Recently, a friend asked Lao Li, saying that he took a photo of a Xinhui tangerine peel labeled "Ten Years Chen" in the live broadcast room of a large Internet celebrity with tens of millions of fans, **250 grams (half a catty) is 149 yuan, and I bought two copies in total, that is, 500 grams of two cans (one catty) is only 298 yuan, which is equivalent to the price of this "ten years old" Xinhui tangerine peel is only 298 yuan catty.
The friend said bluntly: "After seeing the goods, this leather is not the traditional 'craft leather' appearance, but the taste is also relatively strong, and the various skin colors are mixed, which is completely different from the 'ten years old' new skin in my hand, what is this operation?" ”
Out of curiosity, Lao Li went to retrieve the live broadcast of this big V Internet celebrity**, and watched it completely several times, and the Xinhui tangerine peel of a certain brand of the goods he brought with him, various standards, certificates, etc. all meet the relevant requirements (assuming that these relevant certificates and labels are true), and also compared the ** sent by the reader, judging from the packaging, there is no suspicion of "counterfeiting".
Lao Li also listened to the high requirements for the quality of the goods, the treasure brand is very powerful, the subsidies are many, etc., as well as the performance support of more than one million orders sold, out of respect for the past experience of this big V (Lao Li is very much fan of this big V, but in the field of Xinhui tangerine peel that he is familiar with, he can't just eat melons), Lao Li will not answer them one by one, but more hypothetically, this ten-year Xinhui tangerine peel with goods ** "298 yuan a catty", In which case the real and false skin situation may occur.
At the end of 2023, a big Internet celebrity will bring goods to Xinhui tangerine peel.
Let's start with a simple cost derivation.
Suppose that the "ten-year-old tangerine peel" brought by this Internet celebrity big V is the peel harvested around 2014, at that time, it was about 3-5 yuan a catty (for the second and third-tier production areas such as Sanjiang and Shuangshui, and the core areas such as Meijiang Dongjia Tianma) to charge 10,000 catties of cheaper citrus fruits in the second- and third-tier production areas, that is, an average of 4 yuan a catty of Xinhui oranges, which was converted into dry peels after peeling and drying, that is, about 80 yuan The cost of new peels was about 80 yuan, so the procurement cost at that time was about 800,000 yuan.
Ten years later, we assume that the mold and moth rate of tangerine peel stored by this company is as follows, i.e. in accordance with natural attrition(Moisture drying, inner capsule shedding, desugaring and acid removal and other necessary consumption for aging)., then 30% of the weight loss, that is, 10,000 catties of leather under the condition of 0% moths and mold, the remaining 070,000 catties (in reality, it is impossible to achieve 0% loss).
Let's put 5% of the total cost of the annual investment according to the current cost of labor, water and electricity, rent, logistics and transportation for storing the 10,000 tangerine peels, that is, about 40,000 yuan, and the static cost for 10 years is about 400,000 yuan.
Now a rough calculation, on the premise of not calculating profits, this batch of 10,000 catties of leather purchased by 800,000 yuan in 2014 will be left with 070,000 catties, counting the total cost of all labor, management, warehousing and other total costs of about 1.2 million yuan, then converted to 171 yuan of old leather costs.
According to this calculation, people sell 298 yuan a pound of old skin, is it compared with the cost of its aging for ten years "171 yuan a catty", the gross profit has 298 yuan jin - 171 yuan jin = 127 yuan jin space? Its gross profit margin is also 70%, isn't this profit?
Looking at the numbers alone, then this number is correct, but the key point is that the premise of this ** assumption is that it can only be reasonable if there is no increase in the price of raw materials and the same purchasing power of money in the past ten years.
When we look at the price of oranges in 2023 is already several times that of 2014, you will find that if we follow our formula for calculating the static cost of aging for ten years, there will be an inversion of "new skin**" than "old skin", which is impossible and not allowed in the market!
Newly dried new skin in 2023.
Let's take another example, buying flour to make bread.
If our pound of flour is 10 yuan, then the production of a pound of bread must be more than 10 yuan, and when the price of flour rises, the price of our bread will inevitably rise, otherwise there will be no profit; In the same way, we can take the new skin every year as flour, and after more than 3 years of aging the skin is bread, then there will inevitably be the basic economic logic of bread ** with the price of flour.
The aging of tangerine peel itself is a process of dynamic input costs. With the new skin, it also means the purchase cost of the current year, so the old leather corresponding to the previous year will adjust the latest selling price according to the new year's raw materials, rather than ten years ago.
In fact, any market-oriented commodity is in line with such an economic logic - the raw materials that have been purchased in previous years must be affected by the current raw materials, and it is impossible to sell them according to the past cost (except for special circumstances such as mandatory price limits)!
Therefore, if the "ten-year Chen" of Xinhui Chenpi is calculated according to the 2023 new peel**, the cost of one pound is at least "more than 1,000 yuan", then it seems that this ten-year Chenxin peel with less than 300 yuan of goods brought by big Internet celebrities is true (I said if), then the merchant must be upside down to sell the goods with profits of n times the cost, and this behavior is basically doing "charity".
Lao Li emphasized again, if this old tangerine peel is real, then buying must be earned, Lao Li suggested that consumers more **, the more you buy, the more merchants will lose.
Readers purchased the "Ten Years Chen" Xinhui peel from the above-mentioned online celebrity live broadcast platform, which is mixed with citrus peels from multiple periods.
After talking about the hypothesis of "real leather", then let's also assume the possibility of "fake leather".
The first possibility, i.e., craft leather. At present, according to the cost of process leather, the cost of olding is generally between 100-200 yuan in five years and ten years, plus the cost of packaging, logistics, advertising investment, etc., an increase of about 50%, so the cost of old-age should be around 200 yuan. If the above-mentioned leather is a craft leather, then according to the sales of 298 yuan a catty, the profit margin after settlement is also profitable.
The second possibility is the tea branch citrus peel grown in Guangxi and other placesBecause its cost is only about 30% of the new skin, it is also profitable according to 298 yuan a pound of first-class process leather.
The third possibility is to replace the new peel with other tangerine peels**, which is even more expensive (less than 10% of the cost of the new peels). In fact, a long time ago, the process of making tangerine peel from ponkan, mandarin orange and other peels has appeared, but due to the lack of market, it has not opened the market. In the past few years, Xinhui tangerine peel has been pushed up as a representative of the tangerine peel industry, and other varieties of tangerine peel are also taking advantage of the situation to hit the Xinhui peel market with a very low **.
Xinhui tangerine peel in various production areas (villages).
Readers may also wonder why the traditional leather does not have the complex calculation formula? In fact, the answer is very simple, that is, the old process leather does not need a "long-term" cost input, more of the cost of labor, procurement, logistics and transportation, etc., and on the contrary, the core value of Xinhui tangerine peel lies in the long-term aging investment, so the craft skin at such a level, is a "little value" commodity.
But Lao Li is puzzled by the fact that from the ** sent by readers, this tangerine peel is not the traditional sense of "wet warehouse old skin", but the tangerine peel that has been seriously aged, but of course it is not 10 years old in time, which is more in line with the characteristics of 3-5 years of tangerine peel. At the same time, from the point of view of skin color, there is a mixture of green skin, green skin, two red skin and even floor skin, etc., which is inconsistent with the traditional classification of Xinhui skin (green skin, two red, big red, etc.). Therefore, Lao Li deduced that although these skins are not traditional craft skins, they are mixed with various miscellaneous skins, including the possibility of landing skins.
Lao Li's own collection of ten years of Chen Xinhui tangerine peel.
Lao Li has always believed that the merchants who are still insisting on being authentic Xinhuipi at this time are 10,000 times stronger than those live broadcast Internet celebrities who keep saying that they are losing money and subsidy. From the perspective of these merchants who abide by the rules, they have paid the cost of time, do not make old, do not cheat, and honestly make Xinhui tangerine peel that meets the authentic requirements, and the product must be worth this price.
On the contrary, if the market thinks that it will only pursue "low prices", then it will only force practitioners who conscientiously abide by the traditional rules to deceive, which is why in the context of low consumption in recent years, it is more and more common to replace the new peel with ponkan and mandarin orange peel.
Lao Li believes that the tangerine peel is the first tangerine peel, China's land is vast, and the tangerine peel is diverse, and there is not only one kind of Xinhui tangerine peel that is called tangerine peel. Citrus peels from other regions can also be produced after serious aging, and there is no need to be labeled as a new peel to be traded.
Lao Li always believes in a principle, that is, the basic iron law of "good goods are not cheap, cheap goods are not good".
Back to the above-mentioned big Internet celebrity bringing goods to Xinhui tangerine peel, although the big Internet celebrity said that the people who currently bring goods to him, but all those who have fraudulent actions have paid the result of bankruptcy, but at present, Lao Li can seriously tell this Internet celebrity that he has been in the Xinhui tangerine peel industry for so many years, and he has never seen any counterfeiting and old behavior being seriously dealt with.
Is this an incomplete standard? Or is the system imperfect? Or is it not implemented? Lao Li still doesn't know. But one thing is certain, it is precisely this reality that allows those who are hypocritical to flourish, and even more so that those who guard tradition lose their way to live.