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In the coming week, we will witness a military operation of historic significance. Led by NATO's Allied Commander in Europe, Cavoli, NATO's 31 member states and Sweden, which is awaiting NATO membership, will participate in a four-month military exercise with 90,000 troops, making it the largest since the Cold War. The statement of the chairman of the NATO military committee, Powell, shows that NATO countries must be ready for a possible full-scale war with Russia in the next 20 years. Although this indicates that NATO will use Russia as the main battlefield, this exercise is aimed at calming the mood of NATO member states in addition to targeting Russia. So, why do you say that? From the analysis of the current situation, we can see that the likelihood of a head-on war between NATO and Russia in the short term is very low. NATO did not dare to intervene head-on because of Russia's nuclear ** after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, and it has been two years since the situation is still the same. In the same way, Russia does not have the will to enter into a conflict with NATO, after all, NATO, unlike Ukraine, and even if the conflict in Ukraine ends quickly, Putin needs to repair the internal and external situation. However, despite the low probability of war, NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Poland, the three Baltic states, and Germany, remain wary of Russia. Poland had agreed to the stationing of German troops on its territory for the first time since World War II; Estonia also called for "being ready for the coming war"; The German Ministry of Defense recently even speculated that "Russia will attack NATO this year." These words and deeds reflect their fears. Although they are well aware that the likelihood of a war between NATO and Russia is low, they remain concerned about two issues: First, as Russia expands its western territory and Finland joins NATO, more than 1,000 kilometers of new borders will be added between the two sides, and future geopolitical competition will also increase. These countries generally have less military power than Russia, so they may be at a disadvantage in the competition; Secondly, combined with the actions of the United States in recent years and a series of attacks on China by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, it can be seen that the inner circle of NATO, represented by Biden, has begun to set its sights on the Asia-Pacific region. Once the United States turns to the Asia-Pacific region, the European theater will reduce strategic resources, and European countries are worried about their inability to meet the challenge of Russia. Therefore, some countries are constantly inciting the possibility of a war between Russia and NATO in order to push NATO to concentrate strategic resources in Europe. Therefore, this large-scale military exercise is first and foremost aimed at reassuring NATO member states and reassuring them that NATO will always fully fulfill its responsibilities against Russia; The second is to put pressure on Russia. After all, for Biden, who is a strong supporter of Ukraine, it will not be good news for him if Russia emerges victorious in the conflict in Ukraine, and he also needs to take action to maintain his prestige.
NATO has held a military exercise of unprecedented scale in Europe, which means that the coming week will be a historic moment. The exercise, led by NATO's Allied Commander in Europe, Cavoli, and involved 31 NATO member states and Sweden, which is awaiting NATO membership, was attended by 90,000 people. This military exercise is considered to be the largest military exercise held by NATO since the end of the Cold War, and it has attracted much attention. The chairman of the NATO military committee, Powell, made it clear that NATO countries must be ready for the possibility of a full-scale war with Russia in the next 20 years. The scale and purpose of this military exercise show that NATO has identified Russia as the main battlefield, and confronting Russia has become the main task in the future.
However, in addition to being aimed at countering Russia, the exercise also has the purpose of calming the emotions of NATO member states. Although the likelihood of a frontal war between NATO and Russia in the short term is extremely low, NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe remain concerned about the threat from Russia. Poland, the three Baltic states and even Germany are jealous of Russia. Poland agreed to the stationing of German troops on its territory for the first time since World War II; Estonia called for increased combat readiness to prepare for the coming war; The German Ministry of Defense even speculated that Russia would attack NATO this year. Despite the low probability of a war between NATO and Russia, these countries are still worried about two issues. First, with Russia's expansion of its western territories and Finland's accession to NATO, more than a thousand kilometers of new border lines between the two sides will be added to the geopolitical game in the future. The military strength of these countries is generally inferior to that of Russia, and they may be at a disadvantage in the game. Secondly, taking into account the actions of the United States in recent years and the offensive rhetoric of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on China, it can be seen that the inner circle of NATO, represented by Biden, has turned its attention to the Asia-Pacific region. Once the U.S. focus shifts to the Asia-Pacific region, the European theater of war may reduce strategic resources, and European countries will have difficulty coping with the challenge from Russia. As a result, some countries are trying to push NATO to concentrate more strategic resources in Europe by constantly hyping up the possibility of a war with Russia.
This military exercise is first and foremost aimed at reassuring NATO member states and reassuring them. NATO has been doing its best to guard against Russia and ensure the security of its member states. Despite the low likelihood of a conflict between NATO and Russia, the concerns of NATO member states about Russia cannot be ignored. They are worried not only about their own security, but also about the impact of Russian expansion on the whole of Europe. Thus, by holding large-scale military exercises, NATO is trying to send a clear signal to its member states that NATO is always ready to respond to any possible challenge and to maintain a high level of vigilance.
We can see that Poland has agreed to the stationing of German troops on its territory, which shows Poland's fear of Russia. Especially for the first time since World War II, this decision means that Poland is facing up to security threats and seeking to defend itself against potential Russian threats with other NATO members. Estonia's call to strengthen combat readiness also shows their concern for Russia.
In addition, in order to reassure NATO members, NATO needs to reassure them that it will not favor the Asia-Pacific region in the allocation of strategic resources. In recent years, the focus of US policy has gradually shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, and some countries in NATO's inner circle are worried that this may lead to a reduction in strategic resources in the European theater. In particular, Stoltenberg's series of offensive remarks against China at the Davos forum have caused some concern. Therefore, the military exercise is also intended to send a message to these countries that NATO remains committed to European security and will maintain a high level of vigilance against Russia.
In addition to reassuring NATO members, NATO's military exercises are aimed at putting pressure on Russia. In recent years, Russia's actions in the conflict in Ukraine have been condemned by the international community, especially after the outbreak of confrontation in Ukraine, which annexed the Crimea region of Ukraine and supported some separatist activities. For NATO, Ukraine is an important partner and provides a front line against Russia.
However, if Russia emerges victorious in the conflict in Ukraine, this may not be good news for Biden, who is a strong supporter of Ukraine. Biden needs to act to preserve his prestige and send a tough stance to Russia. Therefore, NATO's military exercises will put some pressure on Russia, showing that NATO will not tolerate more victories for Russia in the Ukrainian conflict. This helps safeguard Ukraine's interests and sends a strong warning signal to Russia.
All in all, the current situation seems to make it very unlikely that a head-on war between NATO and Russia will break out in the short term. However, NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe remain apprehensive about Russia. Therefore, NATO's military exercises are aimed at calming the emotions of these member states, reassuring them and putting some pressure on Russia. The exercise will lay the groundwork for a future security landscape and provide NATO members with a united force to counter any potential threats.
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