Side B of this year's Spring Festival tourism data.
Column |Cultural Tourism Business Observation.
Header |Real shot in the travel world.
Yesterday, there was an interesting thing, in the Spring Festival tourism all parties reported good news, a peaceful atmosphere, a Jiangxi people's congress deputy Zhu Hong suggested to improve the work of tourism statistics.
Zhu Hong said that at present, there is a problem of "horizontal incomparability, vertical non-additional" in tourism statistics, and all walks of life have more doubts about tourism statistics. In particular, in terms of the number of tourists and tourism income, the sum of local statistical data greatly exceeds the statistical data published by the state, that is, "the nose is bigger than the face", so that some news units dare not report, local leaders are embarrassed to introduce it, and the enthusiasm of local departments for work is dampened, which seriously affects the development of tourism. ”
Zhu Hong's words are more sharp, but in fact, it is also a topic often discussed in the industry, and judging from Zhu Hong's past speeches, the former deputy director of the Standing Committee of the Jiangxi Provincial People's Congress has been concerned about the development of domestic tourism.
It just so happens that in the past two days, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism released data that the Spring Festival holiday was 8 days, and the number of domestic tourists was 47.4 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 343%, an increase of 19. on a comparable basis compared to the same period in 20190%, the total cost of domestic tourists is 63269.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 473%, an increase of 7. on a comparable basis compared to the same period in 20197%。
The number of trips and total spending have increased, but the average daily spending per capita has decreased.
The average daily cost of domestic tourists during the Spring Festival in 2024 will be 166 yuan, down nearly 5% from 174 yuan during last year's Spring Festival, and it is even more incomparable with 2019.
Perhaps, from the official data, we can conclude that:The consumption pattern of Chinese people has changed from "having money but no time" to "having time but not money".
Of course, let's not forget that this year's Spring Festival holiday is also one more day than in previous years.
In other words, people have more time to travel, but the trend of downgrading consumption persists.
According to economists at Nomura and Goldman Sachs, China's per capita tourism revenue fell by 9 percent during this year's eight-day Lunar New Year holiday compared to the same period in 20195%。
Nomura also calculated that footfall to major shopping malls in the country fell by 8% year-on-year during this year's Lunar New Year.
In this "hottest in history" Spring Festival tourism market, consumption once again highlights the trend of cost performance, including Hainan, which has "never won online and never lost offline".
According to data from Haikou Customs, the customs agency of Hainan duty-free island, the average holiday spend per customer fell by 16% year-on-year.
The data is on fire, and the merchants and enterprises in the industry do not feel it obviously, which has always been an embarrassing reality in the past period and even in the previous years.
Spend less money and have a more popular "Spring Festival", which is the reason why the tourism data of this year's Spring Festival holiday does not look so good.
The phrase "it's not that xx can't afford to go, but xx is more cost-effective" has become a popular phrase among young people.
The sluggish domestic consumption has become a big problem, and there are indeed bright spots in tourism spending, but it cannot be done in a point-by-point manner.
During this year's Spring Festival, the Fat Donglai Supermarket in Xuchang, Henan Province refreshed the record of the hottest scenic spot in Henan with its amazing number of tourists.
According to the data released by Xuchang, only three days before the Spring Festival, the three supermarkets of Angel City, Times Square and Life Square received a total of 116The 330,000 tourists were jokingly called the "6A-level scenic spots" without off-season by netizens.
According to the data of the Xuchang Bureau of Culture and Tourism, during the Spring Festival holiday (8 days), the city's 11 4A scenic spots received a total of about 127 tourists30,000 people.
It is not difficult to see that the tourist reception volume of Fat Donglai in only 3 days is almost the same as the reception volume of other 11 4A scenic spots in 8 days.
In addition, the main attraction of Harbin tourism, which began to explode on New Year's Day, is also "cost-effective", and it will continue to be popular during the Spring Festival this year.
According to the big data calculation of the Harbin Municipal Bureau of Culture, Radio, Television and Tourism, the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 (February 10 to February 17) will receive a total of 1,009 tourists30,000 person-times, a year-on-year increase of 817%；Achieve a total tourism income of 164200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 235 on a comparable basis4%。Both the number of tourists received and the total tourism revenue reached historical peaks.
From the explosion of supermarket tours and Harbin, we can see the new trend of affordable consumption that has become more and more obvious in recent years.
Nomura analysts, led by Lu Ting, said that although the decline in the domestic real estate sector could hit household income and wealth hardBut the end of the housing frenzy is helping to redirect spending and time use towards consumptionEspecially the shift to low-cost travel.
Hobart Salamanca Bazaar Travel real shot.
In the "lost thirty years" of the Japanese economic downturn, there is also the "lipstick effect", that is, "the trend of preference for low-priced products". In times of economic downturn, people do not have no desire to spend, but will turn to cheaper luxury goods.
When the economy is booming, people's income is relatively sufficient, and their expectations for the future are good, so they will choose places with higher consumption and pursue higher quality and experience of catering and shopping. When the economy is in a downturn, on the contrary, people will take the initiative to reduce the requirements for destinations, food, accommodation, and shopping from the perspective of saving.
Compared with the popular tourist cities in the past, the advantages of surrounding supermarket tours are highlighted.
The lack of famous scenic spots and delicacies from the mountains and seas means saving money, and the attractions and restaurants with local characteristics can also meet the basic tourism needs. A meal is only a few dozen yuan per person, and such a cheap tourism is precisely the "charm".
Compared with the big cities and outbound travel in the past, today's travel mode is actually a down-to-earth and affordable lifestyle that people seek with "releasing their minds".
In the tight life, compared to the crowded people of popular attractions, going to a small city that was once unknown, visiting a supermarket, and feeling the relaxed atmosphere of the local life has become people's first choice.
Yesterday, the central bank released the new LPR data, and the LPR of more than 5 years was cut by 25 basis points, the largest single interest rate cut in history.
Many experts are saying that the reduction of the five-year LPR is to increase residents' confidence in buying houses and reduce the financing cost of real estate enterprises, in fact, the intention of stimulating household consumption, expanding domestic demand, and reducing the debt of the middle class is also obvious. When the domestic middle class chooses to cover their money bags, increasing the single cost of tourism is bound to be an empty word.
On the other hand, in Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and other destinations and countries with mature inbound tourism industries, they have relatively no longer attached importance to the number of tourists, and paid more attention to the economic value created by a single tourist for the destination, which is called "sustainable tourism" in a fresh and refined popular expression.
For example, Japan** will develop a plan that includes various targets such as per capita consumption, and "strive to improve quality and set targets that do not depend on the number of tourists."
After all, a group of people spend 100 yuan in one destination, and one person spends 100 yuan in a destination, which is not difficult to make at a glance for the local people's livelihood and the cost of consuming manpower.
He once chatted with a friend from the Scandinavian (Norway, Denmark) tourism bureau, and he bluntly said that at least in the two capital areas, the hotels in the capital areas of the two countries have not accepted the "one day to change the city" style of domestic travel agencies in the past, and they want to get the room at least three days, "The advantage of this is that the hotel reduces the cost of replacing bedding, bathroom supplies, cleaning, etc." ”
Ippetsy Yip, CEO of VisitBritain, also said bluntly to the travel industry that the best way for Chinese tourists to travel sustainably is to stay longer in order to explore more exciting activities.
The Langham, London Travel Photography
On the other hand, domestic tourist destinations are still too obsessed with some exaggerated figures, online is hundreds of millions of traffic, offline is as long as people come, or even go out to a supermarket for more than dozens of kilometers to give statistics, and then enough to explain to the above how good this Spring Festival is.
Zhu Hong, a deputy to the National People's Congress, believes that part of the reason for the "distortion" of tourism data is that due to the lack of tourism statistics professionals in various provinces, the survey team in the process of tourism statistics survey is inconsistent, and the implementation scale is not uniform, resulting in "horizontal incomparability" of tourism statistics between provinces, and some local tourism statistics are inflated.
To this end, Zhu Hong's suggestion is to speed up the construction of provincial-level tourism data centers, explore the use of new technologies such as the Internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other paths, ways and means to collect data, and take the number of mobile phone transit, the number of overnight stays, the number of shoppers in tourist attractions, and the number of people who buy tickets to scenic spots as important parameters.
It's just that at present, the Spring Festival tourism data is becoming more and more fascinating, but practitioners need to be calm when making market decisions and judgments.
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