The pension adjustment forecast for 2024 will not rise above 7,000 yuan, and will increase by 8 belo

Mondo Social Updated on 2024-02-21

2024 pension adjustment**: no increase above 7,000 yuan, 8% increase below 3,500 yuan

As we all know, pension is the only stable economy for most retirees, and the amount of pension is directly related to the quality of retirement life in old age. Therefore, starting from February every year, many pensioners begin to worry about the adjustment of pensions, among which the narrowing of the pension gap will continue to be the focus of attention.

That is why some pensioners have raised the question of whether it is possible not to increase above $7,000 and $3,500 to increase by 8% below $3,500 if the pension adjustment is realized in 2024.

At present, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance have not released relevant information on pension adjustments, nor is it the starting window period for pension adjustments (generally in March), but the author believes that the pension adjustment in 2024 may be carried out as scheduled, mainly for the following reasons.

First of all, there are three places in the country that have clearly disclosed the 2024 pension adjustment signal, including Henan, Shanghai, and Sichuan, of which Henan Province clearly mentioned in the ** work report that the pension of retirees will be increased from 2024, which is the most direct and reliable pension adjustment signal. Similar to the pension adjustment in previous years, some places have released pension adjustment signals in advance, and then the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance have announced pension adjustment warnings.

Secondly, the establishment of a regular pension adjustment system, according to the "Social Security Law", the pension of employees must be linked to the per capita wage level and prices of employees. According to the Statistics Office, the economy achieved positive growth in 2023 with a growth rate of 52%, the price of ** up 02%, and positive growth in per capita disposable income, all of which are important for the adjustment of pensions in 2024, which, if not made, may reduce the quality of life of pensioners.

Therefore, according to the above assessment, there are no problems with the pension adjustment in 2024, and it can be said that pensioners are waiting for the official announcement from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance. At present, the focus of discussion is still on whether the overall increase in pension will exceed 38%?Who benefits the most? The main interpretations are as follows.

It is known that the number of pensioners in China is more than 1300 million, the per capita pension is about 3,500 yuan, of which the number of enterprises receiving pensions reaches 100 million, while the vast majority of enterprises receive pensions of less than 3,500 yuan.

Then, some pensioners proposed that the role of the pension is the pension, there should not be too much gap, should be adjusted every year according to the need, increase the lower limit, such as more than 7,000 yuan do not rise, 3,500 yuan below 8%, and gradually narrow the pension income gap. But the ideal is very plump, the reality is very skinny, the feasibility is not strong, and it does not work. The main reasons for this are as follows.

First of all, it violates the principle of pension adjustment. Pension adjustments have been implemented 19 times, but the methods and principles of annual adjustments are fixed and uniform. One of the fixed principles is that there are three types of adjustment for each pensioner: fixed adjustment, indexation adjustment and tilt adjustment. The same thing is that the annual pension adjustment is followed"Pay more, pay more, pay more"The principle that there are many people with high pensions and long working years, and few people with low pensions and few years of service do not get much, which is not in line with the incentive principle of pensions.

If the pension reaches more than 7,000 yuan and does not increase, it is very unfair to those who pay more than they get, because their own contribution efforts are not taken seriously, but are deprived of the qualification to adjust the pension, which is in conflict with the fairness and justice of pension adjustment and incentives.

Secondly, it will reduce the enthusiasm for insurance payment. If the people who pay more and pay the higher grade get less money, and the people who pay less and the lower the grade get more money, it will reduce the enthusiasm of the people who pay more, and eventually lead to the people who pay more and the higher the grade of payment no one cares.

The third is the reduction of the balance of social security. If 3500 yuan is less than 8%, then a pensioner can receive 3500 8%=280 yuan, for the number of people receiving pensions in enterprises, there are about 100 million people, a month of money 28 billion yuan, plus the staff of the retirement department, the adjustment of the increase in pension will be an astronomical amount, which will cause a serious shortage of social security ** balance.

To sum up, the fundamentals of the pension adjustment in 2024 have stabilized, and everyone is currently waiting for good news, but the way and principle of pension adjustment should not change, and the principle is still to follow the three steps of quota, indexation and tilt adjustment, which will continue to contribute to the long-term, and people with high contributions will strive for more money. For more updates on pension adjustments, please ***

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