After entering 2024, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bureau of Statistics have successively announced a number of good news about pensions. The work report of Henan Province also clearly stated that it is necessary to continue to raise the pension of retirees. Judging by these news, the pension ** in 2024, that is, the "20th consecutive rise" of the pension, is indeed becoming more and more stable. What is the good news?
A few days ago, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced a series of good news about pensions at the press conference. First, last year's pension insurance, work-related injury, unemployment and other three insurance revenues and expenditures were stable, and the total income in 2023 will be 79.2 billion yuan, with an expenditure of 70.9 billion yuan, the current balance is 830 billion yuan, and the cumulative balance is 824 trillion yuan. This shows that China's income is stable and there is sufficient ability to pay. In fact, the basic principle of the basic pension insurance for employees formulated by the state is to pay a fixed income, a slight balance, and leave a part of the accumulation, and the current balance can still cope with many risks.
Second, the national overall planning of pension insurance continues to advance. In 2023, the last few places such as Beijing and Shanghai will also be connected to the national social security information system, which has played a good role in the unified management of China's pension insurance. It also facilitates the movement of participants throughout the country. In the future, the adjustment of pension treatment will be closer and closer, and eventually tend to be unified.
The third is to promote the entrusted investment of basic pension insurance, and by the end of 2023, the scale of investment and operation will be 186 trillion yuan. This is conducive to the realization of China's pension insurance ** value preservation and appreciation, after all, although the money is stable in the bank, but the income is also lower. In the long run, ** entrusted investment and operation will obtain higher returns.
Recently, the Ministry of Finance also announced several good news. First, the state's financial subsidies for basic old-age insurance are getting bigger and bigger. In 2023, a financial subsidy of 1,000 billion yuan will be arranged for the basic pension alone. This is only a subsidy at the ** level, and if you count the local level, the scale will be even larger. According to the 2022 national social security income final statement, in 2022, the financial subsidy income of the basic pension insurance for enterprise employees will be about 710 billion yuan, the financial subsidy income of urban and rural residents' pension insurance will be about 344 billion yuan, and the financial subsidy income of the basic pension insurance of government institutions will be about 591 billion yuan.
The second is to promote the national overall planning of pension insurance. The most important feature is that the balance of pension insurance throughout the country has been reasonably adjusted. This is not the same as the basic pension insurance adjustment system for enterprise employees, the overall adjustment scale in 2023 is 271.6 billion yuan, and the adjustment ratio should be 4About 5%. The adjustment of the accumulated balance can give full play to the role of the accumulated balance to ensure that the pension insurance is paid on time and in full. In particular, the cumulative balance of pension insurance in Heilongjiang Province has been negative for many years, and it will be negative at the end of 2022100 million yuan. In the same period, the cumulative balance of Guangdong Province reached 15,722700 million yuan.
The third is to strengthen the management of pension insurance. It is mainly by standardizing the revenue and expenditure behavior of various places, promoting more fair and reasonable financing and treatment policies, and promoting a fairer and more sustainable pension insurance system. In fact, there are indeed many inconsistencies in the pension insurance treatment policies and revenue and expenditure behaviors in various parts of the country, which need to be standardized. For example, in the past, in Shenzhen and Xiamen, the lower limit of the minimum payment base was determined according to the minimum wage, but they could enjoy the preferential care policy of pensions. Because according to our pension calculation formula, even if the contribution base is 0, it can accumulate 0The basic pension treatment of 5% of the average social salary in the previous year of retirement is indeed more reasonable after the unification of treatment standards.
Up to now, the cumulative balance of the national basic pension insurance for employees has been close to 6 trillion yuan, which can ensure the timely and full payment of pensions for the elderly. Through the above news, we can understand that the "20th consecutive rise" of pensions is indeed becoming more and more stable.
In fact, the social insurance law has long been clearly stipulated, the state to establish a normal adjustment mechanism for basic pensions, according to the average social wage growth and prices, timely increase the level of basic pension insurance benefits.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents in 2023 will be 39,218 yuan, a nominal increase of 63%, deducting ** factors, real growth of 61%。That is to say, the price of ** is 02%。In addition, in 2023, China's wage income will reach 22,053 yuan, an increase of 71%。The growth rate in 2022 is only 49%。There is the bottom of wage income and prices, and there is a precedent for pension adjustment for 19 consecutive years, so it is unlikely that the "20th consecutive rise" of pensions will be canceled.
However, in recent years, the pension adjustment has been showing a gradual downward trend. For example, from 2008 to 2015, the adjustment rate of the basic pension of corporate retirees was always 10%. In 2016, the unified adjustment of enterprises, government agencies and institutions was implemented, and the comprehensive adjustment range was 65%。In 2017 and beyond, the adjustment rate has been reduced year by year to the current 38%。
It is true that the wage increase in 2023 will be better than in 2022, but then again, in 2023, our population will decrease by 2.08 million again, and more importantly, the elderly population over 60 years old will increase by 16.93 million people. In other words, the degree of aging is further intensifying. In order to cope with the "retirement wave" of the population born in 1962 and 1973, it is difficult for us to return to the previous state of rapid growth of pensions. Therefore, it is estimated that the pension increase in 2024 will be 35%~3.8% between it.