A few years ago, an article in Newsweek pointed out that Chinese-made computers pose a threat to the United States and suggested that they should be banned.
Highlights:
The market was worried that Lenovo was at risk of being sanctioned, and the company's stock price fell sharply.
Intel's earnings outlook guidance was lower than expected, and the market is worried that Lenovo's production will be reduced.
This article was written by Liu Zhiheng.
The ancient Greek scholar Thucydides believed that the Spartans' fear of Athens' growing power eventually led to a war between Sparta and Athens. In recent years, some American scholars have pointed out that when emerging powers threaten their existing hegemony, war or conflict is more likely to break out between the two sides, which is known as the "Thucydides trap".
Although the Sino-US dispute has not led to the outbreak of war today, the US has successively set up clever schemes to Chinese science and technology network companies to suppress China's rise at the economic and technological levels. Recently, it has been targeted by Chinese computer giantsLenovo Group***(0992.hk)。
In the past year, Hong Kong stocks**, only a few of the constituent stocks can rise against the market, Lenovo is one of the constituent stocks that has become the support of the Hang Seng Index, the stock price is like a bamboo, and it is outstanding, rising 81% in 2023, topping many blue chip stocks.
The market is optimistic about the prospects of AI PCs
As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to develop and integrate AI into personal computers (PCs), Lenovo, a leading computer company in the mainland, has high hopes for the development of its AI PC, and Lenovo seems to have lived up to expectations, showcasing more than 40 new AI devices and solutions at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) last year, including more than a dozen AI PCs.
Lenovo is sassy of muscles, and the market is bright, believing that this will be the future growth point, so it is sought after by institutional investors and shouting for it.
Even Lenovo in the first half of last yearPerformanceYear-on-year**, the market still doesn't abandon it. At the end of September last year, Lenovo's revenue in the first half of the year was 273$100 million (1960700 million yuan), down 198%, and profit attributable to shareholders increased by nearly 60% to 4% year-on-year**$2.6 billion. Lenovo explained that it was because of the backlog of smart devices during the epidemic and the need for time to digest, which affected the company's profitability for a short time. However, the Group's situation has started to improve in the second quarter, with revenue up 12% quarter-on-quarter.
Investment banks have voted with confidence in Lenovo, and the Goldman Sachs report pointed out that Lenovo's computer shipments are at a turning point and will usher in a new product cycle, giving the company a "** rating and raising the target price by 14."6% to 13HK$51. HSBC also pointed out that commercial computers will usher in a wave of replacement this year, which is believed to be a growth driver for Lenovo, maintaining a "** rating and raising the target price from 9."HK$9 to HK$11HK$4.
However, the general environment is favorable to Lenovo, endowed with the singing of investment banks, all beautiful prospects, suddenly impacted by an article, Lenovo's stock price in a single day ** nearly 10%, the market began to wake up like a dream, it turns out that Lenovo has been ignoring the potential risks before.
Political risks linger
The incident is a report of "Bloomberg Businessweek", mentioning that the previous review of Lenovo in the United States "Newsweek" is ulterior motives, "Newsweek" article quoted a survey organized by "China tech threat" (CTT), that most people are not aware of electronic espionage activities, and compared last year's balloon in Montana with the United States' ** large use of Lenovo computers, referring to computers will send data to China, will affect the security of the United States, and it is recommended that legislation prohibit its use.
When the old story was brought up, investors immediately thought that Lenovo might become the target of U.S. sanctions, and if that was the case, Lenovo would lose the North American market. Considering that North America accounts for 36% of Lenovo's revenue, without this market, the group's performance is bound to be significant**, and the valuation model previously estimated by investment banks will become worthless.
Lenovo issued a statement after the BusinessWeek article was published, saying it was "shocked" by the "disinformation campaign" exposed in the article. "Any suggestion that Lenovo is controlled by China**, or that its relationship with China compromises cybersecurity, is false," Lenovo said. ”
Woe is not a single line, when the article is widely noticed,Intel(intc.US) also reported first-quarter sales** of $12.7 billion, higher than the same period last year but below analysts' expectations. Investors speculate whether the PC market will be sluggish, which will affect Intel's sales, and Lenovo, as a leading computer manufacturer, will naturally bear the brunt of the drag.
In fact, Lenovo Chairman Yang Yuanqing had ** the company's shares, between November 28 and December 1 last year, at an average of 965 to 9HK$79, sold 32 million shares in the market, and cashed out 3HK$100 million. William O, an independent non-executive director of the previous company, also traded at an average price of 8. per share in OctoberSold about 420,000 shares at HK$59 and cashed out HK$3.61 million.
A conspiracy of business rivals?
For Lenovo's prospects in AI PC, we don't dare to judge for the time being, but the reality is that the United States has always targeted Chinese technology companies, even if it does not attack today, it is difficult to guarantee whether it will be to relevant companies in the future, especially Lenovo, a leading technology company in the mainland, is the object of the United States** to suppress, there is really a considerable political risk.
Newsweek's targeted report, which cited CTT's investigation, it turns out that CTT has been describing Lenovo's computers as China's best tools as an entry point for cyber espionage. "Bloomberg Businessweek" quoted sources as pointing out that the main financier behind CTT is Lenovo's main competitorDell(dell.us)。
CTT emerged as an independent organization, but it was actually a project of DCI Group, a public affairs and consulting firm whose clients included Dell and Micron.
Although some people believe that if Dell is behind it, it is all a business conspiracy and does not pose a political threat, at least it is not the attitude of the United States. However, even if it is manipulated by business opponents behind the scenes, it may also affect the orientation of the United States**, and in fact, there are opinions on Lenovo from time to time in both parties in the United States, which have also attracted special attention from various departments.
Therefore, Lenovo's political risk will always exist in the future, but everyone seems to have ignored this matter before, and now the article of "News Weekly" makes investors take the lead, you will understand what fundamental analysis is not necessarily the most important, after all, it will cause serious harm to a company, and before investing in Lenovo in the future, you must seriously consider this potential risk.
This article has been updated to reflect the publication chronology of the two articles cited by BusinessWeek and Newsweek, and to add Lenovo's statement.