ASML's doomsday carnival: EUV lithography machine may be difficult to have next-generation products, and the prospect is worrying.
2023 has been a crazy year for ASML, with lithography machine sales of €27.6 billion, up 30% over the previous year, net profit of €7.8 billion, up 43% over the previous year, and gross margin of 513%。
In 2023, ASML sold 53 EUV lithography machines, 125 immersion DUV lithography machines, 32 general dry DUV lithography machines, 184 KRIF lithography machines, and 55 L-Line lithography machines, with all types of lithography machines sold more than in 2022.
And for 2024, ASML is not optimistic, saying that it expects about the same as in 2023.
In fact, 2024 is supposed to be a year of great growth for ASML, so why not even more? The reason is that ASML's EUV lithography technology has reached its limit, and it is difficult to have the next generation, and the way forward has been blocked.
Currently, ASML's biggest revenue** is actually EUV lithography machines. Take 2023 as an example, 53 EUV lithography machines, each worth about 1800 million yuan, contributing nearly 10 billion yuan, accounting for one-third.
The main EUV lithography machine currently sold is NA=033 of machines. Na is also known as numerical aperture and is also known as low Na system because of 033 is a low numerical aperture.
The lithography machine is capable of achieving a minimum metal pitch of 26 nanometers and an end-to-end approximate interconnect space spacing of 25-30 nanometers, ideally capable of fabricating 3-nanometer wafers.
na=0.55 lithography technology has a larger numerical aperture (known as the HiGT-NA system) that enables a minimum metal spacing of 16 nanometers, enabling sub-2 nanometers and even 1 nanometer process nodes.
However, the na=0 of this lithography machine55, the cost is high, reaching 3800 million yuan, compared with the previous generation of ** doubled, at the same time, ASML said that the current production capacity is still very poor, can only produce less than 10 a year, so ASML is not particularly optimistic about this, after all, the current lithography machine 033Na, which can also produce 2nm chips.
There are only 2 3nm chip factories, and all the original EUV lithography machines will not be eliminated, and now NA=0The lithography machine of 55 will definitely not sell particularly well, so it is not very optimistic about 2024, and I think it will be good if it can maintain its revenue in 2023.
In fact, the biggest problem for ASML is yet to come, because when the NA increases to 0At 55, the numerical aperture reaches its limit and cannot be further increased.
As for other directions to improve the resolution of ultraviolet lithography, such as reducing the wavelength of the light source and increasing the lithography process coefficient, they have basically reached the limit and cannot be improved in a short time.
So, last year, ASML's co-CEO in charge of the technology said that it would be difficult for ASML to make any progress in EUV lithography technology, which is NA=0EUV lithography of the 55 is likely to be the last generation and will be retired in 2024.
So, when the EUV lithography machine can no longer be upgraded, ASML finds itself there"The date of reckoning"Maybe it can be sold now, but what about the future?
Of course, there are also people who think that maybe EUV lithography technology can still move forward, but it is not clear to see the direction at present, but the lack of direction is the biggest uncertainty of the enterprise, and there is no future without certainty, what should the enterprise do?