**: Hangzhou Station of Phoenix Real Estate.
This article is **since the little prince of *** real estate, the author Cheng Li, Phoenix Net Real Estate has been authorized).
On January 24, the central bank announcedThe reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, effective from February 5, 2024
At the same time,Since January 25, the interest rates on relending to agriculture, relending to small and medium-sized enterprises, and rediscounting have been lowered by 025%
Just over 20 days after 2024, the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, and it is self-evident that it cares for the market.
* I also gave feedback immediately, and I walked out of the long white line for three consecutive days. Stimulated by the positive overshoot**, especially in many sectors such as banks, brokerages and real estate, which rose by more than 3%.
Although it has started again in the past few days, the overall increase is still there.
All gains don't happen overnight, just like when it was the case。I feel that there can still be a red envelope for the New Year**.
The first good thing to release water is generally **. If the property market comes, will the property market be far away?
Structural differentiation
Last year's two RRR cuts, each time the magnitude was only 025%。The most recent one was on September 15, 2023, more than 4 months ago.
This 0The 5% magnitude would provide about $1 trillion of long-term liquidity to the market. It is equivalent to the RRR cut for the whole year last year, which greatly exceeded the market's expectations.
But the power of this RRR cut is even greater than imagined. 1 trillion counts the money multiplier,In fact, nearly 8 trillion funds were released.
And the 8 trillion funds that are about to flow are actually not the main force, but a stirring stick. Its mission is:Stir up the amount of money that has been over-issued before and is idling in the bank
So how much of these currencies are there? Let's take a look at the M2 data for the last 10 years:
From the data, we can see that in 2014-2018, these five years grew approximately1.5 times；And in the five years from 2018 to 2023, the growth is about the same1.6 times
This compares to 110 in 20137 trillion, 292 in 202327 trillion, an increase of 18157 trillion, is its2.64 times
Compared to 198 in 201965 trillion, 292 in 202327 trillion, an increase of 9362 trillion, which is 147 times,This equates to an increase of almost 50%.
The most exaggerated is 2022-2023. In 2022, M2 grew by 2811 trillion, an increase of 25 in 202387 trillion, a total increase in two years5398 trillion
It should be noted that, unlike in the past, this part of M2 in 2022-2023 has not yet been reflected in prices and house prices.
The increase in M2 in the past 8 years from 2014 to 2021 has already accumulated in the price and property market.
But in 2022-2023 it increased by 5398 trillion is still idling in the bank.
You may not feel it just by looking at the numbers, let's look at the percentage, 5398/238.29=22.65%。
These released funds, whether they are going to the real economy or the real economy, as long as they enter the market and flow, will inevitably promote the rise of prices in all aspects.
The rise in prices is generally one after another, all walks of life have raised prices, and they have made money, from opening factories, to opening stores, to working, everyone's purse will bulge.
Everyone has made money, and commodities have become more expensive, which is what we usually call inflation.
Vaguely speaking,It is equivalent to a 20% depreciation of money, which is almost equivalent to a 20% discount on the purchasing power of the banknotes in your hand
After that, if you don't want too much water to flood the entire market and make prices unreachable, then the ultimate destination of these working capital is only, and only the property market.
Only the property market can carry these currencies, otherwise prices will go up to the sky
You might want to think about it, in the decade from 2014 to 2023, M2 grew by 238 times, how much have prices and house prices risen respectively?
Many people say that the property market is not good now, and the house is not for speculation.
But I think,As long as the basis of land finance remains unchanged, the function of the real estate reservoir remains unchanged, and the logic of banks regarding real estate as an anchor for creditor's rights remains unchanged, the excess money flowing into real estate will not change as paper wealth is accumulated.
Then the final ** of housing prices is actually a manifestation of over-issued currency.
As a result, all kinds of processes are just tortuous processes. usIt is necessary to firmly usher in the final destination of the over-issued currency after entering the market.
At the beginning of the year, the further RRR cut and the targeted interest rate cut, what we can see is that the support of the financial side is increasing, and the liquidity released is increasing. This may just be the beginning.
Next, it is necessary to pay closer attention to how high M2 will reach in the next year.
We expect an across-the-board rate cut to occur by the end of Q1 as well.
In addition, we judge that there will be 2-3 RRR cuts and interest rate cuts this year.
Of course, on a warm and cold day, it is indeed easy to catch a cold.
If you're strong, you can already embrace spring. If you have a weak foundation, you might as well wait until summer before going out.