Min Aung Hlaing's army** suddenly launched an air strike on the Kokang area, causing a large number of civilians**. This is another breach of promise by Min Aung Hlaing against the Kokang Allied Forces since the signing of the peace agreement last year. Min Aung Hlaing's move has drawn strong condemnation from the international community and has also puzzled those concerned about the situation in Myanmar: Why did Min Aung Hlaing take the risk of provoking this unwinnable war? Where does his confidence come from?
To answer this question, we need to analyze Min Aung Hlaing's motivations and strategies from three perspectives. The first aspect is Min Aung Hlaing's self-confidence in the military superiority of the Kokang Allied forces. Min Aung Hlaing believes that the Kokang Allied Army has only more than 10,000 people and does not have a solid base and logistical support, while he has the most powerful army and air force, as well as advanced equipment imported from Russia. He believed that, with sufficient force, he would be able to wipe out the Kokang allies in a short period of time, or at least drive them out of the Kokang region and regain control of this strategic location. He ignored the stubborn resistance of the Kokang Allied forces and the support of the population, and underestimated the impact of the terrain and climate in the Kokang region on the war.
The second aspect is the change in Min Aung Hlaing's attitude towards China. Min Aung Hlaing once saw China as his most important ally and supporter, but in recent years he has felt pressure and resentment from China. China has been promoting the peace process in Myanmar and urging Min Aung Hlaing to engage in dialogue and negotiation with various ethnic armed groups, so as to respect and protect Myanmar's ethnic diversity and national unity. China is also concerned about human rights and democracy in Myanmar, and calls on Min Aung Hlaing to release Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners and respect public opinion and the rule of law. Min Aung Hlaing feels that these demands from the Chinese side limit his power and interests, and threaten his rule and security. He began to seek the support and help of other powers, especially those who were not interested in Burma's internal affairs and only concerned about Burma's resources and geopolitics. He hopes that through cooperation with these big countries, he will get more ** and funds and enhance his strength and status.
The third aspect is Min Aung Hlaing's complacency over Myanmar's internal political and social control. Min Aung Hlaing believes that he has succeeded in suppressing the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar, eliminating the influence of opposition groups such as Aung San Suu Kyi and stabilizing the situation in Naypyidaw. He also tried to use Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's influence to co-opt and appease some ethnic forces and weaken their fighting spirit and unity. He thought that as long as Naypyidaw was stable, he could safely deal with the problems in the Kokang region, and then solve the other ethnic forces one by one, so as to achieve complete unification and control of Burma.
To sum up, Min Aung Hlaing's confidence mainly comes from his overconfidence in his military superiority, his distrust of China, and his control over Myanmar's interior. However, these are based on wrong judgments and illusions. Min Aung Hlaing's military campaign has not only failed to achieve his goals, but has instead fueled conflict in the Kokang region, sparked more humanitarian crises, and damaged Myanmar's relations with China and other countries. Min Aung Hlaing's political strategy has not been able to stabilize the situation in Myanmar, but has provoked resistance and dissatisfaction among the people of Myanmar and exacerbated the turmoil in Myanmar. Min Aung Hlaing's confidence will eventually become his arrogance and stupidity, leading to his defeat and demise.