To stimulate potential consumption, it is necessary to adapt to the trend of consumption upgrading, cultivate and expand new consumption, actively cultivate new growth points such as smart home, entertainment and tourism, sports events, and domestic "trendy products", and enhance bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles; increase the proportion of household income in the distribution of national income and expand the middle-income group; further promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and release the consumption potential and space of consumption depressions; Give full play to the leading role of new technologies and new scenarios in new consumption, and the driving role of new ideas in green consumption and domestic consumption.
At present, China is making great efforts to expand profitable investment, and there is great potential and space for realizing the benign interaction between investment and consumption.
First of all, China's consumption has changed from survival to development and quality, but there are still problems in the supply field of low-end surplus and high-end shortage, which puts forward new requirements for investment.
Second, changing the pattern of unbalanced development requires investment. China's urban-rural and regional development is unbalanced, and it is necessary to invest to make up for shortcomings, and promote new urbanization, comprehensive rural revitalization and regional coordinated development by improving production and living conditions, so as to stimulate more consumption.
Finally, vigorously developing new quality productive forces requires investment and strengthening. The new scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are deepening and evolving. **The Economic Work Conference proposed to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation and develop new quality productive forces. The development of new quality productive forces can promote the long-term sustainable development of the economy, and create conditions for the continuous release of consumer demand and the realization of mutual promotion and benign interaction between investment and consumption at a higher level.
Tapping potential consumption can be grasped from five aspects.
The first is to grasp the consumption potential in the consumption upgrade. China's Engel coefficient still has room to decline, and the released consumption capacity will be filled by the consumption of services such as culture, education, recreation and entertainment. In terms of commodity consumption, the sales of upgraded goods have grown well. In 2023, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry, and sports and entertainment goods of units above designated size will increase year-on-year respectively2%, much larger than the total retail sales of consumer goods 72% overall growth.
The second is to find consumption potential from the changes in social structure. China has the largest middle-income group in the world, which is expected to reach 5800 million people, which will reach about 700 million by 2035. The middle-income group constitutes the main consumer of high-end goods and services in China, and the consumer demand for better quality, better performance and richer content is growing faster and has great potential.
The third is to release the consumption potential from the upgrading of urban and rural consumption ladders. Since June 2012, the growth rate of rural social zero is 1 percentage point to 3 percentage points faster than that of urban communities, and some months have changed after the impact of the epidemic, but the long-term trend has not changed, and the growth rate of rural social zero in 2023 will be 0 percentage points faster than that of urban communities9 percentage points. The growth rate of social zero in the central and western regions is mostly faster than that in the eastern region. Behind the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, the upgrading of consumption echelons contains new space and new potential.
Fourth, tap the consumption potential from new technologies and new models. At present, technology products and digital technology continue to give rise to new consumption hotspots, new scenarios and new models of consumer experience are emerging, e-commerce, live broadcast economy, entertainment, instant retail, smart stores and other new retail formats, intelligent and immersive service experience, will stimulate new consumer demand.
Fifth, stimulate consumption potential from the change of consumption concept. The concept of green consumption and domestic consumption is in the ascendant, and green products are widely popular, and new energy vehicles are typical representatives. Domestic "trendy products" continue to emerge, and time-honored brands in various fields are favored.
To stimulate potential consumption, pay attention to the following:
First, we must adapt to the trend of consumption upgrading, cultivate and expand new consumption, actively cultivate new consumption growth points such as smart home, entertainment and tourism, sports events, and domestic "trendy products", and boost bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles, electronic products, and home appliances; Second, it is necessary to continuously improve the ability of economic development to drive employment, increase the proportion of residents' income in the distribution of national income, and expand the middle-income group; Third, we must further promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and release the potential of consumption depressions; Fourth, we must give full play to the leading role of new technologies and new scenarios in new consumption, and the driving role of new concepts in green consumption and domestic consumption. At the same time, mobilize the enthusiasm of investment and private investment, reasonably increase public consumption, play a role in promoting residents' consumption, and form a joint force of the society to jointly promote a virtuous cycle of investment and consumption. We will continue to optimize the investment environment and consumption environment to provide an important guarantee for the virtuous cycle of investment and consumption.
In the next step, it is necessary to form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other, focus on expanding profitable investment, and pay attention to key products and industries. Increase investment in new changes in consumer demand and new trends in consumption upgrading, and increase investment in the optimization and upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries and emerging industries. It is necessary to focus on weak links and weak areas. We will speed up the completion of infrastructure shortcomings in transportation, energy, water conservancy, ecological and environmental protection, and social and people's livelihood, promote the construction of affordable housing, "peacetime and emergency" infrastructure, and the construction of the "three major projects" of urban village transformation, and increase investment in improving production and living conditions in rural areas and central and western regions. It is necessary to aim at new tracks and new fields, vigorously develop new quality productivity, and increase investment in digital transformation, networked collaboration, intelligent transformation, and high-quality development of the industrial chain.
The author, Guo Chunli, is a researcher and director of the Institute of Economics, China Academy of Macroeconomics