As we all know, the first round of housing reform in China's property market began in 1998. At that time, the per capita housing area of the inhabitants was only 6-7 square meters. Up to now, the per capita housing area of Chinese residents has reached 39 square meters. However, the housing price across the country has also risen from 2,000 yuan per square meter at the beginning of the housing reform to 11,000 yuan per square meter at the highest level in 2021. In more than 20 years, housing prices have risen by 5 percent across the country5 times. This has also allowed the speculators to achieve financial freedom.
And this round of real estate ** trend continued until 2021. Since then, domestic housing prices have entered a long-term adjustment trend. Especially after entering 2023, the pace of a new round of adjustment in the domestic property market is accelerating, and there is still no sign of stopping.
According to the latest housing price data of Baicheng: the average second-hand residential property in Baicheng in January was 15,230 yuan square meters, a month-on-month increase of 056%, which has been month-on-month for 21 consecutive months**. In addition, the number of second-hand residential buildings in January reached 99 month-on-month, a decrease of 1 from December 2023, and the number of second-hand housing cities has exceeded 90 cities for 8 consecutive months.
In the face of the trend of housing prices in various parts of the country, many netizens asked: In 5 years, how much will a house with a market value of 3 million be worth? In this regard, Ma Guangyuan, an independent economist in China, made it clear in one sentence. He once said:Real estate as the best investment in China has come to an end, and in the future, housing prices will gradually return to residential attributes
Ma Guangyuan means that in the future, the real estate market will lose its money-making effect, and housing prices will gradually be de-invested, and eventually linked to local residential income. Obviously, there are more bubbles in housing prices everywhere now. In the next 5 years, the market value of house prices will definitely be much lower than now**.
In fact, in five years, how much a house with a market value of 3 million yuan will be worth will be determined by the income level of local residents: on the one hand, in third- and fourth-tier cities, the income level of local residents is low because there are not many employment opportunities available. So the outflow of people is greater than the inflow. If you own a house with a market value of 3 million, in addition to the fact that it is likely that there will be a significant adjustment in the house price. There will even be a "price but no market" problem.
If it is in a first-tier city, now 3 million can only buy a large old and dilapidated house in the city center, or can only buy a house in the suburbs, such houses are not equipped with complete supporting facilities, and the future house has poor resistance to decline. And after 5 years, due to the withdrawal of investment and speculation demand, these two types of houses are likely to become less and less valuable.
Of course, there are many people who will feel strange, domestic housing prices have risen for more than 20 years, although this time has experienced a long period of adjustment, but it is still very likely that there will be a reversal, and why say that the trend of housing prices in the future is to find the bottom? In this regard, we believe that there are several main reasons:
First, the domestic real estate market is already seriously overwhelmed. According to the information released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are a total of 600 million houses in China. Even if each house can accommodate five people, that is enough to solve the housing problem of 3 billion people. Of course, this also includes small property rights housing, resettlement housing, rural residents' housing, etc., but it is an indisputable fact that the domestic real estate market is excessive.
Second, people's desire to buy a house has changed. After three years of the pandemic, most people have lost their incomes or lost their jobs, and are cautious about future income growth expectations. At present, the demand for housing in the people is shrinking rapidly. At the same time, due to the continuous housing prices, the real estate market has lost the effect of making money, and after the epidemic, many home buyers have begun to become more and more rational, and they will decide whether to buy a house according to their actual situation. Therefore, in the future, the demand for rigid and improved housing will be less and less.
Third, the long-term regulatory effect of real estate is gradually fermenting. As early as 2016, China began to adjust the real estate market, the main purpose is to curb the rapid housing prices, and truly realize the purpose of "houses are for living, not for speculation". According to the data, in 2021 alone, there will be more than 650 domestic real estate regulations, including the three red lines set by the central bank for the financing of real estate enterprises.
After a long period of fermentation, the effects of these real estate control policies are gradually emerging. Therefore, some of the current policies are favorable, which can avoid housing prices remaining relatively stable in the short term, and cannot change the general trend of real estate adjustment. In the future, housing prices will gradually return to residential properties, which is a high probability.