After the full-scale outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the general view is that because Ukraine wants to join NATO, it will affect Russia's security and eventually lead to war.
But what is little known is that the former Ukrainian ** Yanukovych made it clear when he ran for election that Ukraine would not join NATO. Immediately after being elected, he visited Moscow and once again publicly promised not to join NATO.
Then Yanukovych signed the "Law on the Principles of Domestic and Foreign Policy", which legally clarified that the basic principle of Ukraine's foreign policy is to abide by the policy of non-alignment and not to join any military-political alliance.
Why say Yanukovych, because the starting point of the conflict was during his tenure. Even though he has repeatedly stressed that he will not join NATO, he has not been able to stop the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. So it is clear that the starting point of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not Ukraine's quest to join NATO.
So what is the immediate cause of the conflict?
Yanukovych (left) After independence, Ukraine is faced with the question of who to rely on to develop its economy, which is actually not complicated, and at least you can drink soup by following the rich people.
Suppose you are given a visa now and you are given the choice to go west or east, I believe that anyone with an IQ of more than 90 will choose the same direction.
However, there are very complex reasons behind Ukraine's inability to make independent choices and get rid of Russian influence for decades.
From a historical point of view,As early as the time of Polish rule, the Cossack chieftains of the eastern region of Ukraine rebelled with the help of Tsarist Russia. Later, Ukraine was ruled for a long time, especially during the Soviet period, and a large number of Russians migrated to eastern Ukraine.
As a result, there is a great conflict between the ideas of the people of the east and west of Ukraine after independence, and the two concepts are evenly matched, and the reaction in the political situation is that Ukraine is suddenly pro-Western and pro-Russian, and once there are signs of pro-Westernism, it will be quickly extinguished.
From an economic point of view,Most of Ukraine's industry and important minerals are concentrated in the east, and before independence, these products were produced according to Soviet standards and supplied to the Soviet republics. Ukraine wants to get closer to the EU, but it will take some time to reform to bring itself into line with EU standards.
If, during this transition period, Russia and the CIS countries under its influence refuse Ukrainian products, then a recession in Ukraine is inevitable. In fact, Russia often uses this trick to put pressure on imported products whenever pro-Western tendencies appear in Ukraine.
From a resource perspective,Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russia for gas imports, and almost every year during the pro-Western Yushchenko administration, Russia used gas to jam Ukraine's neck. Although now people often say that Russia and Ukraine are brothers, Russia's gas for its brothers is much higher than that of the European Union, and this is the consequence of getting stuck. Natural gas has almost become a lifeline for Ukraine's economy.
Russia does not want to see a fully pro-Western Ukraine, and the prevailing narrative is that Russia wants to create a "buffer zone". In fact, even more important is the port of Sevastopol in Crimea, which is an excellent ice-free port that has been the station of the Black Sea Fleet during Soviet times.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia leased the port of Sevastopol from Ukraine. It is not difficult to imagine that once Ukraine is fully pro-Western, it is likely that the lease will not be renewed with Russia after it expires, and it may even be transferred to NATO as a naval base. At that time, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be completely blocked.
Russia is hell-bent on keeping Ukraine on its knees, but there are three options:
The first is to provide vigorous economic assistance to help the Ukrainian people live a richer life than the European Union, and they will not be able to drive away at that time.
The second is to help the Ukrainian elite stay on the stage forever, like Lukashenko, to win over a small number of people to control a country.
The third is to use the threat of force, pinch the soft underbelly, and pinch if you are disobedient.
In terms of economy, there is basically no shortage of Russia in Ukraine, and there is no complementarity between the two countries. At most, Russia can only sell some cheap gas to Ukraine, let him collect some pipeline transit fees, and give some industry that it has leftovers.
Russia's market is too small, and it is barely enough to support Ukraine, with a population of 40 million. Ukraine messes with him, no matter how well it does, it can only be mixed into a big Belarus.
The most embarrassing thing is that after Ukraine's independence, it imitated the West and established a system of "separation of powers", which, although imperfect, basically achieved the rotation of political figures. In the decades of independence, the common people have made a big fuss several times, and no politician dares to risk the world's condemnation to learn from Lao Lu.
Therefore, Russia only has the means of jamming the neck to use. In addition to natural gas, the biggest killer is actually the pro-Russian people in eastern Ukraine, who can have a lot of influence politically due to their large numbers. Ukrainian politicians have to worry about their emotions and do not dare to go too far, even if they are pro-Western.
As the saying goes, a twisted melon is not sweet, and it is difficult to tie a person's heart by force.
Ukraine under the warAs mentioned earlier, Ukrainian industry was originally designed specifically for the Soviet republics. After the independence of various countries, barriers arose between countries, and it was not as convenient for Ukrainian products to enter as before. And because it does not meet EU standards, it is also difficult to open the EU market.
More importantly, the political situation in Ukraine is turbulent and tends to shift between east and west, which makes the investment environment harsh and foreign capital does not dare to enter easily. For decades, whenever Ukraine wanted to go west, it was always dragged back by reality.
In the end, a vicious circle was formed, which was not kissed by the mother and the father was not painful. Therefore, Ukraine has been independent for several decades, and there has been basically no development, and the economic level is even lower than before independence. Those with vested interests in the Soviet period naturally miss that era.
As a Soviet country, Ukraine inevitably suffers from ills such as corruption and monopolies. Politicians continue to stage the drama of "you singing and I appearing", and political and economic interests are monopolized by oligarchs and interest groups. There has never been a ** who can take ordinary people out of the predicament, and the people are generally dissatisfied with the status quo.
As the saying goes, when you are poor, you think about change. In 2004, the Ukrainians elected an all-round pro-Western ** - Yushchenko. It should be noted that he did not rise to the sky in one step, but has a long political experience, founded his own political party and developed step by step into the largest party in parliament, and then was elected.
During Yushchenko's administration, Ukraine experienced a brief economic boom and even an 8% growth rate. He also promoted Ukraine's successful accession to the WTO. But that's not the pointAfter his election, Yushchenko publicly stated that his first task was to promote Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
It is not easy to join the EU, and the first step is to sign an association agreement with the EU and become a candidate country for the EU. Then carry out deep institutional reforms until they meet EU standards.
Yushchenko has made a lot of progress during his tenure: he pushed forward negotiations on mutual visa exemption with the European Union, and planned to establish a free ** zone with the European Union first. According to the agreement, Ukraine's steel and textile products will be exported to the EU with zero tariffs, and the EU will also give Ukraine 80% of agricultural products with zero tariffs. This is great for the Ukrainians.
After hard negotiations, by the end of Yushchenko's term, the negotiations on mutual visa exemption and the free ** zone were basically agreed, and the next step was to go through the process and wait for signing.
However, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States affected the world, coupled with the fact that natural gas has been stuck by Russia, the Ukrainian economy has been hit hard, entering a recession, and even experiencing a negative growth of 14%.
In the 2010 elections, the pro-Russian ** Yanukovych came to power.
Yushchenko politicians usually do not write their tendencies on their faces. Yanukovych's campaign slogan was also EU First. This shows that Ukrainian politicians clearly know which side to lead the country to prosperity and where to win the support of the people.
But Yanukovych also believes that Ukrainian products need a transition period to meet EU standards, and until then, Ukraine still has to do business with the CIS countries and must maintain good relations.
So in Yanukovych's view, the EU and Russia are in a long-term and near-term relationship. Therefore, he advocated a balanced strategy and wanted to make Ukraine a neutral country. That is to say, many people now say that a small country is sandwiched between big countries, and it should be left and right, and neither side should be offended.
Yanukovych's statements were only intended to appease the mood of the opposition in order to win more votes and at the same time not spoil the impression of the West on him. That's what he said, but in a different way.
As soon as Yanukovych came to power, he visited Moscow and made promises:Ukraine will not join NATO; guarantee of the status of the Russian language; extension of the lease of the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea; The two sides have stepped up economic and trade cooperation.
Soon after, Yanukovych signed the "Law on Principles of Domestic and Foreign Policy," which stipulates that Ukraine will abide by the principle of neutrality and legally make it clear that it will not join NATO.
Yanukovych seems to be neutral, but in fact it is impossible for NATO to accept Ukraine as long as Russian troops are present in Crimea. And Russia is fighting and pulling for Yanukovych:
Russia will never want to see Ukraine sign a free ** agreement with the EU, because as the integration of Ukraine and the EU continues to advance, and then cooperation in the social field including mutual visa exemption and legislative standards is implemented, Ukraine will completely get rid of Russia's influence and become a European country.
Russia threw out the Customs Union (unified tariffs for Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan) and invited Ukraine to participate. During a visit to Ukraine in 2011, Putin said that if Ukraine joined the Customs Union, it would enjoy preferential treatment on natural gas**, which alone would save $8 billion.
At the same time, Putin threatened that if Ukraine wants to join the free ** zone with the EU, a large number of products that do not meet EU standards will still flow to Russia, and Russia will have to "build a tariff border" at that time.
The tariff in Ukraine at that time was about 45%, which will be raised to 10 if you join the Customs Union25 percent, which would break the WTO and the commitments he made during negotiations with the EU, and make it impossible for him to join the EU again.
Ukraine is also faced with a dilemma, Yanukovych also wants to walk a tightrope, and neither side is offended. At first he politely rejected the customs union, but as the domestic economy deteriorated and Russian pressure increased, his attitude towards the customs union softened.
On the one hand, he expressed his readiness to develop cooperation with the Customs Union and to sign cooperation documents in accordance with the 3+1 model (no formal accession). At the same time, however, the Association Agreement was initialled with the EU.
Russia is reluctant to give Ukraine room to walk a tightrope, and after learning that it has initialled with the EU, it exerted more pressure. At the end of August 2013, Putin had a direct showdown, and if Ukraine did not join the Customs Union, Russia would be forced to take protective measures.
At a critical juncture, Yanukovych made a sudden U-turn, announcing in late 2013 that he was suspending the signing of an association agreement with the EU and attempting to join the customs union. According to later ** reports, the inside story of Yanukovych's sudden turn was:
Ukraine's treasury is empty, it owes a lot of foreign debt, various economic indicators are also turning red lights, the country is on the verge of bankruptcy, and Yanukovych's position is becoming more and more precarious. You must know that Yanukovych has dealt a blow to a group of opposition parties during his tenure, and once he himself is likely to be retaliated against, the other side is likely to retaliate.
In this case, he negotiated with the European Union and Russia, respectively, in the hope of receiving $20 billion in aid. But the EU's money has to be scrutinized by public opinion institutions, and in the end it can only come up with 610 million euros, and it also proposes deep economic reforms in Ukraine.
Russia, for its part, is willing to spend $15 billion and give a 30% concession on natural gas. For Yanukovych, saving his life was at stake, and only the conditions offered by Russia could save him, so he decided to postpone the formal signing of the association agreement with the EU.
Yanukovych's decision directly led to the political crisis in Ukraine. Dialectical materialism believes that internal causes are the fundamental reasons that determine the change and development of things, and external causes can only play a role in changing speeds. The internal cause of Ukraine is that the general disagreement of the common people to join the Customs Union.
They consider the Customs Union to be an "eternal community", which is why it is extremely attractive to Yanukovych. But for ordinary people, this meant boundless corruption, a Soviet-style economy, and a low standard of living.
As a result, demonstrations broke out in various places, demanding that Yanukovych fulfill his promise to sign an agreement with the European Union. Yanukovych's initial attempts to suppress it led to an even larger conflict.
The anger everywhere could not be suppressed, and Yanukovych had no choice but to compromise with the opposition and accept the resignation of the entire cabinet. But the demonstrators were still not satisfied and demanded that Yanukovych also **. Yanukovych then fled to Russia, and the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove him from office.
After Yanukovych fled to Russia, he asked Russia to send troops to help restore his position, but Russia sent Wagner troops to forcibly occupy Crimea and incite pro-Russian ethnic groups to fight for independence in eastern Ukraine.
At this point, it can be summarized that the cause of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not that Ukraine wants to join NATO, but that the common people want to join the EU and change the status quo of poverty. The EU is not a military organization.
But after Russia's forcible occupation of Crimea, the nature of things completely changed, and the use of military forces to seize sovereign territory meant war for any country. Russia has done more than that, and has also incited pro-Russian people to fight for independence in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine is well aware of its strength and has not started a war against the Russian army because of the occupation of Crimea, they have prioritized targeting the ** forces in the country. At that time, the ** forces were far more than the two regions of Luhansk and Donetsk today, but spanned the entire eastern region of Ukraine from Kharkiv in the north to Mariupol in the south.
Ukraine's famous Azov Battalion was created at that time, and at first they were just a predominantly nationalist football club in Kharkiv. They spontaneously organized themselves to fight the ** forces, stabilized Kharkov, and then fought all the way to Mariupol.
Although the Ukrainian army of the Wagner troops occupying Crimea is very stretched, it is still more than enough to fight the armed forces of the local security regiments in eastern Ukraine. After the incident, the declassified information of all parties showed that it was precisely because the armed forces in eastern Ukraine could not withstand the fight that Russia transferred the Wagner group in Crimea to eastern Ukraine, and then the Ukrainian army was severely attacked.
As a result, the Ukrainian side had to agree to negotiate a ceasefire with the militia in eastern Ukraine, in which the two sides stopped fighting. Ukraine understands that it will not be able to recover its territory on its own, and can only look for foreign aid. It can only be said that it is a helpless choice for Ukraine to find NATO, if it is not for the fact that the territory is **, who wants to go to war?
The combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army, which has been trained by NATO and equipped with part of NATO's **, has increased significantly. In the ensuing battles, constantly won, recovering a significant part of the territory of the Donbass region. At this time, Russia finally could not sit still, because once the Donbass was completely recovered, Ukraine's next target would definitely be Crimea.
So there was the classic scene that everyone knew quickly, Russia said that it never wanted to go to war, and the whole world laughed at American intelligence, but a few days later the war was in full swing.