In 2023, the overall trend of coal ** will remain high, the domestic thermal coal ** will first decline and then rise, and the fluctuation range will narrow, the domestic coking coal ** will show a V-shaped trend, while the anthracite ** will be the overall ** and slightly lower trend. The agency believes that the coal industry has entered a relatively stable period after experiencing a surge in the early stage, and the operation and profitability of coal companies have also maintained strong resilience after a large increase, and the sector investment is both offensive and defensive and cost-effective.
The reform of central enterprises has helped improve the valuation of coal stocks
In terms of policy, on January 24, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) said that it would further study the inclusion of market value management in the performance appraisal of the person in charge of the enterprise, and guide the person in charge of the enterprise to pay more attention to and pay more attention to the market performance of the listed companies it holds.
Most of the coal companies are central state-owned enterprises, which are expected to usher in value restoration. Zuo Qianming, an analyst at Cinda**, believes that in the next 3 to 5 years, the pattern of tight coal supply and demand has not changed, and high-quality coal companies still have high barriers, high cash, high dividends, and high dividends.
At the moment, the high dividend characteristics of coal stocks are the most attractive. Zhang Xucheng, an analyst at Open Source, believes that "if the stock price of the coal sector rises, the dividend yield will fall, and when the dividend yield falls back to the bank long-term loan interest rate, the funds of the sector may be diverted, so the difference in the dividend yield is the first space of the plate; Second, there is an expectation of increasing the dividend ratio. In the context of the continuous high profitability of the coal industry, increasing the dividend ratio has become a general consensus in the industry, and more and more companies have begun to implement it. ”
The coal sector has both offensive and defensive investment
* In terms of 2023, China Shenhua expects a net profit of 57.8 billion yuan to 60.8 billion yuan, down 126% to 169%；The net profit after deducting non-profits is expected to be 61.3 billion yuan to 64.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 85% to 128%。In this regard, Zhang Xucheng believes: "China Shenhua is a model of low valuation of the coal sector, its current static PE in 2023 is more than 10 times, with China Shenhua as the anchor for the valuation of the sector, the stability of the performance of other coal companies has been improved and the dividend ratio has generally increased, and the overall valuation of the coal sector is expected to approach China Shenhua." ”
In addition, China Coal Energy had a net inflow of 4984 main funds on the 31st110,000 yuan, the net inflow hit a new high since September 5, 2022, with a net inflow of 8,363 for 3 consecutive trading days770,000 yuan. The disk shows that on January 31, China Coal Energy went against the market**142%, and the stock price closed at 12$16 shares.
On the 31st, a senior investment consultant of Huatai ** told the reporter of "Dazhong ** Daily": "From the perspective of PB, at present, the PB of China Coal Energy is only 112 times, in the coal industry and the company's earnings for three consecutive years in a state of high prosperity, the company's PB has just stood on the net value, indicating that it has become an obvious valuation depression. ”
In terms of investment strategy, Zuo Qianming believes that the current coal sector has high performance, high cash, and high dividend attributes, superimposed on the characteristics of high prosperity, long cycle, and high barriers in the industry, as well as low valuation levels and inverted primary and secondary valuations. Among them, it is recommended to pay attention to China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Xinji Energy, etc., which are coal central enterprises with large room for revaluation and improvement under the promotion of the central reform policy.
Reporter Zhang Cao.