**Manager Xu Liming
With 26 years of experience, including more than 9 years of public offering management experience, one of the first batch of pension FOF** managers, has been deeply engaged in pension investment research for many years, and has rich portfolio management experience, excellent macro allocation ability and good financial engineering skills. At present, he serves as the manager of many pension FOFs such as Huaxia Pension 2040 and Huaxia Pension 2045.
The pension target Y share has been established for more than a year, and most of the Y share has a different degree of net value. Many people call this kind of ** "losing money", and then infinitely backwards, deriving the conclusion that "if such losses continue until retirement, there will be nothing left". So is that really the case? In order to answer this question, let's first think about the characteristics of the market and the goals we want to achieve with our investment.
First of all, we must have an objective and rational understanding of the fluctuations of the market. **The market is affected by factors such as the macroeconomic environment, investor sentiment, market valuation levels, etc., and often generates various fluctuations. The shorter the volatility, the higher the uncertainty. We can't take a small segment in the middle and extend it indefinitely, as if there is some inevitability in this fluctuation. In fact, many fluctuations are caused by accidental factors, today a wave goes down, tomorrow there will be another wave up, we can't because today's wave goes down, just say that the investment has lost money, nor can we say that the investment has made money because the wave will go up tomorrow. As long as our money doesn't leave this market for a day, this kind of volatility doesn't have much meaning. In fact, we make other investments, and there are similar places, but we don't pay attention to them.
For example, when we buy an insurance policy, I don't ask the insurance company every day how the money is used; For example, when we buy a house, we rarely see whether the house price has fallen every day, because these circumstances are not substantially related to the final result of our investment. In contrast, the public offering** publishes its net value every day for the purpose of allowing holders to clearly observe their assets, but this daily net value is not substantially related to our final investment results. The only thing that is substantially related to the results of our investment is the net value on the day of our initial subscription and the net value on the day of redemption when we need to use the money. The equity fluctuations in the middle are just a process and have nothing to do with the outcome.
Since the final result of our investment is only related to the net value of the first and last two days of investment, how can we scientifically and reasonably establish our investment goals? This requires us to be aware ofMarket volatilitywithOwn investment cycleThere is a scientific and rational plan for both aspects.
Before we make an investment decision, we need to consider the approximate term of the investment. If the investment period is long, the risk tolerance can be higher, and you can invest in some products with greater volatility, and the risk tolerance must be strictly controlled for funds with a short investment period, and you cannot invest in products with excessive volatility. You must not invest without a reasonable plan for the approximate duration of the investment, and after you start investing, you find that the market has fallen, and you are very eager to get the money back. This kind of reckless investment decision is often the root cause of unsatisfactory investment results.
When making investment planning, you must pay attention to the following things:
1. Do not extrapolate linearly. **Market volatility is highly cyclical and follows the law of mean reversion in the long run. We cannot simply extrapolate any kind of excess linearly to the maximum, not even those that are more than five years long. Many investors, in the process of the market, are bolder and bolder, thinking that they can last forever, so that they bravely buy it at the highest point of the market. And when it comes to the market cycle, the more it falls, the more afraid it becomes, thinking that the market will fall indefinitely, so that it is sold at the lowest point of the market. As a result, the investment results are not satisfactory.
So what should be a reasonable expectation?
Taking the stock-biased public ** index as an example, our market volatility cycle is about four years, and its reasonable return is about 15%. If it returns more than 20% on average annualized for three consecutive years, the probability of it entering a regression in the future increases significantly. Conversely, if it has been returning less than 5% annualized on average for three consecutive years, then the probability of its upward regression increases considerably.
*: wind, the historical trend of the index is not indicative of future performance and does not represent the performance of **product).
At the same time, we must also realize that it is difficult to draw parallels between different markets.
Taking U.S. stocks as an example, when many investors talk about investment, they must call U.S. stocks and Warren Buffett, which is very unreasonable. Because the U.S. stocks they know are likely to only be in the past 40 years or so, at most when Warren Buffett started to work in the industry, it will be about 60 years. But in fact, 60 years ago, the volatility characteristics of the U.S. market were very different from today. The current U.S. stock market, whether it is the economic structure, development model, or institutional environment, is very different from 60 years ago, and China's economic environment obviously does not have much similarity with the economic environment of the United States, on the contrary, it may be more similar to the economic environment of the United States 60 years ago. Therefore, the investment conclusions drawn from the U.S. ** market in recent years, and even the investment theories summarized, are unreliable in the Chinese market. We must have an objective and sober understanding of this. For the foreseeable next two or three decades, our market is unlikely to be as volatile as U.S. equities.
In fact, U.S. stocks are relatively special in the world, and in contrast, the Japanese market, the British market, the German market, and China's future market may be more similar, and their experience may be more significant.
Besides, Warren Buffett, as a generation of investment gurus, his success and fame, this incident itself is enough to show how rare survivorship bias is. Even if he was reborn in the current United States, it will be difficult to rewrite the legend of his life.
2. Track products and market-wide products have different fluctuation laws, and long-term investment is not the only way to solve all problems. In the current ** market, a considerable number of products are mainly invested in a certain industry or style characteristics. We call this type of racetrack. At present, there are six tracks: consumption, medicine, new energy, TMT, cyclical, and financial real estate. In the past two years, the ** anchoring the small-capitalization style and the ** anchoring the dividend style are also on the track. The volatility characteristics of these are very different from those of the market as a whole. We say that the market has long followed the law of a reciprocating spiral, which refers to the overall market, rather than a specific segment or direction.
Because in the long run, each track has its own life cycle, and no track can last forever, and no style can last forever. Therefore, long-term investment can solve most of the problems in the market, but "long-term investment" is not a panacea, we also need to analyze specific problems, and the awareness of timely profit taking must also be had.
Note: Investors must understand that the pension target date** is only part of a complete retirement plan, which includes basic pension insurance, enterprise annuity and pension investment products purchased by individuals. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the company will provide sufficient retirement income during the retirement period, and the net value of the share fluctuates with the market, even if it is close to the target date or after the target date, there is still the possibility of the net value of the share, which may lead to investment losses for investors in retirement or after retirement, please fully consider your own risk tolerance, judge the market rationally, and make investment decisions prudently. The name of "pension" does not mean income guarantee or any other form of income commitment, and the pension goal is not principal guaranteed, and losses may occur.
Risk Warning:1The name of "pension" does not mean income guarantee or any other form of income commitment, and the pension goal is not principal guaranteed, and losses may occur. Investors should fully understand the difference between regular fixed investment and lump sum deposit and withdrawal. 2.Regular investment is a simple and easy way to guide investors to make long-term investments and average investment costs. However, regular investment does not avoid the inherent risks of investment, does not guarantee that investors will obtain returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. 3.Before investing, investors should carefully read the "Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Key Facts Statement" and other legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics, and fully consider their own risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgments and make investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions, and independently assume investment risks. 4.The Manager does not guarantee a certain profit, nor does it guarantee a minimum return. Past performance and its net worth are not indicative of its future performance, and other performance managed by the Manager does not constitute a guarantee of performance. 5.The manager reminds investors of the principle of "buyer's responsibility" in investment, and after investors make investment decisions, investors are responsible for the investment risks caused by fluctuations in operating conditions, share listing transactions and changes in net value. 8.The views in this material are for reference only and do not constitute any substantive advice or commitment to investors, nor do they serve as any legal documents. **There are risks and caution should be exercised.