**: Global Market Broadcast.
U.S. CPI rose 3% year-on-year in January1% and an expected growth of 29%。The US CPI rose 03% with an expected growth of 02%。
The U.S. non-seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in January was 39% and expected 37%, the previous value was 390%；The US core CPI in January was 04% and 0 expected30%, the previous value was 030%。
U.S. non-seasonally adjusted food inflation in January was 26%, the previous value was 27%；Unseasonally adjusted energy inflation at an annual rate of -46%, the previous value was 2The annual rate of non-seasonally adjusted housing inflation was 6%, compared with 62%；Unseasonally adjusted used car and truck inflation -35%, the previous value was -13%。
Institutional Perspectives:
Analyst IRA JERSEY: The first reaction is that the market is pricing in no more than a 50% chance of a rate cut in May, as both headline and core CPI have exceeded expectations. The flattening of the bear market is not surprising, and we still believe that the 2-year 10-year Treasury yield curve is likely to remain inverted until the Fed actually starts cutting rates.
Analyst Cameron Crise said that the March rate cut could be more firmly excluded from the negotiations, and since you did, maybe May could be removed as well. January's U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations on both an overall and core basis. To add insult to injury, the overall figure is not even lower than 3% year-on-year, but 31%。Obviously,This is to make the Fed hawks spread their wings againAnd ** may return to the nest, at least in the short term. No single data can be decisive, but after the Fed's recent communications and strong employment data, it's clear that there is no urgent need to cut rates sooner rather than later, and if anything, the focus on persistent inflation risks remains paramount.
Analyst Katia Dmitrieva: Inflation seems to be stronger considering the super-core**. This is the category that the Fed is closely watching and stands for core services**minus housing**, on top of which CPI accelerated again to 43%, the fastest growth rate since May last year. The monthly growth rate has also increased, **085%, which is the hottest since April 2022.
Instant market reactions:
The S&P 500 fell by 08%。The U.S. dollar index** rose 50 points to a high of 10449。
Swap markets are pricing in less than 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2024; The swap market is fully pricing in a delay in the Fed's rate cut from June to July. Traders postponed the Bank of England's first 25 basis point rate cut from August to September.
Money markets lowered their expectations for the size of the ECB's rate cut in 2024 to 110 basis points from 120 basis points before the US CPI announcement.
U.S. 2- to 5-year Treasury yields are at least 15 basis points on the day**; Eurozone yields rose, with German 2-year yields rising 63 basis points, the latest 276.7%。Italy's 2-year government bond yield** 8 basis points, the latest at 3424%。Italian 10-year government bond yield**56 basis points, the latest is 3972%。
Spot *** fell more than $10 to as low as $2018 an ounce; Spot ** fell by 100%, now reported at 22$44 oz.
The DXY** dollar index extended its gain to more than 60 points, or 050%, now 10466。USDCAD touched 135, up 036%。Spot** fell by nearly $18 to as low as 2013$3 oz.
Non-US currency pairs fell, and USD/JPY hit 150 on the upside, up 044%。EURUSD** fell 70 pips, and GBPUSD fell below 126, down 023%。