In today's declining real estate market, people pay more attention to the negative effects of the disappearance of the demographic dividend, but is the disappearance of the demographic dividend necessarily unfavorable?
If real estate, pension and even economic development are pinned on the demographic dividend, does this mean another kind of "borrowing the new to repay the old"? It is certainly unhealthy to use the labor of the newly-born population to carry the overall debt of society and to develop the economy by constantly expanding the debt snowball. The demographic dividend certainly contributes to economic development, but it is not the only focus.
From demographic dividend to industrial upgrading.
The prerequisites for the increase in residents' income are:
The demand for labor is growing faster than the population growth rate; The wage growth rate is not lower than the GDP growth rate. Only in this way can we achieve a real increase in residents' income.
The disappearance of the demographic dividend will lead to a gradual decrease in the supply of labor. However, due to the fact that the huge domestic population will not disappear quickly, the consumer demand in the domestic market still exists, and the demand for natural labor will not shrink significantly. Not to mention the need for global export markets. Therefore, with the passage of time, the reduction of labor supply brought about by the disappearance of the demographic dividend is conducive to increasing the average income of labor. For enterprises, the increase in labor costs will stimulate automation and intelligence in the production process and improve the industrial structure. On the other hand, only the increase in the level of wages can promote the improvement of mass consumption and meet people's desire to continuously improve the quality of life.
From demographic dividend to service industry development.
The huge population does not only have advantages, but also disadvantages. The large population has pulled down the labor force**. From the perspective of full employment, the excess population that needs to be digested by the industry can only take root in labor-intensive industries for a long time, and it is difficult to achieve industrial transformation and technological innovation, and in the long run, it will be in a disadvantageous position in the global industrial chain.
The total population is no longer a necessary condition for the success of the country in modern societyFull employmentIs. Only when full employment is achieved can it be possible to raise wages, and when the wage level is raised, technological progress will be stimulated, industrial transformation can be realized, and a virtuous circle of economic development can be formed.
At present, China is in a critical stage of industrial transformation, and a large number of labor-intensive industries are being transferred to other low-income countries. In order to absorb the massive labor released by the transferred industry, it is necessary to develop the service industry. However, the development of the service industry needs to be supported by cities with concentrated populations. Therefore, the surrounding population will be gathered accordingly through the model of developing economic zones in China, which not only solves the problem of industrial upgrading, but also solves the problem of population employment through the development of service industry. At present, there are ten major economic zones in China: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, Chengdu-Chongqing, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, Guanlong, Northeast China and Yunnan-Guizhou Economic Zone.
The demographic dividend is no more: a new driving force for China's economic growth.
The disappearance of the demographic dividend is not the real reason for the slowdown in China's economic growth. The core reason is the narrowing gap between China and the world's developed countries. Technological progress can significantly increase the production and consumption market. When China's scientific and technological level is getting closer and closer to the level of developed countries, the growth rate will naturally move closer to them and gradually decrease. This is an inescapable trend, and we can only wait for the next scientific and technological innovation.
However, China still has great potential for economic development, which is mainly reflected in the characteristics of China's large economic aggregate but uneven income distribution. By adjusting the income distribution mode, the income level of the labor force will be raised, and the gap between the rich and the poor will be alleviated, so as to further stimulate the domestic consumer market and increase production and consumption demand. At the heart of it is distribution and full employment。Therefore, we can see that domestic policies have continued to put forward the idea of "common prosperity" in recent years.