In recent years, with the rise of Chinese OLED manufacturers, the market share of Korean manufacturers has been declining year by year, and the proportion of their shipments has increased from 66 in 20222% to 51 in 20238%。Chinese OLED manufacturers led by BOE and Visionox have benefited from the improvement of product yield and technology, which has continuously improved their competitiveness in the global market, and promoted the rapid growth of domestic OLED panel shipments, accounting for more than 40% of shipments in 2023, and is expected to surpass South Korea for the first time in 2024.
So far,The OLED industry will enter a stage of high-quality development, from the past "volume, spell shipment" to "fight technology, the pursuit of high premium", a new round of competition, innovation is king.
The market recovered, and the volume and price of OLED panels rose
Since August 2023, the mobile phone market has been activated with the return of the Huawei Mate 60 series and the release of Apple's iPhone 15. Subsequently, terminal brands such as Honor, vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, realme, and OnePlus have launched new phones one after another. Under the continuous hot sales of domestic high-end flagship mobile phones, Chinese smartphones ushered in a wave of long-lost "Xiaoyangchun". In addition to the efforts of terminal manufacturers, the enhancement of the "screen" strength of domestic panel factories has also provided assistance for the recovery of domestic mobile phones.
Data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2023 in China's mobile phone market, Xiaomi's mobile phone sales increased by 38% year-on-year to 1180210,000 units, with 15The market share of 7% topped the domestic mobile phone. It was followed by Huawei, which soared by 79 percent in salesAn excellent result of 3% won 154% market share, ranking second in domestic mobile phones. And Honor's mobile phone sales also increased by 12% year-on-year9% to 1111160,000 units, with a market share of 148%……Behind the flurry of numbers, it shows that the smartphone market is recovering.
Data**: Cinno Quarterly Mobile Phone Panel Value Chain Report
According to the latest data from Cinno Research, the global market will ship about 6 AMOLED smartphone panels in 2023900 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 161%, with fourth-quarter shipments up 309%, an increase of 351%。In terms of domestic manufacturers, the share of shipments in 2023 will increase by 13 year-on-year9 percentage points to 432%。Among them, BOE shipments increased by 44% year-on-year7% to 162% market share, second in the world; Visionox shipments increased by 68% year-over-year4% and a market share of 99%, ranking third in the world; Shenzhen Tianma shipments increased by 259 year-on-year4% and a market share of 69%, ranking fourth in the world.
Talking about the reasons for the rapid increase in the market share of domestic OLED manufacturers,The industry believes that there are mainly onesTwoFirst, the production capacity, product yield and technology of domestic panel factories have been continuously improvedProduct PricingMore hasAdvantage. The second is mobile phone and panel manufacturersStrengthenCooperation, such as BOE, Visionox and Honor, OPPO, OnePlus, etc., the two sides jointly design products, further bind, and establish a deeper cooperative relationship.
Industry insiders pointed out that the popular models released in the second half of 2023 basically use domestic OLED panels, which also include folding, 2K, LTPO and other products that Samsung Display previously occupied an absolute leading position. Domestic panel manufacturers are becoming more and more favored by the market, and their market share is increasing rapidly. Taking Visionox as an example, it focuses on OLED display products for mid-to-high-end models, and has won orders for flagship series products from leading brand customers such as Honor and Vivo through innovative technology and stable delivery, and its market share in high-end models has increased significantly.
With the continuous hot sales of high-end mobile phones such as Mate 60 series and Xiaomi 14 series, mobile phone brands have also increased the purchase of flexible LTPO OLED, which has caused a sharp increase in the demand for flexible LTPO OLED, resulting in a structural shortage of flexible OLED, and the ** of LTPO OLED is in a tight state.
In the tense state of flexible LTPO OLED**, terminal brands are willing to increase the price to obtain more flexible LTPO OLED production capacity. Jiwei Network learned that in September 2023, the low-cost products of flexible screens will start to rise in price, and in October, domestic flexible OLED panels will begin to be comprehensive, with an increase of less than 10%. According to Cinno Research data, flexible OLED products maintained a slight price increase in November and December.
TCL Huaxing told Jiwei that since September 2023, the mobile phone industry has entered the peak season for the release of new machines, manufacturers have continuously upgraded the screen configuration of new machines, and the demand for mid-to-high-end OLED panels has grown rapidly, resulting in a structural tension in OLED supply and demand in the near future, and the product has shown a rebounding trend.
High-end mobile phones are pulling, and domestic manufacturers have entered the "innovation harvest period".
Entering 2024, as the global smartphone market is fully developed, many mobile phone manufacturers have raised their shipment targets. According to the ** chain manufacturer, in 2024, it is expected that the shipment target of Transsion mobile phones will increase by 30 million units, Huawei's sales of new phones will increase by 20 million units to 30 million units, and Honor will increase by 20 million units. Samsung Electronics and OPPO also plan to increase production in 2024, with an increase of between 6% and 9%, and the high-end segment will increase even more。The high-end market means high technology, high quality, and at the same time, there is more room for premium. Whoever has a stronger innovation ability will make more profits, and panel manufacturers have entered the "innovation harvest period".
Some analysts revealed that the additional orders of domestic mobile phone manufacturers are more concentrated in the field of mid-to-high-end mobile phones such as folding screens. Among them, Huawei's folding screen mobile phone shipment target is planned to be significantly increased from 2.6 million units in 2023 to 7 million to 10 million units. This will squeeze Apple's market share and bring new changes to the mobile phone market, which is warming up this year.
In addition to Huawei, domestic mobile phone manufacturers such as Honor, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi have also accelerated the layout of the folding screen mobile phone field, and their shipments will increase significantly in 2023. The report of China Securities Construction Investment pointed out that the listing of Huawei's new folding machine has attracted attention, and the overall iteration of the folding machine has become more mature, driving the folding machine market to usher in an explosion. At present, the penetration rate is only in the single digits, and it is in the stage of explosive growth of 1 n. Global shipments will increase from 13.1 million units in 2022 to 100 million units in 2027, growing at a CAGR of 51%.
The outbreak of the folding mobile phone market is expected to further open up the market space of domestic flexible OLED. The Omdia report pointed out that 2023 is the year of the outbreak of folding screen mobile phones, with a total of 18 new folding screen phones released, of which 16 are produced by Chinese brands, and 13 use flexible OLED panels made in China. High-end products such as LTPO and folding from domestic manufacturers such as BOE and Visionox have been recognized by many brands, and the demand for panels such as OLED LTPO is growing.
At present, major mobile phone brands still maintain a positive rhythm of pulling goods for flexible OLED panels, Qunzhi Consulting said that in 2024, the terminal demand for flexible OLED panels is still positive, and the production line capacity of domestic panel factories is still relatively tight, therefore, flexible OLED panels are seeking a new round of adjustment in the first quarter.
With the increase in OLED shipments and the highest quality, domestic panel manufacturers have begun to enter the "innovation harvest period", and the profitability of leading manufacturers has continued to increase. Everbright's research report pointed out that based on the recovery of consumer electronics, the high growth of the OLED industry, and the increase in the share of domestic manufacturers, the industry is fully optimistic about the domestic OLED industry chain, and the industry is expected to open a new round of business cycle.
Visionox told Jiwei that the OLED panel industry is actively changing to a healthier business state, and will gradually enter the innovation-driven growth stage from the specific shipment volume to the innovation and the pursuit of higher premiums. Only when the panel industry is in a healthy development can we have the opportunity to focus more on product innovation and industrial upgrading through innovation, so as to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the display industry.