*Author: Lv Xuan, Li Guoliang Yuan Yue's consumption of alcoholic products is directly affected by the economic and social activities of social enterprises and institutions, residents' lives and social activities, is there a correlation with the ups and downs of the economic growth cycle?The study finds that the consumption and economic development of alcoholic products in Western countries with the United States as the core show a certain countercyclicality, and the consumption of alcoholic products increases instead of decreasing during the economic downturnAs an East Asian country, Japan's alcohol consumption and economic growth cycle are pro-cyclical, Japan's economy has been "lost for 30 years", and the total household alcohol consumption is also relatively sluggish, but the structural changes have certain characteristics, among which the per capita intake and sales ratio of spirits have slowly and continuously increased.
1. U.S. alcohol consumption is still growing during the recession and showing certain countercyclical characteristics
1. When the economy slows down or even recessions, the consumption of alcohol products in the United States not only does not decrease, but increases slightly. After the 2008 financial crisis, household assets and incomes shrank, and in 2009, the US GDP fell by 2 percent year-on-year00%, per capita disposable income has a negative growth, but the sales growth rate of American spirits is nearly 2%, and the fiscal revenue of American alcohol products has not been adjusted to the tax rate**26%；In 2013, due to bad weather, the GDP growth rate of the United States decreased by 0 compared with 20126%, per capita disposable income shrank again, showing negative growth, but the growth rate of spirits sales was higher than the growth rate of per capita disposable income and maintained positive growth. 
2. The unemployment rate in the United States is synchronized with the sales of alcoholic products**, and American residents use alcohol to relieve their worries and relieve pressure. Comparing the U.S. unemployment rate and the sales of alcohol products in food stores, it can be found that after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the U.S. unemployment rate hit a new high of 14 in April 20204%, and the sales of alcohol products in the United States increased by 13 percent year-on-year in the month69%。Stay-at-home orders have exacerbated depression and anxiety, and the number of alcoholics and spirits sales in the United States have increased. According to the data of Professor Zhang Hanting's lecture "Epidemic and Alcohol Dependence", the sales volume of alcohol products in the United States in 2020 increased significantly compared with 2019, of which the sales of spirits increased by 26% and beer increased by 16%. 
3. The U.S. economy fluctuates, but the market share of spirits continues to grow. In the past two decades, the economic growth of the United States has fluctuated greatly, but the per capita consumption of spirits has continued to grow. According to China Merchants ** data, the per capita alcohol consumption in the United States increased by more than 40% from 1997 to 2021, and spirits have become the leader in the American alcohol track, with the sales of spirits in the U.S. market reaching 375 in 2022US$800 million, accounting for more than 42%.
Second, Japan's alcohol consumption is basically in sync with its domestic economy, and it is sluggish, but the consumption of spirits continues to rise slowly
1. Japan's economy continues to be sluggish, and Japan's household consumption expenditure on alcoholic products has also continued to decline significantly, which has reversed after the epidemic。After 2000, Japan's technological progress slowed down, low fertility rate and aging stimulated the weakening of industrial competitiveness, Japan's economic trend continued to be sluggish, the real income level of residents was affected, and the consumption of household alcoholic products also showed a synchronous state, continuing to grow negatively. However, after the outbreak of the epidemic, the home quarantine triggered a local "online drinking" trend, and the consumption of alcohol products in Japanese households was obvious**, with the average monthly household consumption expenditure on alcohol products in Japan in 2020 being 3,061 yen, an increase of 309 yen compared with 2019.
2. Japan's economy has been "lost for 30 years", but the per capita intake of spirits and the share of spirits sales have continued to grow. After the "Plaza Accord", Japan's economic bubble burst, residents' income decreased, Japanese society entered the "lost thirty years", shochu, sake and other spirits can better undertake the demand for "borrowing alcohol to eliminate sorrows", according to the data of investment promotion, in 2020, the annual intake of spirits per capita in Japan (excluding sake) has reached 57l people, doubling from 2000, and the sales share of spirits in 2022 will be nearly 80%, and residents' alcohol consumption tends to be further concentrated in spirits. 
3. China's liquor production has shrunk due to demographic changes, but liquor consumption and economic growth in a specific cycle show pro-cyclical characteristics
1. China's liquor production has continued to decline in recent years, mainly affected by demographic changes, and has a weak correlation with the economic cycle. Combined with China's liquor production data and GDP growth rate, the relationship between liquor production and economic cold and hot is non-corresponding. As a mass consumer product, the output change of liquor is more directly affected by the change of population structure, and there is a certain lag correspondence with the birth rate of the population. Based on the business and social attributes of liquor, most consumers in China come into contact with liquor for the first time after graduating from college and entering the workplace and form certain drinking habits, so the consumer group over 30 years old is the core C-end consumer of liquor. Combined with the liquor production data and the birth rate data, it can be seen that the domestic liquor production peaked in 2016 to achieve 135840,000 kiloliters, corresponding to the birth rate also peaked at 23 in 198733, and then the production and birth rate of liquor both declined. 
2. However, in a specific cycle, there are certain pro-cyclical characteristics between domestic liquor consumption and economic growth, and when the economy is active and residents' expectations are strong, liquor consumption will increase accordingly. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, China's economy has experienced a recovery stage of trauma, recovery and stabilization, and consumer income expectations and consumer confidence are insufficient during 2020, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has increased from 8 in 20190% fell back to -3 in 20209%, and the growth rate of sales revenue of enterprises on the liquor scale also declined simultaneously, from 8 in 20192% down to 4 in 20206%。In 2021, China's economic stabilization policies will be frequent, superimposed on the low base effect, consumer expectations will be restored, the economy will improve, social consumption capacity will be further enhanced, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods will rebound to 125%, and the growth rate of sales revenue of enterprises on the liquor scale has also increased to 1860%。
3. The growth of domestic high-end liquor brands is strong, and the "Matthew effect" in the industry has been further enhanced. Since 2018, the number of enterprises in China's liquor industry has decreased year by year, and the number of enterprises in 2022 will be 964, a decrease of 39 from 20175%, the industry concentration has increased significantly. The "price rise tide" led by high-end brands such as Moutai and Wuliangye has promoted the overall sales revenue and industry profits of China's liquor industry to rise, and the overall sales profit of liquor will reach 6626 in 2022500 million yuan, the industry profit to achieve 2201700 million yuan, an increase from 2017. 1%。Comparing the profitability of listed liquor companies with the overall profit margin of the industry, it is found that the "Matthew effect" of the liquor industry is obvious, and the net profit level of Moutai, Wuliangye and Yanghe from 2013 to 2022 is significantly higher than the industry average, while the overall profit of companies with relatively low market capitalization such as Laobaigan and Huangtai is lower than the industry average. It can be seen that the ability of leading brands to pass through the cyclical nature of the industry and resist market risk fluctuations is significantly stronger. 
Fourth, the enlightenment for the strategic development of domestic wine enterprises
The tide rises and falls, the cycle has ups and downs, and it is impossible for the development of enterprises to avoid the cycleHowever, strengthening the ability to cross the cycle and resist the risk of cyclical fluctuations will help the enterprise to build a long-term business.
Referring to the experience of the United States and Japan, the proportion of domestic liquor as a spirit in the sales of alcohol products is expected to further increase. In 2013, China's liquor enterprises accounted for 59 percent of the sales of liquor products36%, and the sales share in 2022 will account for 6969%, referring to the experience of the United States and Japan, as China's economic growth shifts from high-speed growth to high-quality development, residents' consumption tendency will shift to high-end, high-quality, and healthy, and liquor consumption will derive more market segments.
The competitive advantage of the leading enterprise brand has been further enhanced, and the focus of operation has shifted from dealers to core C-end consumers. The transformation of the country's growth momentum makes the orientation of residents' consumption power to the liquor industry gradually ahead of the investment and business needs of enterprises, and promotes the channel power of enterprises from the B-end to the C-end. At present, based on the digital management platform, leading enterprises such as Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao have clarified the core consumer portraits and consumption scenarios, re-examined the relationship between liquor products, scenes and terminals, and further adopted cobweb-like circle marketing to carry out channel penetration and intensive cultivation. Returning to the core C-end consumers will become an important starting point for the circulation channels of liquor to be eliminated and renewed, and the dynamic sales will be improved.
The demographic dividend has turned into a popular dividend, and it is imperative to build a strong brand. The demographic dividend supporting the growth of liquor production has been weakening. In the era of the gradual awakening of the sovereignty of core C-end consumers, wine companies can only be invincible in the market competition by building a strong link between the brand and consumers, integrating the brand into the life map of consumers, and awakening the centripetal force formed by consumers to the brand. On the one hand, the operation of a strong brand is to reconstruct the previous information dissemination model, and the wine companies represented by Moutai strengthen the zero-distance interaction with consumers with the help of social **, let consumers participate in the process of brand building with the help of cross-border cooperation, topic check-in, etc., and give attention and feedback to consumers' suggestions, so as to form a good brand ecosystem of co-creation, empathy and co-construction with consumers. On the other hand, strong brands are further extending from consumers' consumption scenarios to their life scenes, relying on the core of brand spirit to occupy consumers' minds and create stronger emotional value for consumers. Only by deepening the brand culture into the brand spirit and belief that consumers accept and follow can wine companies reap the dividends of people's hearts and promote the sustainable development of the enterprise.