The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce that the loan market ** interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is:The 1-year LPR is 345%, unchanged from the previous period, and LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years was 395%, down 25 basis points from the previous period. This is also the first time in 6 months that the LPR** has been lowered, and it has set a record for the largest reduction since the LPR reform.
It is not difficult to see that the LPR policy adjustment is not a conventional symmetrical adjustment, but an asymmetric adjustment, with the one-year LPR unchanged and the five-year or more downward adjustment, and the reduction is very large, and the purpose is very clearIt is necessary to maintain the relative stability of monetary policyin order to better respond to the external environment, especially the needs of the Fed's policy changes, and leave more room for monetary policy adjustment and optimization; On the other hand, taking into account the fact that the current enterprise investment and housing consumption are not very prosperous, especially the actual situation that the confidence of private investment is not very sufficientLowering the LPR for more than five years can play a positive role in boosting investment and consumer confidence。At the same time, it can also reduce the replacement cost of local ** mature debts, reduce the local ** debt burden, and ease the pressure of local debt repayment.
It is worth noting that at the same time as the LPR** for more than 5 years was lowered, the "Interim Measures for the Management of Special Budgetary Investment in Private Investment Guidance (Draft for Comments)" drafted by the Private Economic Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission also began to solicit public opinions. The purpose of introducing this method is also very clear, that is, to give full play to the role of first-class investment funds to further encourage, support and guide the development of private investment. If the two can be organically combined, it will be able to effectively promote private investment.
Affected by major changes in the external economic environment and the severe impact of the three-year epidemic, economic growth and enterprise operation have encountered great challengesThe lack of market demand has caused the low efficiency of enterprises, sluggish private investment, and the sluggish real estate market, which have seriously affected economic growth and residents' employmentThere is an urgent need to boost investment and consumer confidence through the role of policies. Lowering bank lending rates is undoubtedly one of the most important means.
And judging from the current actual situation,If a single means of cutting interest rates is adopted, it is desirable and applicable simply to promote investment and consumption. However, it should also be noted that the Federal Reserve may introduce an interest rate cut policy at any time, which will have an impact on the flow of international funds. If there is no policy space, it will be more passive after the Fed introduces a policy of cutting interest rates. Therefore, the adoption of asymmetric policy adjustment measures, keeping the one-year LPR unchanged and lowering the LPR** for more than five years, can not only meet the needs of enterprise investment and household consumption, but also leave enough room for policy adjustment.
The next problem that needs to be solved is how to guide enterprises and residents to make good use of policy opportunities and increase investment and consumption. From the perspective of policy, the signal released has been very strong, whether it can be transformed into the driving force and energy of development, but also depends on the recognition and acceptance of the policy by enterprises and residentsLet's see how the local government can stimulate the investment and consumption confidence of enterprises and residents through policies.
From the perspective of consumption, there may not be much need to mobilize, and the local government will definitely cooperate with the policy, do a good job in various publicity and promotion work, and may introduce corresponding supporting policies to encourage the majority of residents to buy houses. Because,On the issue of how to boost the real estate market, the local government does not need to mobilize, and the internal motivation is also very strong. Since the adjustment of the real estate market policy, it is not difficult to see that the local government has really done its best, and it is also incumbent on them to do their best. Now, the LPR** for more than 5 years has been lowered again, and the local government will of course seize this opportunity to actively guide residents to buy houses and give full play to the role of the new interest rate policy on housing consumption.
The key is that whether the LPR reduction of more than 5 years can play a role in enterprise investment, how much of a role it can play, and within what scope it needs to be taken seriously and studied by the local government. Because, on the issue of investment, the local government attaches the most importance to real estate investment and urban construction investment, and does not pay much attention to enterprise investment. From the point of view of the relationship between the normative ** and the enterprise, this makes sense. But,Many places ignore a problem, that is, the serious sluggishness of enterprise investment, especially private investment, is closely related to the poor investment environment created by the company. Without a good business environment and investment environment, how can enterprises invest, and how dare they invest. Naturally, the investment environment has become the most important aspect of whether investment can be boosted.
The policy level is already optimal, but the environmental level is still problematic. For example, environmental protection, safety, land, planning and other restrictive conditions, what standards are placed in the end, how to deal with possible violations, and how to help enterprises coordinate contradictionsHow the relevant parties determine the relationship of affinity and affection may restrict enterprise investment and affect their enthusiasm for investment. Therefore, it is necessary for the local government to grasp the scale, neither to have problems, nor to oversupervise, to avoid the opposite effect and effect. On the way home is the New Year