The situation in Myanmar is becoming increasingly tense, and the conflict between the Allied Forces and Min Aung Hlaing's army has been escalating, resulting in a large number of personnel and livelihood difficulties. In this civil war, the roles and positions of the two great powers, China and Russia, have attracted the attention of the outside world. Are there divergent interests between China and Russia? Why should Russia support Min Aung Hlaing**? What impact does this have on China's Belt and Road Initiative?
Min Aung Hlaing** has been widely condemned and sanctioned by the international community since the coup d'état in 2021, but it has received strong support from Russia. Putin congratulated Min Aung Hlaing immediately after the coup and provided him with food, oil, and other aid. Min Aung Hlaing also reciprocated Putin's "hospitality" by publicly expressing support for Russia's position when Russia launched a military operation against Ukraine.
Russia's support for Min Aung Hlaing is not only politically and economically, but also militarily. The Russian fleet arrived at the port of Myanmar on November 22, 2023, and held the first joint Russian-Burmese maritime exercises with the Myanmar Navy in history. In addition, it is reported that Russia also plans to send engineers to help the Myanmar ** army repair and upgrade fighter jets to improve the air combat capability of the Tatmadaw army.
There are many reasons for Russia's support for Min Aung Hlaing. First of all, Putin and Min Aung Hlaing have good personal relations, and Russia is reluctant to give up its influence in Myanmar based on "friendship". Second, Min Aung Hlaing is an important ally of Russia in Asia, which can be used by Russia to demonstrate its strength in Asia and resist Western containment and sanctions. Thirdly, Russia has important economic interests in Myanmar, especially in terms of energy and arms, Russia is the largest country in Myanmar, and Myanmar is also an important energy market for Russia in Asia.
China and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners of coordination, and the two sides maintain a high degree of coordination and cooperation in international affairs to jointly uphold multilateralism and international order. However, on the issue of the civil war in Myanmar, there seem to be some differences of interest and contradictions between China and Russia.
China's attitude toward Myanmar is that it hopes that Myanmar will achieve peace, stability and development, respect the wishes of the Myanmar people, resolve differences through dialogue and consultation, and avoid violent conflicts. China calls on the international community to exercise restraint on the Myanmar issue, refrain from interfering in Myanmar's internal affairs and refrain from aggravating the situation in Myanmar. China is also actively mediating to promote dialogue among all parties in Myanmar and restore normal order.
China's concern for Myanmar is not only motivated by humanitarian considerations, but also by strategic interests. Myanmar is China's neighbor and an important partner of China's Belt and Road Initiative. China has extensive economic and social ties in Myanmar and important security interests. The turmoil in Myanmar will not only affect Chinese investment and projects in Myanmar, but also threaten China's border security and national unity. China does not want Myanmar to become the leader of external forces, let alone become a battlefield in the game between China and the United States.
Russia's support for Myanmar has undoubtedly brought certain pressure and challenges to China. On the one hand, Russia's involvement could exacerbate the civil war in Myanmar, make the situation in Myanmar more complicated and dangerous, and make it more difficult for China to mediate and mediate. On the other hand, Russia's involvement could also weaken China's influence in Myanmar and damage China's strategic interests in Indochina. China needs to find a balance between maintaining friendly relations with Russia and safeguarding its own interests.
The civil war in Myanmar has not only touched the nerves of China and Russia, but also the nerves of the whole of Asia and even the world. The development of the civil war in Myanmar could trigger a series of chain reactions that could affect the regional and international situation.
First, the civil war in Myanmar could trigger a humanitarian crisis, creating a large number of refugees and displaced people, placing a heavy burden on neighbouring countries and the international community. The civil war in Myanmar has caused hundreds of thousands of people to flee their homes and seek refuge. Some have fled to neighbouring countries such as Thailand, India, and Bangladesh, while others have fled to ethnic minority areas along the Myanmar border, adding to tensions and instability. The civil war in Myanmar can also trigger humanitarian problems such as disease, famine and violence, threatening people's lives and health.
Second, the civil war in Myanmar may trigger a regional security crisis, lead to instability and deterioration of the regional situation, and affect regional peace and cooperation. The civil war in Myanmar has spilled over into the border areas of Myanmar with neighbouring countries, triggering a number of armed clashes and firefights.
Finally, the civil war in Myanmar may trigger international games, lead to changes and adjustments in international relations, and affect the international order and rules. The civil war in Myanmar has attracted the attention and involvement of the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries, all of which have expressed concern and criticism of Myanmar's democracy and human rights issues, and have also exerted certain pressure and sanctions on Myanmar's military. The civil war in Myanmar could also become a point of friction between China and the United States, where the United States could use it to put pressure on China to weaken its influence and position in Asia. The civil war in Myanmar may also affect relations between China and Russia, and Russia's involvement may cause dissatisfaction and vigilance in China, and test the strategic cooperation between China and Russia.
The civil war in Myanmar is a complex issue involving multiple interests and factors. The resolution of the civil war in Myanmar requires sincere dialogue and compromise on the part of all parties in Myanmar, as well as the rationality and responsibility of the international community. The peace of the civil war in Myanmar is not only related to the well-being of the Burmese people, but also to the harmony and development of Asia and the world.