On the first day of the Lunar New Year this year, eight movies were released, including Jia Ling's "Hot and Hot", Han Han's "Flying Life 2", Zhang Yimou's "Article 20", Ning Hao's "Mr. Red Carpet", Han Yan's "Let's Shake the Sun Together", and the cartoons "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", "Bajie: The Nether of the Canopy", and "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat".
Coupled with the Hong Kong-style suspense action film "Breaking the War" (directed by Peng Fa, starring Wu Zhenyu and Ren Dahua) released on the seventh day of the first month, there are a total of nine new films in the Spring Festival file, which exceeds the number of last year.
Last year's Spring Festival stalls, driven by movies such as "Man Jianghong" and "The Wandering Earth 2", had a seven-day box office of nearly 6.8 billion yuan, second only to the 7.8 billion yuan in the 2021 Spring Festival stalls released by films such as "Detective Chinatown 3" and "Hello, Li Huanying", which is the second highest in film history.
This year there are more films, the holidays are longer, and if the overall word-of-mouth is good enough, it is also possible that the box office will hit an all-time high.
However, compared with the Spring Festival files in previous years, this year there are no IP productions with a successful foundation like "Detective Chinatown 3", "Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake" and "The Wandering Earth 2", all of which are small and broad, and five of the six head movies are comedies or have comedy elements, and the concentration of genres is very high, which also adds uncertainty to this year's Spring Festival files.
"Hot and Hot" and "Flying Life 2" compete for the first place?
According to the experience of previous years, in the competition of the Spring Festival file, there are usually one or two popular movies that win, "Detective Chinatown 3" and "Hello, Li Huanying" in the Spring Festival file in 2021 accounted for 80% of the box office, "Man Jianghong" and "The Wandering Earth 2" in 2023 accounted for 71% of the box office, and in 2022, "Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake" is the dominant movie, accounting for 42% of the box office.
Among the several popular movies on the first day of the Lunar New Year this year, judging from the current data, Jia Ling's "Hot and Hot" and Han Han's "Flying Life 2" are competing for the first place, Zhang Yimou's "Article 20" and the animation sequel "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" are in the second echelon, and Ning Hao's "Mr. Red Carpet" and Han Yan's "Let's Shake the Sun Together" are relatively low in popularity and rank in the third echelon.
On the ticketing platform Maoyan, the number of people who want to watch "Flying Life 2" has accumulated to 7040,000, far higher than the 51 of "Hot and Hot".90,000, the number of new people who want to watch "Flying Life 2" is also far ahead, so looking at it, "Hot and Hot" does not seem to exceed the possibility of "Flying Life 2".
Taobao tickets on the ticketing platform, the number of people who want to watch "Hot and Hot" has accumulated to 4290,000, far higher than the 30 of "Flying Life 2".70,000, the number of new people who want to watch "Hot and Hot" is also far ahead, so looking at it, "Flying Life 2" does not seem to have the possibility of surpassing "Hot and Hot".
Flying Life 2" is controlled by Han Han's Tingdong Film Owner, and Taopiaopiao and Maoyan are the second and third producers respectively, but the main controlling distributor of this film is Maoyan, and Taopiaopiao is only one of the co-distributors.
Hot and Hot is produced by Xinli Media, the parent company of Taopiaopiao, Alibaba Pictures, is the third largest producer, and Maoyan is one of the co-producers in the ninth place.
Interestingly, "Flying Life 2" released by Maoyan is far ahead of the popularity of the Maoyan platform, and "Hot and Hot" released by the main control of Taopiao is far ahead of the popularity of the Taopiao platform, and behind the Spring Festival movie competition is also the dark war of the distribution platform.
"Bear Infested" is the most stable, and "Article 20" guarantees the top four?
The most stable expected in the second echelon is "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", and the most difficult is Zhang Yimou's "Article 20".
The "Bear Infested" series of animations suitable for the whole family to watch movies together appears in the Spring Festival stalls every year, and the box office has repeatedly reached new highs, and the box office of the last "Bear Infested, Stay with Me "Bear Core" reached 1.5 billion yuan, beating "No Name" and "Deep Sea" in the Spring Festival in 2023, second only to "Man Jianghong" and "The Wandering Earth 2", ranking third.
Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space is very popular, and the number of people who want to see it in Maoyan has accumulated 6310,000, second only to "Flying Life 2", ranking second. The number of people who want to see Taopiao tickets has accumulated 3420,000, second only to "Hot and Hot", also ranked second.
However, judging from the number of new people who want to watch it in recent days, "Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space" is not as good as "Hot and Hot" and "Flying Life 2" on the two major platforms of Maoyan and Taopiao, and is competing with "Article 20" for third.
"Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space" is produced by Huaqiang Fangte, Maoyan is the fourth largest producer, and Taopiaopiao is one of the co-producers ranked ninth. This film is distributed by China Film, Lianrui, and Huaqiang Fangte, and Taopiaopiao is the co-distributor.
Zhang Yimou's "Article 20" was produced and distributed by the main control of the light, and the light eats "alone".
Because of the continuous success of Zhang Yimou's previous films "Man Jianghong", "Solid as a Rock", "On the Cliff" and "Sniper", "Article 20" is naturally highly anticipated.
Zhang Yimou revealed that this movie tells the story of the people themselves, which is related to thousands of households, and it is the most laughing in the movie he made, which sounds very suitable for the viewing needs of the Spring Festival file.
The cumulative number of people who want to watch the two major platforms of Maoyan and Taopiaopiao shows that "Article 20" is far inferior to "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2", and "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", ranking only fourth.
However, the latest daily increase in the number of people who want to watch shows that in Maoyan (controlled by Guangguang), the number of new people who want to watch "Article 20" has surpassed "Hot and Hot", second only to "Flying Life 2".
In Taopiao, the number of new daily people who want to watch "Article 20" is far less than that of "Hot and Hot" and "Flying Life 2", which is close to "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", ranking fourth.
Judging from the current trend, Article 20 is competing for the third in the fourth place. However, the final box office depends on word of mouth.
"Let's Shake the Sun Together" is a dark horse, and "Mr. Red Carpet" is going to be at the bottom?
Among the live-action movies, Huanxi Media and Ning Hao's Bad Monkey Movie is controlled and produced, and the comedy "Mr. Red Carpet" cooperated by Ning Hao and Andy Lau is the earliest, but the popularity is not high.
The cumulative number of people who want to watch "Mr. Red Carpet" in Maoyan and Taopiao is far inferior to the above four popular movies, and it is chased by "Let's Shake the Sun Together", and the recent number of new daily people who want to watch it has been surpassed by "Let's Shake the Sun Together", and there is a trend of being at the bottom.
Mr. Red Carpet is different from Ning Hao's early "Crazy" series, it does not take the absurd route, the main focus is satire, and the actors, directors, investors, and short ** platforms in the film industry are opened, showing the various beings in the entertainment industry.
This film has been screened at the Toronto International Film Festival, the Busan International Film Festival, and the Pingyao International Film Festival in China, which was first scheduled to be released in mid to late November, but was withdrawn on the interim basis and changed to the Spring Festival file.
Let's Shake the Sun Together", a feature film directed by Han Yan and starring Peng Yuchang and Li Gengxi, is scheduled for the Spring Festival, which obviously wants to be a dark horse, and it also shows the filmmaker's confidence in the movie.
This film is produced and distributed by Lianrui, who has produced popular movies with small and broad realistic themes such as "Send You a Little Red Flower", "My Sister", "Life Events", etc., and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is a continuation of this successful strategy.
Director Han Yan has directed "The First Time" and "Get Out!" "Tumor Jun", "Animal World", "Send You a Little Red Flower", "I Love You!" , good at life and emotional expression.
Let's Shake the Sun Together and Get Out! "Tumor Jun" and "Send You a Little Red Flower" are known as the "Trilogy of Life". It tells the story of two seriously ill young people who accidentally embark on a ** journey full of love and strength.
This film is scheduled late, and the competitiveness is not strong from various data, compared with the number of people who want to watch it recently, it just exceeds "Mr. Red Carpet", and there is still a big gap with the other four popular movies.
The battle for film scheduling: Can the audience make their own choice?
In the end, there are many influencing factors on the performance of each movie, such as marketing publicity, pre-sale, film scheduling, and word of mouth, before the release of the movie and just three days before the release, marketing publicity, pre-sale, and film scheduling play a major role, and then, with the release of word of mouth, the attendance rate will affect the film schedule and box office trend, and stage a counterattack and decline.
For example, during the Spring Festival last year, Tony Leung and Wang Yibo's "No Name" was very popular, and it started the most fiercely, but it opened high and went low, and was soon surpassed by "Bear Infested, Stay with Me "Bear Core", and finally only sold 93.1 billion yuan.
The championship battle between "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Man Jianghong" is very fierce, "Man Jianghong" obviously has an advantage in the third and fourth tier cities at the beginning, and "The Wandering Earth 2" relies on the film scheduling layout in the first and second tier cities to achieve a counterattack in the later stage, narrowing the gap between the total box office.
The battle for the film schedule of this year's Spring Festival file is inevitable.
A few days ago, the survey data of the audience preference for Spring Festival films conducted by the Lighthouse Research Institute showed that 30 people preferred "Hot and Hot".4%, and 25 of them preferred "Flying Life 2".4 per cent, and 15 were preferred to Article 205%, and 13 are the first choice for "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space".7%, and 10 preferred "Mr. Red Carpet".9%, and 2 of them prefer "Let's Shake the Sun Together".6%。
In addition, the Lighthouse Research Institute used a questionnaire to conduct a survey of the pre-rehearsal films of 150 theater managers, and the results were consistent with the results of the audience's preferred survey, "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2" and "Article 20" ranked the top three above "Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space", and "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" were lower than "Bear Infested: Reversal of Time and Space", ranking low.
Before the Spring Festival file is about to open pre-sale, it is rumored on the Internet that "Flying Life 2", "Hot and Hot", "Article 20", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", "Let's Shake the Sun Together" will adopt a strategy of separate distribution, "Flying Life 2", "Hot and Hot" and "Article 20" require theaters to be at the beginning.
The first and second years of junior high school need to ensure a film scheduling rate of about 22%, "Bear Infested" requires 12%, and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" requires 10%.
The producers of "Mr. Red Carpet", which did not participate in the sub-release, released a set of posters that read, "Let the audience choose for themselves? ok！", seems to hint at the Spring Festival file scheduling war.
After a few days of ** fermentation, the situation has changed again, and the relevant associations have convened a symposium with major film parties, canceled the sub-line distribution, and the pre-sale will be opened normally as in previous years.
No matter what explicit or covert means are used, the Spring Festival stall scramble war has never stopped, and complete fairness does not exist, because it is related to the huge interests of the real people.
However, the good trend is that as the audience becomes more rational, the market's deviation correction function becomes more efficient, even if a movie has a good start, but if the reputation is average, it will be hot for two or three days, and the movie with a good reputation was treated coldly at the beginning, and the counterattack is also very fast, and the audience can't decide the initial schedule, but it can determine the long-term trend. With free choice, a good movie doesn't have to worry about being killed by mistake.