's announcement late last year that it would investigate the use of Chinese chips by American companies suggests that the United States wants to reduce its dependence on established Chinese products. It's an opportunity and a challenge.
Another factor that should not be overlooked is the progress we have made in advanced manufacturing processes. As we focus on perfecting wafers, we are rapidly moving towards processes of 7nm and beyond. In the long run, this will not only solve the existing mass production problems, but also enhance our international competitiveness.
Overall, the current semiconductor industry and the outlook are two sides of the same coin. On the other hand, the demand for integrated circuits with advanced processes is increasing, especially in industries such as new energy vehicles and the Internet of Things. We will focus on the perfect integrated circuit design, which is not only to meet the current market needs, but also to promote the development of the domestic industry. However, due to the changes in the international chip market and technological progress, the danger of overcapacity cannot be ignored. We must proactively revise our strategies to maintain a balance between demand and supply, and maintain sensitivity to the market to ensure long-term sustainable development.
Zhang Zhongmou's warning is undoubtedly a good warning for us. In the fast-growing semiconductor industry, we must be vigilant, seize the opportunity, prevent the crisis, and jointly create a new situation in the development of China's integrated circuits.