1. During the Spring Festival holiday and the A-share market closure, the world's main **common**, especially in Europe, Asia-Pacific and other capital markets. Among them, between February 10 and 17, 2024, the Nikkei 225 index rose by up to 431%, followed by the Hang Seng Index at 377%。
Judging from the performance of the Hong Kong market, the market opened for 3 consecutive days after the holiday, and accelerated its rise on February 16. This has a certain incentive effect on the A** field, and is expected to stimulate the A** field and usher in a good start to the Year of the Dragon.
In this way, the probability will also be the direction of multi-party analysis and research in the market, but as far as the analysis methodology of Lianghua is concerned, the key to the post-holiday investment transaction is still the follow-up development and relay situation, which will be the focus of the decision-making arrangement after the year.
Whether it is the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index or the CSI 300 Index, it is still difficult for us to give a relatively strong judgment on the upward momentum based on the objective technical structure and trend development relationship. It can be pulsed, but ups and downs should be unavoidable.
As far as the technical conditions of the CSI 300 index are concerned, it still takes more than 2 weeks to reconcile the movement of the 60-day cycle, and before that, it is not easy to change its downward trend. Even if it pushes upwards at the beginning of the year, it should be blocked by the 120-day average price line, and this will induce **.
The underlying idea of this technical relationship is still reflected in the current more significant bearish contradictions, and even if it rises for several days before the Spring Festival, it cannot immediately smooth out the short- and medium-term technical arrangement, and it will take some time to achieve an orderly bullish arrangement.
In this way, this will lead to market turmoil. However, after the strong performance before the holiday, the investor sentiment has been greatly eased, and even the attitude of investors has changed to a certain extent, which is undoubtedly beneficial to the start after the holiday, and is also expected to continue to improve the technical structure.
And judging from the current political news during the holiday period and the best guidance on the capital market, they are also biased towards a positive and moderate situation. In particular, the multi-party statements of the capital market have given a boost to investor confidence, guide long-term funds to enter the market, improve shareholder returns, strengthen supervision and severely punish fraud, plug loopholes and establish new regulations, and standardize IPOs, refinancing and other aspects.
However, I personally feel that there are not many new ideas, in order to truly rebuild investor confidence and restore the vitality of development, it is indeed necessary to continue to improve and optimize the ecosystem, not just by buying a large number of ETFs before the holiday, which can only quench the thirst for a while, and the fundamental problem is still backlogged.
For example, IPO with disease or issuance, financial fraud of listed companies, incomplete and untimely information disclosure, imperfect exit mechanism, light punishment, etc., all need to really play a role in suppression, rather than scratching the itch. Otherwise, it is still "the weeds are inexhaustible, and the spring breeze blows and grows".
2. In addition, at the economic level, the tourism consumption data during the Spring Festival holiday is relatively eye-catching, which gives more than 2019 bookings for travel, transportation, scenic spots, etc. on multiple platforms, as well as the consumption of cinema cultural scenes, which can be regarded as a relatively good data presentation.
This situation has also been reflected in the relevant Hong Kong market in the past few days. However, as far as Lianghua's personal understanding is concerned, it still has not changed the phenomenon that the number of trips has increased in the past few years, but the consumption amount has decreased, which is still a significant feature of the decline in per capita consumption data.
On the twenty-ninth day of the Spring Festival, I went to visit the Tianhe Flower Market in Guangzhou, I don't know if it was because of the light rain in the world, I felt that ** was much less than in previous years, and the Tianhe Flower Market was crowded every year before the epidemic. Later, the places around Guangzhou, as well as the understanding of some villages and towns, the overall feeling is not much different from last year.
This is a feeling that is slightly different from the statistics. Maybe it's because it's not in those popular areas, so the perception is different. But if what we hear and see is only those top-notch parts, and most of them are averaged and not as good as before, what impact such data will have on the future or sustainable development, perhaps it is a problem that needs to be considered in the subsequent development.
3, there are some situations, Liang Yan believes that the follow-up development needs to continue to pay attention to, such as about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, from the latest Federal Reserve's statement, give interest rate cut expectations, and even lower the target of 100bp within the year, but the time of the first interest rate cut is postponed, this hawkish tone will also appear often in the follow-up, and it will also continue to disturb the rhythm of market changes before the ** out of the trend advantage.
As for the Russia-Ukraine issue and the development of the war in the Middle East, although they have been gradually downplayed, no one can fail to consider the situation on the peninsula and the Taiwan Strait issue. This is undoubtedly an erratic impact factor for the market development in 2024.
4. In general, the first market in the Year of the Dragon is about to open, the basic information during the holiday is not alarmed, relatively peaceful, and the peripheral market has risen a piece, which is conducive to the momentum of the A-share relay before the holiday, and is expected to promote the A** field to usher in a good start to the Year of the Dragon. However, neither the technical relationship nor the dynamic situation supports a sustained relay attack, and based on our technical analysis methodology, it is inevitable.
In terms of strategy, you can maintain an optimistic and positive attitude, but do not blindly chase up and chase high, and take the initiative to adjust the position structure. For the index, we maintain the upward development path of "low point is raised, high point is not high", and we continue to favor high-quality blue chips with low valuation and high dividends, as well as investment opportunities with technology growth, and actively avoid the industry going downhill, the main business of enterprises is unknown, and the marginalized garbage category.
The Year of the Dragon** is about to open for trading, I wish you all a smooth investment, a chance to win, and good luck in the Year of the Dragon.
Specific to the selection and operation of the first class, we must always understand that we should not be in the company of falling stocks, do not take junk stocks, do not play with themes, do not play with concepts, do not listen to news, do not fantasize, and follow the principle of "weekly line-based, only quantity is asking, four conditions, trend is king, eliminating the weak and keeping the strong, and returning to zero every day" to examine and actively respond to the changes and development of the market.
*There are risks and investment should be cautious.