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Before the blockbuster CPI was announced, the S&P** hit a two-year high, and the Nasdaq was in the red for four consecutive days; Microsoft rose nearly 2% to a record high; The chip stock index fell, and TSMC fell more than 1% after its earnings report, butNvidia hit a record high for three consecutive days, closed up more than 2%, five consecutive gains.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up to 40%。The U.S. dollar index retreated.
Bitcoin fell below 4 intraday$50,000, down more than $3,000 from the previous day's high, after the revision of the relevant rules of spot ETFs was approved in the United StatesThe ETF listing is in sight, and Bitcoin once rose more than $2,000
U.S. oil inventories rose more than expected, ** erasing intraday gains of more than 1% and turned down, closing down at least 1%. U.S. natural gas stopped six consecutive days, falling from a nearly two-month high. **Three consecutive declines, closing a four-week low. London copper stopped eight consecutive declines.
In terms of the Chinese market, the three major A-share indexes bottomed out in the morning and rebounded, weakened in the afternoon, and finally closed down, shipping was at a low level throughout the day, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 closed up more than 1%, and the big consumption rose in the afternoon, and liquor and photovoltaic rose in the front. During the U.S. stock market, the Chinese concept stock index fell for five consecutive years, with Dada falling more than 5% and Li Auto falling more than 2%. The offshore yuan fell more than 100 points intraday and fell to 7 for the first time in four weeks19。
**ScaledChina PlacePlan to reserve ultra-long-term special treasury bond projectsto support food security, energy security, industrial chain security, new urbanization, rural revitalization and other fields.U.S. stocks: The Dow rose 045%, the S&P 500 rose 057%, the Nasdaq rose 075%。Shanghai32 measures are proposed to support venture capital: expand the scope of the pilot project of physical distribution and vigorously develop S**; BeijingMunicipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Make great efforts to make a good start in the first quarter and further promote the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises.
Goldman SachsOptimisticChina**The CSI 300 Index is expected to return 19% in 2024
JapanThe slowdown in wage growth weighed on the central bank's tightening expectations, and the Japanese stock index rose more than 2% to a new high.
Digital currencyMilestone moment: U.S. SEC approvalBitcoin spot ETFsRelevant rules modifications, ETFsThursday trading
openaiNew Year's blockbuster release,GPT Store is launched, new products for corporate customers are also coming.
European stocks: Europe's STOXX 600 index closed down 018%。Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 001%。France's CAC 40 index fell 001%。Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 042%。
A shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 287770 points, down 054%。The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 892279 points, down 055%。The GEM index closed at 174320 points, down 043%。
Bond marketBy the end of the bond market, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note was around 403%, up about 2 basis points in the day; The two-year Treasury yield is around 436%, roughly the same as the same period on Tuesday.
commodity: WTI closed down 0$87, down 120% to 71$37 barrel. Brent closed down 0$79, down 102% to 76$80 barrel. COMEX closed down 026% at 2027$8 oz.
Domestic macro
* Times: The 10-year Treasury yield broke 2 again5%, the policy of stabilizing expectations should be more and more early. Huatai ** believes that the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell below 25% means: interest rate cuts guide the funding rate downward; The cost of bank liabilities is still high, and deposit interest rates need to continue to be lowered; The probability of a gradual decline in U.S. bond interest rates is high, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States is compressed. Local governments plan to reserve ultra-long-term special treasury bond projects. **It was learned that these places are planning projectsThe direction of support is food security, energy security, industrial chain security, new urbanization, rural revitalization and other fields。These areas are also the focus of economic work in 2024. The ** Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2023 proposed that in 2024, it is necessary to do a good job in "three overall planning", that is, to coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen the supply-side structural reform, to coordinate the comprehensive revitalization of new urbanization and rural areas, and to coordinate high-quality development and high-level security. Zheng Shajie, director of the national government, presided over the symposium and continued to communicate with private enterprises on a regular basis. Zheng Shajie said that in the next step, the country will carefully sort out the opinions and suggestions of the participating entrepreneurs, establish a mechanism for cross-regional and cross-departmental coordination and problem solving, based on the overall situation, and draw inferences from one anotherIn conjunction with relevant departments, we will increase the degree of protection of the property rights of private enterprises and the rights and interests of entrepreneurs in accordance with the law。The state issued the "Special Management Measures for Budgetary Investment in the Construction of Urban and Rural Cold Chain and National Logistics Hubs". Among them, it is mentioned that the logistics infrastructure makes up for the shortcomings of the project. Focus on supporting the projects that have been included in the annual construction list of national logistics hubs, national backbone cold chain logistics bases and national demonstration logistics parks to make up for the shortcomings of basic, public and public welfare facilities.
Shanghai proposed 32 measures to support venture capital: expand the scope of the pilot project of in-kind distribution and vigorously develop S. The "Several Measures to Further Promote the High-quality Development of Shanghai's Equity Investment Industry" triggered by Shanghai Municipality emphasizes that it is necessary to promote the innovation of QFLP pilots, expand investment fields and investment methods, optimize the pilot application and change processes, and facilitate institutional investors such as sovereigns, pensions, donations, and universities to invest in entities through QFLP pilots. Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Make great efforts to make a good start in the first quarter and further promote the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises. Other key tasks highlighted at the meeting of the Beijing SASAC include: this year's systematic governance of corruption in state-owned enterprises focuses on common and prominent problems, deepens the application of achievements, and makes up for the shortcomings of the system; Make full use of information technology to strengthen the supervision of state-owned assets. Changzhou officially announced that it had entered the "trillion club", and Jiangsu became the first province to have five cities with a GDP of more than one trillion yuan. A new generation of meteorological supercomputing system has been completed, and the computing power has been increased by 65 times. The launch of Chang'e-6 is scheduled for the first half of this year. China and the United States held the 17th National Defense Work Meeting. The Chinese side expressed its willingness to develop healthy and stable military-to-military relations with the United States on the basis of equality and respect, and to jointly implement the important consensus reached at the San Francisco summit between the two heads of state. The Chinese side stressed that it will never compromise or make concessions on the Taiwan issue, and demands that the US side abide by the one-China principle, earnestly implement the relevant commitments, stop arming Taiwan, and oppose Taiwan's "independence." China urges the US to reduce its military deployments and provocative actions in the South China Sea, and to stop providing support for the infringement and provocation of certain countries. Goldman Sachs is bullish on China**, with the CSI 300 Index expected to return 19% in 2024. Goldman Sachs alsoThe MSCI China Index is expected to return 17% in 2024, the return on the two major indices** is derived from ,Corporate earnings are expected to grow by about 10%, and China's policies are being implemented effectivelyDomestic companies
Supported by the demand for AI chips, TSMC's fourth-quarter revenue was higher than expected, on par with historical highs. TSMC announced that its revenue in December 2023 fell by 84%, extending the double-digit month-on-month decline in November, and full-year revenue fell 45%。Zhou Hongyi, Feng Lun and other entrepreneurs organized a group to find Dong Yuhui to learn about the Internet celebrity economy. The day before Zhou Hongyi posted on Weibo to reveal the group study, on January 9,Dong Yuhui's personal studioThe official "Walking with Hui".Douyin accountTurn onThe first live broadcastThe broadcast began for 3 hoursAfter the live broadcast roomSalesAlreadyBreakthrough 1500 million yuan, ranked first on the overall list of Douyin with goods, in the live broadcast roomThe number of likes exceeded 1.1 billion。The number of fans increased by more than 3 million on the same day compared with before the broadcast. Dong Yuhui's new number premiered with more than 100 million yuan, and the ** chain was separated from Dongfang Selection's self-operation. On the surface, the live broadcast rooms of "Oriental Selection" and "Walking with Hui" have the meaning of "internal horse racing", however, because "Walking with Hui" is 100% controlled by Oriental Selection Company, this competition does not have much impact on the performance of Oriental Selection Company itself. Dong Yuhui revealed in the live broadcast that "Walking with Hui" will explore the possibilities of books, culture, and tourism. According to people familiar with the matter, the field of knowledge payment may also be explored in the future. The first share to be delisted at the beginning of the year was born: *ST Huayi is about to be delisted. *ST Huayi announced that the Shanghai Stock Exchange decided to terminate the listing of the company, and the company will not enter the delisting period and will terminate the listing and delisting on January 16, 2024. The first domestic Alzheimer's disease biological drug was approved, and the annual cost of the drug exceeded 100,000 yuan for a patient overseas. Overseas macro
The slowdown in Japan's wage growth weighed on the central bank's tightening expectations, and the Japanese stock index rose more than 2% to a new high. The year-on-year growth rate of Japan's labor cash income slowed sharply to 0.0 in November, beating expectations2%, and real wages fell by 3% more than expected for the month. The Bank of Japan has increased its reasons for staying on hold this month, and the probability of raising interest rates this month has decreased. The Nikkei 225 continued to close at all-time highs, with the Topix closing at its highest level since 1990. Japanese stocks have experienced a "30-year cycle": from "38916 to 7054" fell for 20 years, and it took 15 years to rise to a new high. As Japan's inflation continues to rise, the "ridiculously cheap" Japanese stocks have attracted the attention of foreign investors such as Warren Buffett, the "god of stocks", and Japanese stocks have repeatedly refreshed historical records in the past year. BofA believes that the Nikkei 225 index is expected to hit a record high of **13% this year. Pouring cold water on interest rate cuts? ECB Vice President: The Eurozone economy will fall into a downturn again. ECB Vice President De Guindos believes that the eurozone economy will contract in the fourth quarter, and two consecutive quarters of economic contraction mean a technical recession, and the economic outlook is weak in the near future. Another ECB**, a member of the Central Bank's Executive Board, Isabel Schnabel, said that the near-term economic outlook remains weak, in line with the central bank**. Both reiterated that the ECB's decision is data-dependent. ** Previously, the ECB hinted that policy would remain unchanged this month, and both statements were in line with this hint. The Red Sea shipping crisis fermented: container capacity fell by 20% in December, and the weekly freight rate rose by 115%. Analysts expect that the Red Sea crisis may continue to ferment, and in the short term, routes will still have to be delayed, and freight rates will generally remain high and fluctuate. Howard Marks' latest statement: The era of easy money is over, and it has become harder to make money. Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, bluntly said that the market should not continue to invest with a "Goldilocks mentality", and that the benchmark interest rate will be around 2% to 4% in the next few years, rather than 0 to 2%, and the investment environment has changed dramatically. Digital Currency Milestone Moment: US SEC Approves Bitcoin Spot ETF, Trading on Thursday. For the first time in history, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved changes to the rules related to Bitcoin spot ETFsThe 11 ETFs authorized to list for trading began on Thursday。The approval is a rare compromise for the SEC, which has been denied permission for 10 years by both its current chairman, Gensler, and his predecessor, Clayton. Overseas companies
The worst layoffs in Amazon's history have expanded on a larger scale: ** and the game live division laid off hundreds of people in the New Year. Among them, the Twitch live streaming platform laid off about 500 people, accounting for 35% of the total number of employees. Amazon executives admitted that they would reallocate business investments, saying that "many companies in the technology sector are right-sizing their organizations in line with a conservative view of future growth." Microsoft is introducing a new display experience with all voice access features available on multiple monitors. Users of the Windows 11 operating system can not only interact with the screen they are currently using, but also quickly switch to another display. Users can also use drag-and-drop functionality to move files, apps, and documents from one display to another. These new features are coming to Windows 11 Build 226352915 system. OpenAI was released in the New Year, GPT Store was launched, and new products for enterprise customers also came. Launched by OpenAIGPT Store is the equivalent of Apple's App Store in the field of large models, ChatGPT Team for small business customers. This highlights that OpenAI is sparing no effort to maintain its leading position over its competitors. If successful, it will mark a new moment – where AI technology has become more approachable, useful, and profitable. ces
CES 2024 First Day Express: XR New Products are Full of Highlights, and Domestic Brands Perform Brilliantly. There are more than 4,000 exhibitors in this CES. Chinese exhibitors accounted for more than a quarter of the total, second only to U.S. companies. Among the domestic XR brands exhibited, Thunderbird Innovation focused on the "X2" series of AR glasses with greatly improved AI side capabilities, and the new Thunderbird X2 Lite; Xreal launches the Xreal Air 2 Ultra, the flagship model of its AR glasses Air 2 series; Pimax exhibited the Pimax Crystal, the industry's first 8K dual-mode VR headset that previously won an honorable mention in the "XR Technology & Accessories" category at the CES 2024 Innovation Awards. Skyworth XR exhibited three products: Pancake 2 equipped with Micro OLED screen and 4K resolution for one eye, Pancake 1, a productivity tool, and AR A1, a smart screen projection glass. CES 2024 shows a new trend in the automotive industry: the popularity of electric vehicles is weakening, and AI is becoming a trend. In addition to the hot AI sector this year, automotive automation and intelligent technology are still one of the "star tracks" of CES, and AI intelligent cockpit has become the focus. At CES 2024, more than 700 exhibitors in the field of automotive and mobility technology will be presented, including leading OEMs such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Honda, and Hyundai-Kia, as well as first-class chain giants such as Bosch, Continental, Hyundai Mobis, and Valeo. Microsoft: PC partners can run Xbox games, partner with Walmart to launch AI personalized shopping features. 1、Fuel cells|Hydrogen technology is constantly evolving. Recently, the Yixiang hydrogen-powered UAV team under the Chongqing Research Institute of Harbin Institute of Technology completed a single continuous flight test of the Qingou 30 hydrogen-powered composite wing UAV, successfully breaking the domestic test record of the same type of hydrogen-powered UAV, and the endurance reached the international advanced level. Not long ago, the team of Professor Jiao Kui of Tianjin University successfully developed an ultra-high power density proton exchange membrane fuel cell, whose performance was nearly twice that of mainstream similar products, and the relevant results have been published in the international authoritative energy research journal Joule.
Comments: According to the statistics of the China Association of China, the sales of fuel cell vehicles in China in November 2023 totaled 1,000 units, a year-on-year increase of +1725%, and the sales of fuel cell vehicles in the first three quarters of 2023 were 4,291 units, a year-on-year increase of +554%, which has exceeded the annual sales volume in 2022, and according to the development trend of previous years, the fourth quarter is the peak period for fuel cell vehicles, and the sales of fuel cell vehicles this year may reach a record high.
High-speed rail|According to the information released by the National Railway Group, in 2023, the national railway will complete the dispatch of 36800 million people, 39100 million tons, both hit a record high. Benefiting from this, the operating efficiency of the railway has been greatly improved, and the total transportation revenue of the national railway has reached 964.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%, and the total profit has reached the best level in history.
Comments: As a large-capacity, fast, safe, environmentally friendly and low-cost mode of transportation, railways play an important role in promoting economic development. In terms of passenger transport, with the increase of people's travel demand, railway transportation can provide more convenient and comfortable travel options, and promote the development of tourism, business and other industries; In terms of freight, railway transportation plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring the circulation of materials and promoting industrial cooperation, especially in the logistics chain.
AI chips|It is reported that Intel announced at the CES 2024 exhibition on January 10 that it will enter the automotive market. Intel will release a series of AI software-defined automotive system-on-chips (SDV SoCs) to compete with Qualcomm and Nvidia and take a foothold in the automotive chip market. Intel said that their new automotive chips will feature the latest AI PC technology to meet the durability and performance requirements of the vehicle and enable the most desirable in-vehicle AI functions. The first batch of automotive AI chips is expected to be launched by the end of 2024, and Intel is currently actively negotiating with a number of OEMs.
Comments: With the rapid development of the smart car market, automotive AI technology has become the focus of competition among major chip manufacturers. Intel's entry into the automotive AI chip market will further promote the development of intelligent vehicles and provide consumers with a more intelligent, safe, and efficient driving experience. At the same time, the automotive chip standard recently formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will provide a unified specification for the entire industry and promote the innovation and progress of automotive chip technology.
Railways|The 2024 China National Railway Group Work Conference proposed to strengthen the cross-regional and cross-mode integration of comprehensive transportation channels, hubs and networks, continue to expand effective investment in railways, moderately advance investment in railway infrastructure, innovate investment and financing mechanisms, and strive to promote railway transformation and upgrading. We will continue to deepen the innovation and industrial application of key core technologies in key areas such as railway engineering construction, equipment manufacturing, safety assurance, and operation management, and promote the application of new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection technologies in railways. This move is good for the core components and materials manufacturers, as well as related infrastructure leaders.
Comments: The railway projects among the 102 major projects identified in the 14th Five-Year Plan have been progressing in an orderly manner, and the investment in railway construction has played a significant role. It is reported that in 2024, the railway department will focus on the railway projects among the 102 major projects identified in the "14th Five-Year Plan", increase the implementation of national strategic corridor projects such as Xinjiang and Tibet, and border railways, actively promote the construction of key projects such as high-speed railways along the Yangtze River and coastal railways, and new land-sea corridors in the west, and complete and put into operation high-quality projects such as Shanghai-Suzhou-Huzhou high-speed railway, Hangzhou-Yiwu-Wenzhou high-speed railway, etc., to ensure the completion of annual investment and production tasks and physical workload.
Wind power|According to China Electric Power Engineering Consulting Group Corporation, on January 7, the "Jixi High-altitude Wind Power Generation New Technology Demonstration Project" jointly constructed by China Energy Construction China Power Engineering and Zhonglu Co., Ltd. and contracted by China Power Engineering Anhui Institute successfully generated electricity, becoming China's first grid-connected megawatt high-altitude wind power generation demonstration project.
Comments: High-altitude wind power generation is an innovative technology that makes full use of high-altitude wind resources, using a unique combination of equipment to complete the capture and absorption of high-altitude wind energy, converting the captured wind energy into mechanical energy, and driving the generator set to rotate to achieve continuous and stable power generation. The altitude of high-altitude wind energy is generally between 500-10,000 meters. Compared with offshore and onshore wind energy, high-altitude wind energy has the advantages of high power density and stable wind direction, and has great potential for development and utilization.
Energy storage|It is reported that in 2023, the installed scale of new energy storage in China will reach a new high. According to the statistics of the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, as of the end of December 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China has reached 345 GW 745 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of more than 150% in both power and energy scale. Among them, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach 21 in 20235 GW 466 GWh, three times the level of new commissioning scale in 2022. Yue Fen, deputy secretary-general of Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, expects that the scale of the domestic energy storage market will maintain rapid growth in 2024, with more than 35 GW of new installed capacity throughout the year, and the new installed capacity in a single year will exceed the cumulative installed capacity for three consecutive years.
Comments: From the demand side, global front-of-meter energy storage is still strong, and in 2023, China, the United States, and Europe will successively announce the increase in renewable energy construction, and China and the United States will still be the most important markets for global front-of-meter energy storage in the future. Among them, driven by technological innovation and continuous cost reduction, the LCOE of lithium battery energy storage is close to pumped storage, and the application scale will continue to expand, and the industry leader is expected to benefit.
Intellectual Property|It is understood that at the level of this round of local institutional reform, the intellectual property offices of Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing are directly subordinate to the people of the corresponding cities, and the intellectual property offices of Jiangsu, Hubei, Hainan, Shaanxi, Liaoning and Henan provinces are directly under the people's offices of the corresponding provinces. It fully shows that the local management attaches great importance to intellectual property work, and other provinces and cities will not be excluded from following up and adjusting in the future.
Comment: "2024 is a crucial year for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and it is of great significance to do a good job in intellectual property work. Shen Changyu, director of the State Intellectual Property Office, said at the meeting of the heads of the National Intellectual Property Office at the beginning of the year that it is necessary to thoroughly implement the outline for the construction of an intellectual property power and the "14th Five-Year Plan", based on the protection of intellectual property rights at the source, with the transformation and application as the traction, and the institutional reform as an opportunity to comprehensively strengthen the creation, protection, management and service of intellectual property rights, strengthen international cooperation in intellectual property protection, strive to create a new situation in the development of intellectual property rights, and better serve the construction of a modern socialist country.
The Bank of Korea announced its interest rate decision.
Australia's Goods-as-a-Service (Nov) account.
Italy's industrial production (November).
Speech by Boris Vujcic, member of the ECB Governing Council.
Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson speaks.
The 2024 edition of CES continues to take place.
US CPI for December.
New York Fed President John Williams, the Fed's third-in-command, speaks.
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