Due to the continued downturn in the past few years, the issuance of the public offering has been cold, and the overall scale of the public offering has stagnated
*：wind
With the bull market in 2019-2020, the total size of public offerings has doubled in 3 years, and the main force of growth during this period is actively managed hybrid**.
After 2022, the growth rate of ** scale has slowed down significantly, and the scale of the whole year of 2022 has barely grown, and the total scale growth in 2023 will only be 15 trillion, and mainly in currencies and bonds. In the past two years, the overall scale of ** and mixed ** has shrunk
The only bright spot after 2022 is ETFsThe chart below shows the size and volume growth of non-monetary ETFs over the years, with the left axis being the size and the right axis being the volume
*：wind
The scale of ETFs is at a rapid pace and has not been affected by ** in the slightest. By the end of 2023, the total size of non-stock ETFs has reached 184 trillion, an increase of nearly 05 trillion, almost all of the growth comes from ** ETFs.
The 2023 ** ETF has not risen very much, with the median increase of the market-wide ** ETF being around -9%. The same is**, why are people willing to buy ETFs instead of actively managed**? A big reasonIn the past two years, active management** has generally not been able to create excess returns
In the big year of 2019-2020, the mixed index of partial stocks significantly outperformed the CSI 300, and there were many star managers, such as Zhang Kun and Ge Lan, who had a personal management scale of more than 100 billion yuan. When the price rises well, the management fee is high, and the manager's style drift and other problems are not a problem.
After 2022, the market style will switch, and the higher the previous **, the worse the decline in the past two years, and the star** will significantly underperform the index. At the beginning of 2023, TMT will be structural**, and the operation of some ** managers to cut new energy and chase high AI will make the retracement of ** go straight to 50%.
Jimin's belief in the star manager collapsed, and the market continued to be ** after all, otherwise how to get back to the cost. And soETFs have become a common choice for all parties in the market
For the people, the ETF fee is low, the position is transparent, the pure beta attribute is easy to understand, it can be purchased directly on the market, the handling fee is low, the efficiency is high, and the variety is rich: from domestic to overseas, from ** to commodities, from broad base to industry.
For ** companies and brokers, active stars really can't push it, and they have begun to change their thinking to push ETFs, and brokerages are even more happy to see this variety that can create ** sales and trading volume at the same time.
Even for the national team to save the market, ETFs have become the first choice, simple and straightforward.
In the context of falling and buying, the market has emerged Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF, a broad-based ETF with a scale of more than 100 billion, which will nearly double its share in 2023 and grow by more than 50 billion, making it a well-deserved annual gold absorber.
Referring to overseas experience, the development of the index is the inevitable way for the development of the capital market. The ETF market in the United States is about $7 trillion, while China currently has only 18 trillion yuan, about 30 times the difference.
The largest co-pioneer in the United States has more than $8 trillion under management, and its founder, John Berger, is an advocate of indexed investing. He believes that it is difficult for active management to outperform the index in the long run, and low-fee indexed investment is the way to common development.
*Isn't the big development of ETFs caused by fee reductions and indexed investments exactly what is happening in China's public market? And this trend has only just begun.
As ordinary investors, how can we embrace this change and trend? It should be noted that when choosing an ETF for investment, the pressure is all on the investor's side, and the manager cannot be blamed for poor investment performance, because at this time, **is just a tool, and the only thing the manager has to do is to track the index.
Investing in ETFs, the choice of company and manager becomes less important. For example, if you want to buy CSI 300, there is basically no difference between Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF and ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF.
In 2023, there will be a "hundred flowers blooming" in the ETF market, with all ** companies taking ETFs as the direction of strategic transformation, and ETFs tracking mainstream broad-based indices and various innovation index ETFs are emerging one after another.
But how much does this "blooming" help investors? After all, the issuance of CSI 300 index ETFs by 100 ** companies at the same time cannot solve the problems of "whether to buy CSI 300, what proportion of CSI 300 should be bought, and when to sell".
Compared with the "hundred flowers blooming" of ETF issuance, the market needs the "hundred schools of thought" of ETF investment strategies. Only with the support of sufficiently rich ETF investment strategies can ETFs truly become a powerful tool for residents' wealth allocation.
Although ETFs can be traded on the floor, don't turn it into a tool for chasing up and down a single track, which will return to the old road of "speculation". ETFs have a variety of varieties, covering domestic and foreign assets, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., and broad-based indexes, industry indices and style indices, etc., from which a large number of strategies can be derived, the key word of which is ".Configuration"And".Rotation
Broad asset allocation strategies
According to statistics, more than 80% of the income in investment comes from the allocation of large types of assets. In a bear market where equity assets are underperforming, the best thing to do is to underweight** rather than work in the wrong direction. ETFs themselves are natural tools for asset allocation.
By tracking macro factors such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, and exchange rates, and mapping these macro factors to large categories of assets, it is the principle of large categories of asset allocation strategies. For example, when economic growth is high and inflation is low, overweight equity; Allocate bonds when economic growth is low and inflation is low; Overweight commodities when inflation is high, etc.
Industry style rotation strategy
*The market can be classified according to the sector, industry, subject and style, and the following is the Exploration Research Institute divides the whole into ten major sectors, 25 primary industries, 55 theme plates and 15 style plates: Exploration Research Institute.
Due to the obvious industry and style rotation characteristics of the A** field, the industry style rotation strategy can effectively enhance the returns. On the basis of macro data, judge the prosperity according to the industry's profit growth, ROE and other indicators; Valuation based on dividend yield, historical quantile of PE PB, etc.; Determine the trend based on momentum; Crowding is judged based on turnover rate, volatility, correlation, etc. Comprehensive scoring, weekly or monthly position adjustment, and build an industry rotation model.
The real macro asset rotation strategy and industry rotation strategy independently developed by the Prospect Research Institute have been displayed on the Prospect Academy app, and you can do soExploration Academy APP-**ETF Zone-Portfolio Strategy. Each strategy shows the principle of strategy construction, income trend, position composition**, and historical rebalancing history. For example, the performance of the active asset rotation strategy is as follows:
*: Exploration Academy.
Domestic leading quantitative managers are also actively developing industry rotation and large-scale asset allocation strategies using ETFs as tools, and these managers have been deeply engaged in multi-factor quantitative stock selection for a long time and have a certain first-mover advantage in ETF strategies. At present, Yuanlan's macro asset rotation real strategy has been launched in the Exploration Academy, and in the future, there will be ETF strategies of more leading quantitative managers such as Longqi and Mingtun. Tanpu is committed to building a platform for ETF investment strategies that compete with hundreds of schools.