An Alipay user told a Chinese reporter that as of February 23, his portfolio had risen less than 8% year-to-date, but according to statistics, it had "exceeded 99.."94% of the country's financial friends". According to the investor, his holdings include several QDII products and dividend themes**, which were "lucky" to run positive returns after the year, and QDII** is dominated by Asia-Pacific products.
In addition, after a strong rise, as of February 23, more than 5,000 of the more than 10,000 ** in the year have achieved positive returns, which seems to be more optimistic, but if the statistical caliber is changed to active equity products, the proportion of positive performance is only 199%, and only about 40 of the more than 4,000 active equity categories have risen by more than 10%.
Some QDIIs have performed well.
As of February 23, the Nikkei 225 Index has risen by more than 16% this year, and the Ho Chi Minh Index in the Vietnamese market has risen by more than 8%, which has also driven the net value of related QDII** to rise.
According to the user, his portfolio is heavily invested in Vietnam's QDII**, and the logic of the investment lies in his optimistic judgment on this "small but beautiful" emerging market. According to the data, Vietnam recorded a year-on-year increase in GDP of 672%, showing a marginal recovery, with GDP growth of 505%, the overall economic performance was weak, mainly dragged down by weaker external demand and the downturn in the domestic real estate market. Tianhong believes that looking forward to 2024, Vietnam** aims for an annual GDP growth rate of 6%-65%, the overall policy direction is expected to remain supportive, in the context of the peak of the US bond interest rate and the easing of the pressure of the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong, the central bank of Vietnam is also expected to maintain the first monetary policy. **Continued policy support, superimposed marginal improvement in external demand, looking forward to the continuous improvement momentum of Vietnam's economy in 2024.
Entering 2024, the latest economic data shows that in January, Vietnam's total import and export volume has achieved positive growth for five consecutive months. The PMI index returned to above 50, which Tianhong ** believes shows that the manufacturing industry is picking up. In addition, FDI inflows have also remained relatively fast, which is the main driver of Vietnam's growth in the medium to long term.
At the beginning of the year, the central bank issued a credit line of 15% growth, compared to 13A further expansion of 7% is the fastest credit growth rate since 2018, demonstrating the determination of monetary policy to support the economic recovery. After four consecutive interest rate cuts, Vietnam's domestic interest rate level has returned to the lowest level since the pandemic, and it is expected that the pace of credit delivery in 2024 is expected to improve significantly compared with 2023, thereby supporting economic growth. At the beginning of the year, the National Assembly passed the new Land Law, which updated and revised some key provisions, which will help remove the institutional barriers that have continued to constrain the real estate market and further unlock the value of land.
However, looking back, Vietnam, as an emerging market, has been very volatile. The Ho Chi Minh Index, for example, experienced a huge drawdown after a doubling trend, and the retracement was close to 40% at one point.
"For the capital market, after a moderate 2023, the overall valuation level of the Vietnamese market is still at a low level, and compared with many other markets around the world, the valuation and earnings are relatively cost-effective," Tianhong** said. We expect 2024 to be a good year for Vietnam. ”
Dividend investing is in the ascendant.
According to the above-mentioned user, several dividend-themed products he invested in also performed well after the year, contributing a lot to the portfolio. Wind data shows that as of February 23, the Shanghai Composite Dividend Index has risen nearly 9% this year, becoming one of the few bright spots in the volatile **. Many of the index's constituent stocks have continued to hit record highs. Caitong ** believes that the low expectations of the domestic economy continued to ferment in January, and the market value management of central enterprises was included in the assessment, and the dividend strategy of central enterprises was "outstanding", and the better defensive attributes brought "certainty premium" to their stock prices, and coal, banks, public utilities, petroleum and petrochemical performed relatively well. In the context of prominent macro uncertainty, the market is chasing "certainty premium", and dividend assets with sustainable operation characteristics and outstanding defensive attributes are relatively dominant.
In addition, after a strong rise, as of February 23, more than 5,000 of the more than 10,000 ** in the year have achieved positive returns, which seems to be more optimistic, but if the statistical caliber is changed to active equity products, the proportion of positive performance is only 199%, and only about 40 of the more than 4,000 active equity categories have risen by more than 10%. The names of the top products include words such as "dividends" and "dividend preferred". For example, the Debang Cycle Selection of heavy coal and mining rose by nearly 16% during the year, and Yongying Dividend Preferred and Zhongtai Dividend Preferred also had double-digit increases.
Zhang Dajiang, manager of Xinhua **equity**, believes that since the market opens in 2024, the market performance of the high-dividend sector has been outstanding, and it has once become a "safe haven" for funds to concentrate and hold together. From the perspective of the whole year, dividend assets still have the competitiveness of absolute returns and relative returns, and after three consecutive years of **, the space or marginal contraction, but the performance of dividend assets will still be ahead, relatively optimistic about power, coal and petrochemical, communication operations, highways and railways, shipping and other sectors.
For high-dividend assets, there may be opportunities to obtain the stock price brought by valuation repair, the increase in market value brought by continuous earnings growth, and the interest at the same time. Therefore, high dividends are often considered by investors to have higher yields than bonds and lower risks than other equity assets.
Wells Fargo** believes that under the combined effect of the dual expectations of economic recovery and the inflection point of global liquidity, the A** market is expected to gradually come out of the bottom area. Until the inflection point is further verified, a "triangle" layout can be adopted: the defensive side can be equipped with a dividend strategy with high dividends and low valuations, benefiting from the gradual repair of fundamentals and changes in expectations.
Editor-in-charge: Wang Lulu.
Proofreading: Liao Shengchao.
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