1. Overview of the coking coal industry.
According to the "Research Report on the Development Trend Analysis and Future Prospects of China's Coking Coal Industry (2024-2031)" released by Guanyan Report Network, the coking coal industry is an important link in the steel industry chain, mainly including coke, steel and coal chemical industries. Coking coal is a coal with a medium degree of coalification, which is classified as coking coal, 1 3 coking coal, fertile coal, gas coal, gas fertilizer coal, lean coal, lean coal, etc. Coking coal is the main raw material for coking, and coke is the product of high-temperature coking after the appropriate proportion of these coking coals, and it takes about 135 tons of coking coal, which is one of the main raw materials for the steel industry. With the development of the global economy and the acceleration of industrialization, the demand of the coking coal industry is growing, but at the same time, it is also facing challenges in terms of resource constraints, environmental protection policies, and safe production.
The mining and production of coking coal is mainly concentrated in China, Australia, Indonesia and other countries. China is one of the world's largest producers of coking coal, but in recent years, coking coal production has gradually declined due to environmental protection policies, safe production and resource depletion. At the same time, due to the quality and problems of coking coal, it also shows the characteristics of large fluctuations.
The development trend of the coking coal industry is closely related to the steel, coal chemical and other industries. In the future, with the recovery of the global economy and the rise of emerging markets, the demand of the coking coal industry will continue to grow. At the same time, due to the tightening of environmental protection policies and the transformation of the energy structure, the coking coal industry will also face a series of challenges and opportunities.
Second, domestic coking coal resources are scarce, and insufficient protective development leads to the scarcity of high-quality resources.
1. China's coking coal accounts for only 20-25% of the total coal reserves
Coking coal is the basic energy and main raw material of the iron and steel industry, and the high quality, stability and sustainability of coking coal are the foundation for the vigorous development of the steel industry. However, it is regrettable that domestic coking coal resources are quite scarce, and the data shows that in 2022, China's proven coking coal reserves will be 275.8 billion tons, accounting for only 20-25% of the total coal reserves, and they are mainly distributed in Shanxi, Hebei, Guizhou, Henan, Heilongjiang, Anhui and other places. Among them, Shanxi is a major coal province in China, with complete coal types and huge reserves, and is an important coking coal production and reserve base in China, with the largest identified resource reserves of coking coal, accounting for 47%, and the average growth rate in the past three years has reached 36%。This is followed by Shandong Province, which accounted for about 8% of the country's total output in 2022, but has an average growth rate of -8 in the past three years7%, the trend of production reduction is obvious. At the same time, the output growth rate of Xinjiang, Yunnan and Heilongjiang is relatively fast, with an average growth rate of more than 10% in the past three years.
Source**: Compiled by Guanyan Tianxia.
Globally, coking coal is also relatively scarce, accounting for only 10% of the world's total coal resources. According to CCTD statistics, 80% of the world's recoverable coking coal resources are concentrated in Russia (41%), China (23%) and the United States (17%), while the rest of the countries account for a relatively small proportion, the United Kingdom accounts for about 7%, Australia, Poland, South Africa and India each account for about 2%, Canada accounts for about 1%, and other countries account for about 3%.
Source**: Compiled by Guanyan Tianxia.
2. China's high-quality coal resources account for only about 35%.
In addition to the small reserves, China's high-quality coking coal resources are also relatively scarce. "Skeleton coal" coking coal and fertile coal only account for about 47%, which is lower than the 60% level required by coking chemical industry, and the rest are coking coal blending, and there is a certain imbalance in the output structure of coking refined coal in China. This is mainly because: according to China's current coal resource management system and mechanism, although in 2012, the main coking coal (including 1 3 coking coal), fertile coal (including gas fertilizer coal) and lean coal were classified as special and scarce coals, but they have not been fully protected in actual development practice. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" and "13th Five-Year Plan" coal industry losses and supply-side reforms, the price ratio of coking raw coal to thermal coal was lower than 1 for a long time0, resulting in the conversion of coking coal to thermal coal sales, resulting in a large amount of waste of coking coal resources with scarce attributes. In addition, the irrational use of local areas, the phenomenon of "fertilizer mining and thinness", and the chaotic development order are also important reasons for the scarcity of high-quality coking coal resources, for example, in Shanxi Liliu, Xiangning and other high-quality coking coal production bases, many small coal mines are mined, resulting in the failure of high-quality coking coal resources there to be effectively protected.
Source**: Compiled by Guanyan Tianxia.
Coking coal is a medium and high metamorphic bituminous coal, due to its limited resource reserves, the growth of production is largely dependent on the pull of demand and the implementation of production increase measures. For the steel industry and the global energy mix, the status and value of coking coal are irreplaceable. Therefore, how to rationally use and protect this scarce resource to achieve sustainable development is an important issue we are currently facing.
3. The demand for coking coal imports continues to grow, and Mongolia has become the largest importer of coking coal in China.
1. Mongolia and Russia are the main import areas of coking coal in China.
Due to the scarcity of coking coal resources, coupled with multiple factors such as strong domestic demand, uneven regional supply and demand, and the advantages of imported coking coal, China's coking coal import demand continues to grow.
From the perspective of importing countries, Mongolia, Russia, Australia, the United States and Canada are the main importers of coking coal in China. Before the ban on Australian coal customs clearance in 2021, China was the most dependent on Australian coking coal imports, accounting for 40% of the total year. However, at the end of 2020, due to tensions between China and Australia, China banned coal imports from Australia, resulting in a rapid decline in Australian coal imports, accounting for only 34%。After the embargo on Australian coal, Mongolia and the Russian Federation quickly became the main import regions of China's coking coal, and the proportion of imports from these two regions remained stable overall. It is worth noting that Mongolia quickly replaced Australia as the main importer of coking coal in China after 2021. The United States and Canada have relatively small imports, but their share of imports has also increased after the Australian coal embargo. However, compared to Australia, these regions have fewer coal resources, relatively poor coal quality, and continue to be affected by the impact of the epidemic on production and capacity, so they cannot fully fill the gap caused by the Australian coal embargo.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, from January to November 2023, China's total import of coking coal was 9,063220,000 tons, an increase of 3,325 year-on-year860,000 tons, an increase of 58%. Among them, China imported 4740 coking coal from Mongolia290,000 tons, an increase of 2,580 year-on-year020,000 tons, an increase of 119%, accounting for 52% of the total imports3%。
Data**: Ganglian data, compiled by the world.
2. Mongolia's coking coal is of excellent quality and is a strong link driving energy cooperation between the two countries.
Mongolia has abundant coal resources, with a complete range of coal varieties, covering almost all types of coal. Among them, coking coal resources are particularly eye-catching, accounting for about 35% of the total reserves. Most of Mongolia's coking coal is low-sulfur and low-ash high-quality coking coal, which is easy to wash, and the washing rate usually reaches more than 80%. In contrast, the sulfur content of coking coal in China is generally high, and low-sulfur high-quality coking coal is in short supply. Considering the geographical advantages of Mongolia bordering China by land, almost more than 90% of Mongolia's coking coal is exported to China, and a small amount of resources are exported to Singapore, South Korea, Russia and other countries.
In terms of distribution, coking coal is mainly concentrated in the south-central and western regions of Mongolia, which are close to the central border of China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The main coal mines are Tavin Tolgoi Coal Mine (TT Mine), Nalin Suhaitu Coal Mine and Aobat Tolgoi Coal Mine. Among them, the Tavin Tolgoi Coal Mine is the world's largest open-pit coking coal mine that has not yet been fully developed, and its coal has a moisture content of only 06%, ash 22%, sulfur at 05%-0.Between 8%, the calorific value is as high as 209-23.0MJ kg, excellent quality. The mine's main mining area is divided into eight mining areas, one of which is a provincial mining area and the rest is managed by the Mongolian Energy Company.
Production of key coal mines in Mongolia.
Data**: Organized by Guanyan Tianxia Data Center.
In China, coking coal imported from Mongolia is mainly transported by road. The import ports are mainly Ganqimaodu and Ceke ports, of which the import volume of Ganqimaodu has long accounted for more than 60% of China's total coal imports from Mongolia. In addition, some coal imports were also made at the ports of Mandula, Takshiken and Zhuengadabuqi, but the overall volume was smaller. This distribution pattern reflects China's strong demand for Mongolian coking coal and the close connection between the two countries in terms of energy.
Guanyan Tianxia analysts' view: Although Mongolia has become the first choice for China's coking coal imports, high-quality coking coal is still mainly dependent on China and Australia, the domestic market demand for high-strength coking coal has not been fully met, and high-quality, highly substitutable coal resources are scarce.
Fourth, the growth space of coking coal is limited, and supply and demand are still tight.
Supply side: The first coking coal is affected by a combination of factors. In terms of production, domestic coal companies are continuously strengthening technical investment and safety management, aiming to improve production efficiency and safety. Looking forward to 2024, under the strict requirements of safety supervision, it is difficult to increase the amount of coal production area significantly, and after excluding external factors such as open-pit coal mines and long-term shutdown coal mines, the production area will still maintain a tight situation, and it is expected that the future coal production increase space will be relatively limited, and the output of coking coal will remain stable.
In terms of transportation, although the domestic coal transportation network is gradually improving, there are still transportation bottlenecks, especially during the peak demand season, and the transportation pressure is particularly prominent.
In terms of imports, Mongolia, as the main country of coking coal in China, has excellent coal quality and competitive advantages. However, due to the influence of geopolitics and policies, there may be fluctuations in future import volumes. Although imports will expand in 2023 to meet domestic consumption demand, net imports are expected to gradually fall back to around 70 million tonnes as coal consumption in the steel industry falls.
On the demand side: coking coal is mainly used in steel, coking and other industries, and with the steady development of China's economy and the acceleration of industrialization, the demand for coking coal in these industries will continue to grow. In particular, with the promotion of new urbanization and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, the steel, coking and other industries will usher in new development opportunities and further stimulate the demand for coking coal. In 2023, crude steel production will increase, and it is expected that with the deepening of supply-side reforms, the production control policy will be tightened, and crude steel output is expected to be 10 in 2023 and 2024 respectively3.6 billion tons and 102.1 billion tons.
Balance between supply and demand: Coking coal consumption is expected to be 59 and 57.3 billion tons, consumption declined with the tightening of crude steel production, and supply and demand are expected to remain tight in the future.
Coking coal supply and demand balance.
Data**: Organized by Guanyan Tianxia Data Center.
Guanyan Tianxia analyst view: the national coking coal production is mainly stable, in the first half of the year, large mines and small mines have increased output, but high output brings potential safety hazards, Shanxi mining disasters are frequent, resulting in a decline in output and operating rate, it is expected that by May this year, safety production is the primary task, and the output is difficult to release significantly. In 2024, the coking coal production capacity is planned to increase by 16 million tons, but the reduction of main coking coal resources will affect the main coking coal ** and increase the gap with non-main coking coal**. Combined with the strict requirements of safety inspections, it is expected that the output of domestic coking coal will remain stable next year, and may even be reduced in stages, and the market needs to pay attention to the dynamic balance between safety and safety. （lzc）