2024 is the first year of the United States, but now Biden's situation is very bad, and Biden is likely to make a desperate bet in desperation, and the national fortunes of the United States may be put on the gambling table by Biden.
Since August 2021, Biden's public approval rating has not reached half of it. In September 2023, it was only 42%, in October it fell to 40%, in November it further refreshed a new low of 39%, and in December it was even as low as 35%.
But in fact, in 2023, the U.S. economy will perform very well. Although many economists ** the United States will enter a recession, at least the United States has survived another year.
But perhaps Biden himself is well aware that the crisis is not being effectively defused at the moment, but only postponed it backwards. In case the crisis breaks out in 2024, then ** has nothing to do with Biden.
Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has embarked on a frenzied interest rate hike, which has led to an increase in debt interest expenses, an increase in the cost of obtaining funds for businesses, and consumers are also facing rising interest rates on credit cards and mortgages.
In this case, a recession is in line with the principles of economics.
But the recession in the United States has not come, in fact, the most fundamental reason is that Biden continues to roll out fiscal stimulus. In fiscal year 2023, the deficit was as high as 17 trillion dollars.
It is conceivable that in the absence of a significant increase in fiscal revenue in 2024, Biden will further expand spending in order to **, and the final fiscal deficit may exceed $2,000 billion.
I don't have any money in my hand, but I still need to spend money desperately, so where does the money come from?
The U.S. solution is to keep issuing more Treasury bonds. However, the amount of government bonds is constantly increasing, and the demand is constantly shrinking, resulting in the yield of government bonds remaining at a high level, and it is not even ruled out that it may be re-rated to 45% or more.
This is bound to have a ripple effect.
When someone needs a loan to buy a house, they may have no choice but to find that the mortgage interest rate in the United States has soared to more than 7%, and they have no choice but to give up the plan to buy a house.
Some people spend ahead of time and use credit cards, as long as their future income increases, they can naturally fill the hole in the credit card, but they find that the annual interest rate of the credit card has soared to 20%.
However, American consumers can no longer buy houses and can no longer consume, and American enterprises will inevitably shrink production and investment, which will lead to a reduction in tax revenue in the United States and a further contraction in fiscal revenue. Then the fiscal deficit passively widened.
A vicious circle is formed.
If in the end Biden wins, then he will face the pit he dug in the next term. If Biden is not re-elected, then the next ** will also have to be saddled with huge debts. Either way, it will hurt the fortunes of the United States, and it is likely to have a bad impact on the global economy.
Europe is still in deep trouble and shows no signs of improving, which will also have a negative impact on the global economy.
Both the US and European economies are dragging down the global economy, and the only one to count on is China.
So, what opportunities does China face in 2024?
First of all, the dollar is likely to start a cycle of interest rate cuts after May this year, and there may be a large outflow of funds from the previous influx into the United States. When the capital re-chooses the direction, a little comparison shows that China's economy is stable, and there is huge room for future growth, which is one of the best choices.
As a result, we are likely to see a significant inflow of foreign capital. Second, China has a complete industrialization system, does not rely too much on the external environment, and has been vigorously promoting internal circulation in recent years, and the economy is in a recovery cycle.
Therefore, in 2024 we should make good use of this opportunity.
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