Editor's note:On February 5, 2024, it was hosted by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University (Renmin University Chongyang)."Seize every opportunity and take the initiative to take the initiative" The 4th (2024) Chongyang Spring Festival Forum of the National People's CongressIt was successfully held in Beijing. Nearly 40 full-time, part-time and part-time experts and scholars from Chongyang University of the National People's University gathered together to talk about new achievements and new responsibilities in the new era. Former Special Envoy for the Middle East and Senior Research Fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of ChineseWu CiscoSpeaking in the keynote speech session, the following is a transcript of his speech:
Wu Cike, former special envoy to the Middle East and senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of ChineseThe situation in the Middle East in 2023 has been full of ups and downs, showing complex and changeable characteristics
The first half of the yearSaudi Arabia and Iran have reached a historic rapprochement under the impetus of China, setting a new model for political settlement of hotspot issues, and then setting off a "wave of reconciliation" in the Middle East, which has attracted worldwide attention. However,In the second half of the yearThe outbreak of the military conflict in Gaza has lasted for nearly four months, causing a serious humanitarian disaster in Gaza, and the spillover of the conflict has posed a serious threat to regional security and even the global economy. According to data released by the health department of the Palestinian Gaza Strip a few days ago, since October 7 last year, the Hamas forces launched a surprise attack codenamed "Al-Aqsa flood" on Israel, and Israel announced a general mobilization for war on the same day, and a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out60,000 tons of ammunition, military operations have caused more than 260,000 people died, more than 60,000 were injured, and 1.9 million** were left homeless. According to Israel, more than 1,300 Israelis have been killed in the clashes and more than 130 Israelis are still being detained.
Judging from the intensity, duration, and number of people in the war, the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has surpassed the Fifth Middle East War in 1982, becoming the most serious military conflict between Palestine and Israel, and the most fierce war in the past 50 years since the October War in 1973. The war continues, with Allah in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria militias and the Houthis in Yemen supporting Hamas's attacks on Israel, launching more than 160 missile and drone attacks on US military bases in the Middle East that support Israel in the conflict.
Since the outbreak of the conflict, Israel has set three major objectives of military operations, which have so far not been achieved: the elimination of Hamas, the release of all detainees, and the fact that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a security threat to Israel, that is, the Gaza Strip must be demilitarized and placed under Israel's "full security control".
The deep-seated causes of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
As the world's longest-lasting and most complex regional problem, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has complex factors such as religion, culture, and other factors, and the two sides have put forward exclusive sovereignty claims over the same piece of land. Palestinian ** Abbas said that the reason for the outbreak of the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict is Israel's "unjust" treatment of the Palestinians, and UN Secretary-General Guterres also said that "there is a reason" and was violently attacked by Israel. But actually,The root cause of this conflict is the delay in advancing the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. Especially in recent years, Israel's far-right** policy has become increasingly tough, Jewish settlements have been increasing, with more than 300 official and unofficial settlements, and the number of settlers has grown rapidly to 750,000. Jerusalem alone has 11 settlements with 22 inhabitants50 thousand. In addition, since 2023, the repeated provocations by Jewish settlers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, and the killing of Palestinians by Israeli forces in the West Bank, have led to the continuation and gradual escalation of violent clashes between the two sides.
At the same time,U.S. policy in the Middle East is also an important trigger for Hamas's retaliation. The United States has long favored Israel, and after Trump took office, his policy has regressed, and Biden has continued Trump's Middle East policy, bypassing the Palestinian issue to push for the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and downplaying the Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia is the most influential Arab and Islamic country, and if Saudi Arabia takes this step, the Palestinians will feel even more desperate and take risks as the only option.
This round of the Gaza conflict proves once againThe long-delayed question of Palestine remains a core issue in the Middle East, and there can be no lasting peace in the Middle East unless it is resolved. Hamas has been dealt a heavy blow, but it will not be easy for Israel to achieve its goal of completely eradicating Hamas.
The spillover of the conflict has triggered a new round of instability in the region
After the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the escalation of the situation in the Red Sea is of particular concern to all parties. The Houthis began attacking Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea waters in November as a sign of support for the Palestinians. The United States led the formation of an "escort coalition" in December last year and issued an ultimatum to the Houthis earlier this year, but failed to deter the Houthis. January 12thSince then, the United States and Britain have launched more than 10 rounds of air strikes against Houthi targets, causing many casualties. The Houthis, for their part, fired missiles at U.S. and cargo ships in the Red Sea, saying that in view of the air strikes launched by the United States and the United Kingdom, ships of the two countries have become "legitimate targets" for Houthi attacks. January 17thThe United States** announced that it would reclassify Yemen's Houthis as a "Specially Designated Global Entity." Of particular concern is:January 28The "Tower 22" of the US military base in northeastern Jordan was attacked by drones, killing 3 US soldiers and injuring more than 40 others. As an act of retaliation,February 2ndThe U.S. military carried out airstrikes on more than 85 targets in Iraq and Syria and declared that this was only the first wave of retaliation.
How long will the military conflict last? Will it expand again? These are two issues that have attracted much attention. Judging from the current state of war, it is very difficult for the Israeli side to achieve its planned goals by force alone.
Although Hamas has achieved some political aspirations, it cannot afford to pay a greater price and hopes to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible. The Arab countries of the region do not want to get involved in the conflict and hope for an early ceasefire. Although the United States fully supports Israel, it does not want the conflict to expand and does not want to be dragged into a quagmire, and the United States and Iran, which have long been hostile, have also expressed their intention to not engage in a direct conflict. The United States' near-term consideration is this year, but it is reluctant to invest more in the Middle East due to its "great power game" strategy. The prolongation and spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has disrupted the US strategic deployment in the Middle East, reflecting to a certain extent the failure of the US Middle East policy. Both sides of the Palestinian-Israeli warring are facing unbearable attrition, and there is a possibility of temporary compromise. Recently, it has been reported that the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Israel have made progress in the talks in Paris, and exchanged a two-month ceasefire for detained Israeli personnel.
China's Diplomacy and Related Reflections since the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict
Since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, China has actively carried out diplomatic mediation, making unremitting efforts to cease fire and stop hostilities and avert a more serious humanitarian catastrophe through head-of-state diplomacy, presiding over high-level meetings of the Security Council, and receiving delegations of foreign ministers of Islamic Arab countries to visit China. China's Middle East diplomacy has demonstrated fairness, justice and the demeanor of a great power, and its role has attracted the attention of all parties, which has been highly appreciated by the international community, and its solidarity with a large number of Arab and Islamic countries has been further deepened.
New features of this military conflict have also emerged that deserve attention. In previous wars, it was difficult for non-armed groups to confront the national army head-on. In particular, the United States, Israel and other military powers and non-leading armed groups have formed a generation gap in equipment, technology and other aspects, which can easily cause a crushing situation. And now the high-tech ** has begun to popularize, in the past, only developed countries had the advanced, now the armed group can also have, and the armed group also takes advantage of the geographical advantages to show that it can fight a good war, and its military strength should not be underestimated.
With its special strategic position and resource endowment, the Middle East has always been a place of contention among major powers. The countries of the Middle East are strategic partners in the rejuvenation of our nation, and the Middle East can become a strategic support for China to deal with the great power game.