During the Chinese New Year, my friends and I had a profound ** about the valuation of middle-aged single men in the current marriage market
25-30 years old, if you have good looks, first-class IQ (education) and the current workplace or entrepreneurial potential with broad imagination, it is still possible for the mother-in-law to value the market dream rate, because the future growth is attractive enough, even if you don't have much savings on hand and your family background is average, the valuation can also be very high;
At the age of 30-35, the market dream rate is unlikely, but the growth can still be expected, if your job or business can bring more expected forward cash flow (you can make more money in the future), you can barely give a valuation according to growth stocks;
After the age of 35, growth is no longer extravagant, it can only depend on your dividend yield and ability to create immediate cash flow (a solid foundation, more savings, and stable cash flow generation work).
Therefore, it is necessary to tell the story as soon as possible, draw the pie of "growth" but the performance is always missed, and slowly no one will believe it anymore, and in the end it still depends on the hard power.
As with the valuation of single men, after the transition from the growth stage to the maturity stage of a company and an economy, the valuation center will inevitably move downward, and the market's expectations for profit growth will shift to dividend yields.
Two birds in the forest are not as good as one bird in hand.
Return to the inevitable result of dividend yields
From the perspective of dividend yield, the market's attention is attracted by the dividend index, but what I want to say is that in fact, the broad-based index represented by the CSI 300 has shown a very good dividend yield, and this ** yield is far higher than the CSI 500 and CSI 1000.
This is also understandable, the constituent stocks of the CSI 300 itself are biased towards traditional industries, and most of the companies are in the late stage of growth or even the mature stage.
As of December 31, 2023, the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index released by China Securities Index Company reached 27%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note over the same period was 26%。
In other words, if you treat the CSI 300 as a held-to-maturity bond, its "coupon" income is already higher than that of a 10-year medium bond, and the investment value is already very high.
Looking at the comparison of historical data, in the past decade, the second highest point that is only a little lower than the current dividend yield is the stage before the start of the big bull market of blue chips from 2013 to 2014, when the dividend yield of the CSI 300 was at 2Around 6%.
Although the future CSI 300 may not necessarily replicate the big bull market at the end of 2014, one thing is certain, from the perspective of the current dividend yield, the investment value of blue chips is higher than that on the eve of the bull market in 2014.
Of course, looking at this alone, it is not only the CSI 300 that has been issued after the Spring Festival that has been issued after the Spring FestivalCSI A50 ETF E Fund (Subscription**: 563080).The same is true for the CSI A50 Index tracked by other products.
The dividend yield of the CSI A50 at the end of 2023 also came to 27%, in fact, it is not inferior to the CSI 300, plus the CSI A50 investment is the core leader of various industries, the spring of ** stocks, is it coming?
The time and life of the product are also released
In recent years, the core assets of A-shares have suffered a continuous and deep drawdown, and even if these companies are of excellent quality, they really can't stand the high valuation speculation at the beginning.
Since the CSI 300 peaked on February 10, 2021, the index itself has ** 40%, but I used choice to disassemble the situation behind the rise and fall of the index, and this loss is actually due to the change in valuation, and the profit of the CSI 300 index itself is still OK.
Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice
Because the core constituents overlap, the situation of the CSI A50 Index is similar.
For the accounts of our ordinary investors, whether you choose CSI 300 or CSI A50, the final return of the account is actually determined by the time point of intervention in the index.
Therefore, standing in such a position today, the issuance of CSI A50 ETF is still very cost-effective.
The CSI A50 constituent stocks are selected from the companies with the largest free-float market capitalization in each CSI Level 3 industry, and their positions can be regarded as real leaders in each industry, and they are sufficiently balanced in terms of industry distribution.
The texture of CSI A50, in fact, there is not much to say, they are all companies favored by foreign capital, and the current level of median ROE of constituent stocks by various institutions is also very attractive.
I choose the target, one looks at the ROE, and the other looks at the dividend yield, and now the investment value shown by the CSI A50 in both aspects is already very attractive.
From the perspective of short-term index trends, the CSI A50 is not much different from the existing broad-based MSCI China A50, SSI 50, including CSI 300 in the market, and basically maintains the characteristics of rising and falling together.
It's just that in a longer dimension, the CSI A50 has achieved better returns than similar core indices, especially in the more extreme **stocks, it is possible to obtain stronger returns.
At this moment, although there is no guarantee that the CSI A50 will rise when it is bought, we do not need to be overly pessimistic about China's core assets at this position, the valuation is cheap enough, and the dividend yield of nearly 3% also provides the necessary protection.
Now it's time to trust common sense and leave the rest to time.
I think that now that China's high-quality assets** are at a low level as a whole, taking this opportunity to launch the CSI A50 Index will help re-anchor the wealth of residents and the development of China's economy, and it will be more representative to describe the true return of A-shares in the future.
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