**: Market information.
The US CPI failed to return to the "2 era" in January, and traders bet that the Fed's rate cut would be delayed until July, ** plunged more than $20
The U.S. Labor Department reported on Tuesday that CPI exceeded expectations in January and failed to return to the "2 era" as high housing** weighed on consumers.
The U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate recorded 31%, higher than expected 29%, compared with the previous value of 340% has decreased; The monthly rate was recorded at 03%, higher than the expected 020%, compared to the previous value of 030% flat. The U.S. non-seasonally adjusted core CPI recorded an annual rate of 39%, more than expected by 37%, compared to the previous value of 390% flat; The monthly rate was recorded at 04%, the largest increase since May last year, beating expectations of 030% and the previous value of 030%。
After the release of the data, the U.S. dollar index** extended its gains to more than 60 points, with an intraday increase of 050%；Spot*** fell more than $20 to below $2,010 an ounce for the first time since Jan. 25. U.S. 2- to 5-year Treasury yields are at least 15 basis points on the day. Non-US currencies generally fell. The S&P 500 fell by 08%, compared to 03%。
COMEX's most active *** contract traded 5,692 lots in one minute from 21:30 to 21:31 Beijing time on February 13, with a total contract value of 11$5.9 billion.The most active *** contract of COMEX is 21:47--21:48 Beijing time on February 13, and 4,881 lots are traded in an instant within one minute, with a total contract value of 9$8.6 billion.
U.S. short-term interest rates** traders after strong inflation dataBets that the Fed will not cut interest rates until June。Swap markets are pricing in less than 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2024, andFully priced in a Fed rate cut postponed from June to July。According to the US CPI data, the overall CPI in the United States is still at the "3 head", which raises questions about whether the Fed can cut interest rates in May.
The agency notedHousing rents are once again one of the factors triggering inflation；The housing inflation index followed the December month-on-month increase of **0After 4%, January was 06%。U.S. CPI growth in January beat expectations, underscoring a bumpy road to fighting inflation.
However, economists point out thatThe rise in inflation is likely to be temporary, which may not change expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in the first half of this year. Previously, the Bureau of Labor Statistics removed seasonal fluctuations from the data model. When calculating the CPI data for January, a new weight was applied, i.e., the share of housing increased, and the share of new and used cars decreased. This may go some way to explaining why the data was stronger than expected.
Analyst Cameron Crise saidThe March rate cut could be more firmly excluded from the negotiations, since you didMaybe May could also be removed。January's U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations on both an overall and core basis. To add insult to injury, the overall figure is not even lower than 3% year-on-year, but 31%。Obviously, this is for the Fed hawks to spread their wings again, and ** may return to the nest, at least in the short term. No single data can be decisive, but after the Fed's recent communications and strong employment data, it's clear that there is no urgent need to cut rates sooner rather than later, and if anything, the focus on persistent inflation risks remains paramount.