In fact, what kind of road technique is wheat now, everyone's hearts are like mirrors, butSuffering from a helplessness.
Obviously the demand is weak, but the price of wheat is still rising;
Obviously, the reserve auction ** has fallen again and again, and the wheat ** has risen again and again;
In fact, such a "routine" is not once or twice, it has been staged many times before.
Is it because you haven't seen it yet?
I don't think so, everyone has been in the grain market for so many years, especially in the past two years, the grain market has been stormy, and the wind and rain experienced are not a little bit, this little trick will not be understood, but there is no way.
First, wheat and corn are different.
Although corn has also fallen sharply recently, according to the overall analysis,The supply and demand of corn are still in a tight balance, which means that there will be many phases, which is also an opportunity for corn.
ButThe supply and demand of wheat are dog bite the ass - for sure, there is nothing to dispute.
Therefore, the supply and demand of wheat are placed there, and the main body is in a weak state, and the cards in the hand are not hard, so the confidence cannot be raised, and there is no confidence to call the demand side.
Second, in terms of the overall trend, wheat is also a downward trend.
It's the same with corn.
Don't look at the previous two years, wheat rose like a rainbow, it is also a special product under a special background. And there are two main drivers:
One is that after the sharp rise in corn, a large number of wheat has entered the feed substitution, driving the rapid growth of wheat demand.
This has been very obvious in the past two years, corn and pig prices have actually been unbalanced in the past two years, to put it bluntly, the supply and demand match is a bit misaligned.
Although the pig production capacity is at a high level, the pig price has been grinding to the bottom, and the farmers are in a state of loss most of the time, so the pressure on feed companies is also very highIn order to reduce costs, it is necessary to look for more cost-effective alternatives.
So wheat became the first choice.
And it is in this context that wheat ** began to rise rapidly.
The other is the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine mainly affects the international wheat **, butAs soon as the conflict broke out, countries around the world also realized another thing, that is, food must be kept and stockpiled.
Therefore, countries began to hoard grain one after another, and those who had grain gave priority to ensuring their own countries' first, reducing exports, while those who lacked grain tried every means to increase imports.
Although Russia's wheat production has increased and bumper harvests, and it has continued to reduce prices and want to export quickly, it has been suppressed by the United States and the West, and the market has been bumpy.
In this context, China has also begun to step up the layout of wheat, so wheat has been pushed to an unprecedented height.
ButSince last year, both backgrounds have changed.
First of all, corn has fallen, and it has fallen sharplyIt not only ended the upside down situation with wheat, but also quickly opened the price gap with wheat, and directly closed the door for wheat to enter the feed substitution in large quantities again.
Second, although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing, the market has basically digested the impact of the conflict, and all countries have recovered one after another.
WhileChina also took advantage of the low international wheat price to start a dip**, last year China's wheat imports for the first time exceeded the level of 10 million tons.
These pressures have been put on the domestic wheat market, coupled with the initial recovery of the domestic economy, consumption is still weak, and the gap between supply and demand of wheat has widened.
Third, wheat exports are limited.
Since wheat was kicked out of the substitution, it has basically returned to the need for rations, thusThe wheat market situation has returned to the state of the game between the main body of grain holding and the flour enterprises.
As mentioned earlier, in this state, the ** party is not confident enough,Wheat is still a buyer's market, so volatility is all about buyer demand and sentiment.
If there is a demand, the price will be raised, and if there is no demand, the price will be loweredAlthough the main body of grain holding can also understand it very well, but there is only one export of wheat left, what can be done if it is not helped?
Drag it out until after the year? No one dares to say what will happen after the year, and there may still be a certain market for high-quality wheat, but there is almost no choice for wheat of average quality, so it can only be forced to produce grain.
So the current state was formedEveryone knows that the price increase of flour enterprises is not really short of grain, and it is almost clear that the cards are playing, but many grain holders do not have big cards in their hands, and they can't hold it down, and they can only cooperate with acting, so this card is really uncomfortable.
What to do? It's hard to say.
Years ago, such a "routine" will not be only once, but also has to be repeated many times, and after the year, high-quality wheat may still have a chance, and the average quality of wheat can only be seized and sold in the seams.
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