In the collision between expectation and reality, the earth has once again completed a revolution, and 2024 will go through more than a month. Many years from now, we may still remember the beginning of 2024, when the market experienced an extreme decline in a "undervalued" situation after a three-year correction.
At the beginning of this year, A-shares have left a lot of memories, such as "snowball knocking in", "1,000 shares falling limit", "two financial events", "quantitative crisis", "liquidation" and so on.
But no matter how many frustrations there are, at the Chinese New Year's Eve dinner on the Chinese New Year's Eve, you must smile when you raise a glass to celebrate the reunion.
I would like to use this article, like pouring a pot of wine, to respect all the imperfections, and to see the new year.
Assets
Extremely clever, and modest
At the beginning of this year, seeing it build a high-rise building and feasting guests, the pessimism of assets seems to be completely incompatible.
When the water of the market is still trying to pour into the pursuit of the secret of micro-cap stocks, the rapid ** came, the "snowball" knocked into the butterfly that instigated the wings, and the micro-cap index quickly erased the excess returns of the past year in a month, and the excess returns of small and medium-cap indices such as CSI 2000 in the past two years have also become negative.
When ** fell into the liquidity dilemma and quickly bottomed out, many shareholders shouted to witness history, and the floating loss in a month was more than a year, but the bull market of bonds went deeper and farther, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds once hit 2 directlyThe record low of 4% has ushered in a significant decline in bond yields of all maturities.
When the pessimism of A-shares is pervasive, the irrational spiral** has formed a "fearful" market trend, and the valuation is extremely low but investors are afraid to buy, many cross-border ETFs have a rare and large premium, moving towards "greed".
After all, this is the world of capital, money never sleeps, the gears of fate are always turning, no market, which type of asset, which strategy can win a single bet, and to be able to do "just right" is the most difficult art in the world.
In this process, the excavation base learned two sentences:
One,".Extremely clever, and modest
Simple and extreme things are often the best, and they also have a lower cognitive cost. It's just that such things are often fragile and easy to subvert, and Wangwen Shengyi is the biggest misunderstanding of the way of the "mean", "people are not good for a thousand days, and flowers are not red for a hundred days", which tells us to do a good job in the allocation of assets.
Second, ".Don't go to the place where everyone is fighting
Looking back at the history of the capital market, excessive consensus expectations often take a sharp turn suddenly, and behind each "frenzy", it will need painful clearing to digest, but after full clearing, it is often the beginning of a new journey. What we can do is to remain optimistic when we are depressed and vigilant when we are excited.
people
Under the cliffs, the situation is full of problems
At the beginning of this year, the mentality of investors reached a new high, and the irrational market was like a mirror, which nakedly magnified the inappropriate operations during it.
In this wave of irrationality, the small and medium-sized market has a large area of falling limit, in it, you can see the pain after the "leverage" liquidation, you can see the panic of rampage and undiscipline, you can see the regret of leaving the market decisively and rising the next day, and so on.
In this process, the mentality of digging the base has also gone through Zhang Huang, and then calm, and the value of the three investment thinking has been re-examined in the ups and downs
One,".Bottom-line thinking
The world is panicking, just for a few taels of broken silver", but a gentleman loves money and takes it in a good way. Behind the ups and downs of every asset, it is related to the happiness of many families, and it is infinite concern and sustenance.
At any time, do a good job of risk prevention, invest with spare money, make investments that can be understood and meet risk tolerance, diversify allocation, don't increase leverage, don't go on a rampage, stay calm, follow discipline, and "live" first.
Second, ".Weak thinking
Put yourself in the position of the weak, admit the limitations of your own circle of competence, recognize the objectivity of the operation of the market, realize that the sustained ** and ** are not long-lasting, and look for something with higher certainty and winning rate in the long run.
Don't want to beat the market, its temper is ever-changing, how many years, people who want to explore are like numb, and the final success seems to be unknown, so in operation, it is natural to know that the bottom is unpredictable, and you should also be a little vigilant.
Thirdly,Cultivating the mind
The more difficult it is, the more you cultivate your mind, investing is a practice, boring and difficult, as economist Paul Samuelson put it vividly: it's like waiting for the paint to dry out and watching the grass grow.
The difference is that the turmoil of assets in the process often brings inner peace, anxiety, pain, anxiety makes our investment discipline deformed, during which the big waves and the later rebirth of the fire, only the quiet and humble observer of time is witnessing.
Times
Drifting away, yesterday's world
At the beginning of this year, from the law of the discussion cycle to the turn of the discussion era, the topic has become more and more enthusiastic.
Yes, this round of cold winter of A-shares is longer than imagined, and today we look at many indicators, such as valuation, stock and bond cost performance, and bull and bear laws, all of which have reached the extreme, and what A-shares are experiencing seems to be difficult to explain with the past value system.
As a result, some people say that "the turmoil in the meantime may reflect a world of yesterday that is gradually drifting away", and when the times undergo structural changes, expectations based on history become a burden, and it is necessary to "shed the shell little by little and grow a new texture".
It is true that some of the past wealth creation narratives have changed in recent years, but yesterday is gone, which never means the end of history, after all, the cycle of the past has never been a simple repetition, and only by saying goodbye to the old narrative can a new narrative be opened.
In the long run, several major leaps in human civilization have brought about the great development of social productive forces, and the labor pains in turning around are nothing more than small bands in large bands, which are only a moment in the long river of time, and they are only a drop in the ocean under the general coordinates of human civilization.
Assets and the times resonate, looking back on the past, the development and changes of the financial market, also full of ups and downs and the overlap of the old and the new, every time **continues**, there will be a lot of grand worries:
Some of the worries are wrong, and they will end with the error being falsified, and some of the big fears are right, but they will still end, because the valuation will digest the long-term worries in advance, and then even if the long-term worries persist, they may end the adjustment and regain their footing at a new sea level under a completely different bullish logic.
This time too, the times will set sail again from a new sea level. In recent years, the transformation of the domestic economy at three levels has been accelerating, and the quality and sustainability of economic development are improving significantly.
At the macro and meso levels, the economic structure is transformed, the proportion of high value-added industries is increasing, and the high-end manufacturing industry is booming;
At the micro level, the transformation of Chinese enterprise elements, technological innovation as the core element lays the foundation for the global competitiveness of Chinese enterprises;
At the market level, the transformation of residents' asset allocation, from real estate to equity assets, is taking place significantly.
Admittedly, when the pace and fluctuation of economic growth are different from the trajectory of previous decades, it is natural for some investors to feel confused.
However, through this fog, you and I know that the transformation of the economic structure has gone through the most difficult moment, and the general tone of China's long-term upward economy in the future will not change, and the general tone of the capital market will not change.
At the same time, when the transformation of the economic structure comes to the deep water area, the industries and companies that will undertake the new economic growth in the future are also thriving, among which towering trees will emerge, so that investors' confidence and perseverance in the capital market will blossom and bear fruit.
Looking closer, in the "disheartened" moment on the plate:
We have seen the influx of incremental funds, ** Huijin Company announced that it has recently expanded the scope of ETF holdings, and will continue to increase its holdings and expand the scale of holdings;
Seeing the sincerity and determination of the policy, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued 13 policies in three days, from the optimization and adjustment of securities lending business to the severe punishment of malicious short-selling, from the enhancement of investment value of listed companies to the guidance of various institutions to enter the market more vigorously, no matter how big or small;
Seeing the historical experience at the bottom, the shareholders of listed companies who have "insight into the fundamentals" of their own companies have set off a wave of repurchases and made a big move
I also saw the objective law of the cycle, in any case, the adjustment space and decline of this round of bear market have reached the level of "clearing" in history.
All this gives a clear signal that the sun brewing in the depths may be about to shine.
Yesterday is gone with the wind, tomorrow is forever new, let the beginning of the year remain in the memory, a glass of wine to the past, may we move forward in the tide of individuals and the times, and wish you a happy New Year.
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