At the beginning of the Year of the Dragon, the A** field ushered in an exciting start. More than 4,200 **, as well as more than 200** daily limit, injected a shot in the arm for the market. The breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index of 2,900 points is even more eye-catching. Although the market has doubts about the sustainability of this rally, believing that it may only be a short-term catch-up, the author believes that the bottom of the A** field has been substantially confirmed.
This judgment is not groundless, but supported by solid data. First of all, the consumption data during the Chinese New Year period far exceeded expectations, and the recovery of the tourism sector was particularly significant. According to statistics from the tourism department, the number of domestic tourists during the Spring Festival holiday increased by 34 percent year-on-year3%, an increase of 190%；Total tourism consumption increased by 47 percent year-on-year3%, an increase of 7. compared to the same period in 20197%。This data not only shows the vitality of the consumer market, but also indicates the strong momentum of economic recovery.
The box office market is also showing strong growth. During the Spring Festival, the national movie box office reached 801.6 billion yuan, and the number of moviegoers was 16.3 billion, an increase of 18 percent year-on-year in 202347% and 2636%。This achievement not only reflects the vigorous cultural consumption, but also a strong proof of the recovery of the consumer market.
The performance of the liquor market is also impressive. During the Spring Festival, the performance of liquor merchants in many places has achieved a growth of more than 20%, and the mid-to-high-end liquor market is experiencing a significant recovery. This change not only boosted market confidence, but also painted an optimistic outlook for the future development of the liquor industry.
In terms of financial data, the scale of social financing (social finance) also exceeded expectations. M1 increased by 59%, an increase of 4 from the previous month6 percentage points, this growth reversed the trend of continuous decline. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 is also narrowing, indicating that the positive effects of monetary policy are gradually emerging.
Although the decline in the real estate market data in January brought a certain amount of panic to the market, the improvement in consumption data during the Spring Festival brought new hope to the market. This is not only optimism about short-term economic data, but also anticipation of China's economic transformation. The shift from an investment-driven economy to a consumption-driven economy means that fiscal policy will focus more on the welfare of residents, urban investment companies will focus on infrastructure maintenance, state-owned enterprises will give back to society through dividends, developers will focus more on cash flow management, and residents will invest more in leisure consumption and tourism.
In the context of historically low valuations and active entry of funds, the bottom of the market has been formed. The next market movement will depend on whether the economic data can continue to improve after the Chinese New Year. If the economic data continues to improve, the bottom of the market will be more stable, and it is expected to come out of a round***Conversely, if the economic data repeats, the market may be at the bottom.
At this juncture, investors should remain optimistic and increase investment while the market has not fully recovered. Even if the market misjudges, the space is limited, and once the market reverses, the speed is often fast and difficult to catch. Investors can consider the following investment directions:
1.Hong Kong ** market: At present, the valuation is low, the risk is small, and it is suitable for gradual layout.
2.Dividends**: Especially the high dividends** of the Hong Kong market, the dividend yield can reach 10%, which has a high cost performance.
3.AI: While there may be short-term hype, there may be short-term gains.
With the gradual improvement of economic data, the next round of market** may be quietly opening. At this hopeful moment, investors should seize the opportunity and actively plan to welcome the possible market spring.